The final Group 1 of the British Flat season features at Doncaster on Saturday and our man fancies an upset – check out the Saturday preview and selections.
Matt Brocklebank’s Value Bet is designed to generatelong-term profitby searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
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Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since the start of 2024 would have produced124.70pts in profit (275pts staked, ROI of 45.34%).
IDEM & AL GASPARO to place 2.55 Cheltenham (5 places)
Take Seaplane to fly home
There might not be a Derby winner lurking in this year’s William Hill Futurity Trophy Stakes but there’s strength in depth to the final Group 1 of the season, and I reckon Doncaster will be delighted with the line-up.
James Owen’s Royal Lodge winner Wimbledon Hawkeye has to top the market really on just about every metric, but he’s not necessarily the one open to the most amount of improvement, with dual all-weather winner Detain, Newmarket runner-up Royal Playwright and the equally well-bred Nebras – a half-brother to the same yard’s Nashwa – all seemingly sitting on a lot of potential too.
Delacroix clearly has to be respected too given his connections and upward trajectory in pure form terms, but I reckon SEAPLANE is made of the right stuff to give them all a run for their money.
He’s not quite got the same flashy pedigree as some of these, but you can absolutely bank on him coping well with the underfoot conditions which still looked quite tough on Friday afternoon and, interestingly, his half-sister Sumo Sam (by Nathaniel) produced one of her career highlights when winning the Group 2 Park Hill over a mile and three-quarters on bad ground at Doncaster.
She’s not the only one in the family who has possessed stamina in abundance as Stag Horn, Stay Alert, Star Rock and Starfala have all been effective over middle-distances and beyond. That suggests we’re dealing with a bit of a freak here in Seaplane, who won his maiden over seven furlongs on the Rowley Mile at Newmarket a month ago, breaking through at the third time of asking following promising seconds at Leicester and Ascot earlier in the year.
The Ascot run was a remarkable effort as he was far too fresh and keen (after 101 days away) through the early stages, but still nearly held on having only been collared close home. It gave a clear indication as to the horse’s considerable engine and, with the outing behind him, the son of Golden Horn duly bolted up last time when palpably in love with the soft surface.
Still a fraction keen very early on that day, Paul and Oliver Cole have decided to fit a tongue-tie for the first time which might help him settle as he goes up to a mile for the first time this weekend. If it works the oracle and he races even more efficiently, then the rest could be in trouble with him to pass, presuming Billy Loughnane tries to dictate matters.
He’s the outsider of the field here but his sectional times from Newmarket compared favourably with the Rockfel Stakes run over the same seven furlongs earlier on the day and it’s no surprise to see Timeform having him up on 117p, just a couple of pounds behind Royal Playwright and Jessie Harrington’s Beresford winner Hotazhell, who are both much shorter in the betting.
The Coles know the time of day with a good two-year-old and it could be significant that Seaplane is the yard’s first runner in this event since River Proud was seventh to Ibn Khaldun 17 years ago.
Earth a solid contender at big price
Earlier on at Doncaster, I’m keen to have GOOD EARTH running for me in the Join Century Racing Club Today Handicap.
Vespasian is the one who first caught the eye, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being the best of these in time, but he lacks a recent run which can’t be seen as a good thing given the conditions, on which the horse is completely untried.
In contrast, Good Earth, who is in receipt of the thick end of a stone from the Crisford horse and market leader Blue Storm, is highly adaptable when it comes to the ground, and I just think he’s being massively overlooked following a down-the-field effort when up against a huge draw bias (stall 18) at York earlier in the month.
The first six home that day were drawn 2, 1, 5, 3, 10 and 4 and those posted higher had next to no chance of being involved in the finish, with Good Earth running about as well as could be expected having at one point led the group on his part of the course.
David Allan was very sensible late on and allowed the seven-year-old to coast home and although effectively 1lb higher here having been nudged up for his previous second to Never Dark at Hamilton, he looks a sprinter who probably remains in top form despite the form figures suggesting otherwise.
In spite of that small rise to a mark of 85, Good Earth isn’t exactly handicapped up to the hilt as he did win five-furlong races off 84 and 89 last year. He’s won twice more this time around and is just the sort of tough, hardened campaigner you want on your side as a punter this time of year.
I also like the booking of Joanna Mason, who has a very tidy strike-rate (4-11) for the Michael Herrington yard and has yet to get the leg-up on this one.
Don’t leave Russell horse out of reckoning
The Masterson Holdings Hurdle is the feature race at Cheltenham but I couldn’t find a bet against Bottler’secret and can happily sit back and watch Gavin Cromwell’s youngster win at a short price.
He’d probably have preferred some rain in an ideal world and the same can be said for a few of the runners in the Pertempts Network Handicap Hurdle too.
Dan Skelton actually had the top three (!) in the antepost betting for this race on Monday and the fact not one of them has been declared shows just how much of a bearing the weather has had on the shape of the race, and I like the look of IDEM, who has an excellent record on a sound surface.
He built on his promising bumper campaign with an excellent first season over hurdles, in which he won three times. The ground was good on two of those occasions, including when cosily landing a 15-runner handicap over the extended two miles and six furlongs at Kelso in May.
That form reads particularly well, with the second and third already on the board this autumn, and Idem has also had a recent spin, finishing second off a revised mark of 124 at Perth last month (replay below).
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Closing at the death having made a mistake three from home and again two-out, he could well have won there granted a slicker round of jumping and one would hope he might be a bit sharper in that department second time out.
It underlined the fact he could certainly be competitive from a mark in the 120s, and I don’t see a further 3lb rise doing his claims any harm here, where the stiff test of stamina and likely strong gallop should help eke even more out of the strong-travelling six-year-old.
De Bromhead outsider worth a dart
THE SHORT GO looks worth a small interest under bottom weight in the William Hill Committed To Top Prices Handicap Chase as well.
He’s the Henry De Bromhead second-string here, according to the betting at least, but Jordan Gainford does have a couple of Cheltenham winners on his CV already and they both came on the chase course so I’m not reading too much into the fact that Darragh O’Keeffe probably got first dibs and went with this horse’s stablemate Senior Chief.
The Short Go obviously doesn’t need top of the ground as he won first time out over fences in testing conditions at Clonmel last September, but he is seen as more of a summer jumper and should be right at home on the ground this weekend.
His jumping was a little bit erratic when stepped back up to this three-mile trip at Kilbeggan last time out, but De Bromhead’s horses nearly always improve in that aspect of the game as they go and he looked a future stayer all over earlier in his career.
Back from two months off here, he’s won twice when fresh in the past and is still unexposed in the hood – as well as over the distance as already mentioned – so a big run would come as no surprise.
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