The Texans were the latest team to pull off a major win total turnaround in 2023. Houston will be a hard act to follow, going from a 3-13-1 last-place team in 2022 to a 10-7 division champion last season.
Although improving by 6.5 games from one year to the next is rare, there is a new wave of struggling clubs looking to make immediate 180s into winning records.
Who are the five most likely teams to be “this year’s Texans?” in 2024? We break them down below.
Biggest offseason upgrades: Offenses | Defenses | Coaching staffs
Jim Harbaugh doesn’t waste time turning around programs or organizations. That’s the case whether it’s starting his coaching career at the University of San Diego or continuing it in Los Angeles.
The 49ers improved by seven games when he first took over in 2011, and they were in the Super Bowl by his second year. Michigan was 5-7 in 2014 before Harbaugh came. The Wolverines went 10-3 in his first season and didn’t take long to reemerge as the premier Big Ten powerhouse. That culminated with a national championship in his ninth and final season at his alma mater.
Harbaugh inherits a top young quarterback in Justin Herbert, around which he has provided different, more youthful supporting cast. The defense has some key pieces that can achieve more on every level. The Chargers’ history has been one of consistent underachievement despite capable talent. Harbaugh was hired to rewrite that, stat.
It’s difficult to expect the Chargers to topple the back-to-back reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs in the AFC West, but they can be a strong wild card with a good shot to get to 10-7.
The Commanders have blown things up with GM Adam Peters, now with defensive-minded head coach Dan Quinn leading the team and Kliff Kingsbury scheming for Jayden Daniels and the new-look offense. The organizational vibe is feeling better with new owner Josh Harris, and the on-field results won’t be far off.
Washington should be much improved on both sides of the ball, jumping up from the No. 32 total defense and No. 24 total offense. Quinn and Kingsbury tend to maximize their personnel, with the pass rush and passing game boasting the most upside. The Eagles are likely to rebound back to the top of the division, but the Cowboys are a little shakier and the Giants are messy. The Commanders can take advantage of their schedule to sneak into the wild-card hunt, putting a 9-8 record within reach.
The Jets are a no-brainer pick on this list. With a healthy Aaron Rodgers to boost their offense and a dominant defense, they can get back on track to chase 11-6 and get into the AFC playoffs ahead of either the Bills or Dolphins as a wild card from the AFC East.
Given how atrocious their non-Rodgers QB play was last season with Zach Wilson and others, the fact they got to 7-10 was rather remarkable. Now, they’ve reinforced plenty around and behind Rodgers, including pass protection, and are ready to show their true green with the veteran franchise QB. The pressure is also on Robert Saleh to deliver a winning playoff season in Year 4 to provide that little extra motivation for him and his team.
The Falcons have been stuck on 7-10 for three consecutive seasons. That was the biggest reason they had to let Arthur Smith go as head coach. His replacement, defensive-minded Raheem Morris, brings a lot of buzz from the Rams, along with rising offensive coordinator Zac Robinson.
Kirk Cousins is on track to return from his torn Achilles, pick up where he left off with the Vikings, and keep rookie Michael Penix Jr. on the bench. He can maximize the first-round offensive skill trio of Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson behind a solid line. The Falcons also added unique weapons Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore.
Morris’ influence will be key on the defense as he changes the pass-rushing and coverage mindsets. He didn’t fare well that first time as a head coach with the Buccaneers in the NFC South, but this time, he’s ready to start with a division title at 10-7 or better.
The Bears have a rising young defense under coach Matt Eberflus. That was the established strength from last year that got better as the season progressed, largely thanks to picking up top pass rusher Montez Sweat along the way. They can be dangerous making plays on every level.
But the Bears also should be thrilled about the offensive upside with Caleb Williams replacing Justin Fields as their franchise QB. He also got extra receiving help in Keenan Allen, fellow first-round rookie Rome Odunze, and running back D’Andre Swift. The change to Shane Waldron’s offense with Williams should provide dramatic results, adding explosive passing to good running.
Chicago’s biggest obstacle to a big turnaround will be playing in the tough NFC North, where Detroit is a new NFC power, Green Bay remains tough, and Minnesota will have a rebound on its mind with its own rookie first-round QB. The best the Bears can do then is likely 10-7, but that would get them an NFC wild-card berth.
