We’re just about halfway through the 2024 NFL season (Ah, the Halcyon days of 16 games when you actually knew there was a real halfway mark, just go to 18 games already, ROGER, so we can even things out again, please, we beg you). At this point, we think we know a good amount about various teams around the league.
But we might not!
Let’s rewind to this time last year and take a look at the standings, to remind ourselves just how different things can be.
This time last year, the teams winning their respective divisions were the Dolphins (❌), Ravens (✅), Jaguars (❌), Chiefs (✅), Eagles (❌), Lions (✅), Falcons (❌) and Seahawks (❌). In other words, if you don’t understand how emojis work, just three of the teams leading their divisions at this point in the season went on to actually win the division.
In Week 8 of last year, Bryce Young and the Panthers beat C.J. Stroud and the Texans. The Jets — without Aaron Rodgers! — were 4-3. The Broncos throttled the Chiefs?!? Week 9 was plenty crazy, too. Josh Dobbs showed up in Minnesota like four hours before the game, thanks to a Week 8 Kirk Cousins Achilles tear and the Vikings still won. The Raiders throttled the Giants to move to 4-5 and hover around the playoff race. The Rams, who would make the playoffs, fell to 3-6 after losing to the Packers (who would also make the playoffs), moved to 3-5 with the win.
There is still so, so, SO much football left to be played. We can readjust our priors for everything we’ve seen so far this year, but don’t forget how much can change from Halloween to Christmas.
Mixon’s got a pretty great matchup on Thursday night, going up against a Jets defense that has held just one team — the Patriots, twice — under 100 total rush yards on the season. His anytime TD scorer number is pretty juicy, so we’re going to do some combo betting at BetMGM with a lower alternate rushing yards total for a nice plus number. Mixon’s gotten 25 or more carries in three of his five starts this season and has hit 100 rushing yards in four of his five starts. He’s a workhorse for Houston and the Texans are treating him as such. The Jets are favored so in theory we could see C.J. Stroud forced to throw more on Halloween, but even if he does, Mixon should find the end zone. Despite missing several games, Mixon has still gotten almost 60% of the Texans carries inside the red zone. He’s failed to score in just one game this season, in the game against the Bears where he got hurt and only got nine carries. If you want to get frisky, you can absolutely move the number up on the alt rushing yards — 100+ would make this a +250 look and 125+ rushing yards would make it a really spicy 5-1 two-leg, correlated parlay.
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The enormity of the Rams win on Thursday against the Vikings can’t be overstated. Los Angeles was engulfed in trade rumors ahead of Week 8, and now, because of how Sunday shook out, finds itself just half a game back of first place. Things could have been even better for Sean McVay’s club if Dallas and Dak Prescott had led a game-winning drive and the Dolphins held on against Arizona. Regardless, the Rams would potentially vault themselves into a tie for first in the NFC West with a win here, obviously dependent on what the Cardinals do at home against the Bears (the 49ers are on bye). It’s a massive game for the Seahawks as well, but I think the Rams’ strengths line up nicely against Seattle and we could see Kyren Williams keep rumbling in a big way here. Notable here: Williams, against Mike Macdonald’s defense in Baltimore last year, ran for 114 yards on 25 carries. Matthew Stafford had a monster game as well, with 294 yards and three touchdown passes. With Cooper Kupp off the block and Puka Nacua back, I think we could see a shootout with the Rams coming out on top of a fun divisional battle.
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Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model revealed its Week 9 NFL score predictions. To check out every exact score prediction for the upcoming games, including what is expected to be a tight Chargers-Browns bout, click here.
The only two really obvious favorite teaser legs on the board, so why not! Joe Burrow called the matchup against the Raiders a “must-win game,” and I’ll take Burrow at home, even without the offense at full health (Tee Higgins and Orlando Brown both were DNP on Wednesday, if they’re upgraded this line could even tick up over the weekend, so I like it now) against a Raiders team that feels on the verge of checking out. The Bengals struggled out of the gate, but looked sharp against bad competition before getting smoked by the Eagles last week. The Bills have a much tougher matchup, but they’re still at home in a key divisional game, and Josh Allen/Sean McDermott have thrived on putting a stranglehold on their AFC East opponents over the last few years. A win here wouldn’t technically clinch the division by any means, but it would put — assuming the Jets win Thursday, which is no given — the Bills basically four games up in the AFC East at the beginning of November. Buffalo’s offense looks really sharp and the defense has been miles better than anyone expected.
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I’m also a big fan of CeeDee Lamb’s anytime touchdown number, although it’s a little juicy. The Falcons defense has been fine, but they’ve given up some big numbers to elite wide receivers. George Pickens went for six catches and 85 yards in Week 1 with Justin Fields at quarterback! Devonta Smith (7-76-1), Rashee Rice (10-112-1), Chris Olave/Rasheed Shaheed (16-170 combined), Mike Evans/Chris Godwin (10-126 combined), Diontae Johnson (6-78-1), D.K. Metcalf (4-99-1) and even Cade Otton (9-81-2 with Evans/Godwin out) all had strong games as the focal points of the offense. Lamb is VERY much the focal point of this offense and should have a big day for Dallas, especially with the running back room gutted/old/sick and the run game largely nonexistent. Dallas won’t be able to slow down Kirk Cousins/Bijan Robinson, which should lead to plenty of Dak Prescott dropbacks and Lamb having a massive game. The Cowboys might be bad, but the schedule sets up nicely for Lamb and Dak to put up big numbers.
Bet on CeeDee Lamb props at DraftKings sportsbook.
If there’s a game that can truly get loose on this slate, it’s this potentially epic NFC North battle. Jordan Love said it’s “realistic” he could play against the Lions and has also said he’s “determined” to get on the field, so I’m expecting the Packers quarterback out there on Sunday. When Love plays it opens up the deep ball for the Packers, especially when he’s got all his weapons, as he will on Sunday against a Lions secondary that is opportunistic but can give up some big plays. The Lions run defense has been really good this year, so Green Bay could be forced to abandon the Josh Jacobs train and chuck it around a bit. That’s doubly the case if the Lions offense continues to be dominant and efficient the way it has over the past month. Jared Goff‘s got plenty of time in the pocket and OC Ben Johnson is completely dialed in. This is a battle for the division, make no mistake about it. My one concern is the game is outdoors and it’s the first outdoor game for Goff and the Lions this year. If it gets nasty in Green Bay — temps are a little chilly but not bad and rain is possible — it could slow down the offenses a bit. But we’re talking about two high-powered teams. The Packers have hit 24+ points in all but one game this year and the Lions are *averaging* 43 points per game over their last four.
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