It was a thrilling first week of racing at Keeneland, and we can only hope the Wednesday card picks up where things left off. Here are my selections for five of the day’s eight events.
Best bet: Kinetic Control, race 6
Best value bet: Boltage, race 8
Race 2
No. 7 River Ridge (9-2) takes a considerable drop in class here, and speed figures say he can break through against maiden claimers. No. 6 D Day (12-1) looks like the value of the race in his first start for a tag. He made up good ground after a slow start in his lone dirt try. No. 12 Masked Man (7-2, morning-line favorite) was a decently rated second in his career unveiling and lures Irad Ortiz Jr.
How I’d bet it, based on a $100 budget: $2 exacta box 6/7/12, $6 exacta 7/6, $2 exacta 6,7/12, $4 win 6
Race 4
No. 5 Santa Cruiser (12-1) is worth a small shot vs. a suspect favorite as he gets the chance to string together starts for the first time in over a year. He won two of three before an abrupt end to his 2023 campaign and was not beaten by much when last seen. No. 8 Upstriker (15-1) is a bit cheaper than these but has hit the exacta in three straight. He moves up if the top choice withdraws. No. 1 Stage Left (2-1, morning-line favorite) takes a precipitous class drop after losing his jockey when last seen. He was graded-stakes placed only three starts ago, so it’s odd to see him in a $16,000 claimer.
How I’d bet it: $10 win 5, $4 win 8
Race 6
No. 8 Kinetic Control (8-5, morning-line favorite) is a very likely winner of this race if he replicates or builds on the speed figure he earned in an identical spot at Churchill Downs last month. No. 11 Morlock (6-1) picked up his second straight runner-up result in his first route try and fired a sharp tuneup work for this. No. 6 Bracket Buster (20-1) was better at the start last time out than he was at first asking, but he tired late. The recent workouts for this son of Vekoma are encouraging, as is the rider switch to John Velazquez. Don’t be surprised if the stretchout works as he’ll be better able to ration out his speed.
How I’d bet it: $12 exacta 8/11, $8 exacta 8/6
Race 8
No. 6 Miss Enchanted (8-5, morning-line favorite) sandwiched a poor showing two back on an off track with a pair of runaway victories. She steps up in class here but catches what looks like a soft bunch for this level. No. 1 Silver Rose (2-1) split the field vs. similar when last seen and gets respect with Florent Geroux and Brad Cox in her corner. No. 2 Sing a Little Song (6-1) was just beginning to show some promise sprinting before misfiring in the Grade 3 Charles Town Oaks, so don’t dismiss.
How I’d bet it: $12 exacta 6/1, $8 exacta 6/2
Race 8
The finale looks ripe for an upset with so many speed types signed on, so I’ll take a shot with No. 4 Boltage (15-1) shipping from Santa Anita off a March layoff. Geroux climbs aboard for Michael Stidham, who has this one training well and wins at 21 percent with 90-plus-day layoff runners. Lasix is added, too. No. 5 Katheeb (5-1) has run second three straight times at this level and so is hard to leave out of the exotics. No. 1 Green Light (5-2, morning-line favorite) won’t have it as easy up front as he did at Saratoga when last seen, but the speed figures stamp him as a logical contender.
How I’d bet it: $8 win 4, $2 exacta box 1/4/5
Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.