Value Bet tips: Saturday March 8

1pt e.w. Aviation in 1.50 Sandown at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

1pt e.w. Tapley in 2.25 Sandown at 66/1 (BetVictor, Coral, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

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Tap and go for glory in the Cup

Glorious weather expected for Betfair Imperial Cup day at Sandown Park and the feature handicap hurdle is typically wide-open, with the layers offering 6/1 the field heading into Friday evening.

You might ordinarily think that drying ground would suit the better-fancied ones but the last time this race was run on anything other than soft or heavy ground, the finish was fought out by a couple of 33/1 shots, with a 25/1 third for good measure, and it would be unwise to rule anything out completely as far as I’m concerned.

My first port of call was always going to be King William Rufus as the distinct impression I was left with following his effort at Newbury last month was that we could recoup those losses before the season is out.

After chasing a strong gallop set by Mirabad, King William Rufus was the one who first bridged the gap on the clear leader and there was a brief moment coming to the second-last when it looked like he might pick it up and go on.

In the end, the earlier exertions took their toll and there was no chance he’d be able to live with the thrown-in Joyeuse or classy Lump Sum, who tops the weights at Sandown, but it was a fair effort from the horse.

Prevailing conditions are probably a plus too but Chris Gordon’s stable form in general is a little bit off-putting, as well as the fact all the 20/1 had fully dried up before the time of publication.

The Paul Nicholls-trained pair of Afadil and Sorceleur both made the shortlist too, the latter looking particularly interesting under Harry Cobden and turned out just seven days on from a low-key Newbury performance that surely didn’t see him in his best light.

Sorceleur won twice in two days – both on decent ground – in novice events earlier in the campaign so he must be a pretty hardy horse, and I’m certain he’ll prove to be well-handicapped at some point.

To Chase A Dream and Hardy Du Seuil, one-two at Carlisle earlier in the campaign, aren’t here to make up the numbers either and it’s good to see Brian Hughes making a rare visit to Sandown on a Saturday to ride the former.

Hughes is remarkably 0-21 on the hurdles track at Sandown throughout his career but Paul Collins’ horse was right in the thick of it with Wreckless Eric, Bo Zenith and Spirits Bay at Cheltenham earlier in the season and you can ignore his last run when they crawled and sprinted at Doncaster due to the three hurdles in the straight being omitted.

When it comes to who looks most over-priced, I can’t let TAPLEY go unbacked at such massive odds.

He’s always been pretty consistent in the past but, perversely, the fact he was sent over fences this year and didn’t really take to the new discipline could work in his favour as he’s now been given a proper chance by the assessor again.

Having finished second in last year’s Swinton at Haydock off a mark of 121 and then one better off a pound lower over the smaller obstacles at Plumpton in the autumn, he’s suddenly back down to 121 and I can’t buy the Kempton run over two miles and five furlongs – his first appearance since Boxing Day – as anything other then a tee-up prep for what looks to have been the prime spring target.

He ran quite well on his only previous visit to Sandown a couple of years ago and I’m viewing the return of 7lb claiming rider Elizabeth Gale as a distinct positive as her form figures on the son of Geordieland read 134213428, most of which have come in large-field handicaps.

It’s obviously quite a big ask for Tapley but he’s on a par with 10/1 chance Wreckless Eric on Timeform’s weight-adjusted figures – that pair just 5lb shy of top horse and returning 2024 hero Go Dante – and with every minute of sunshine through the morning, I can only see his chances improving.

Come fly with me…

Earlier on, I’m having a dart at the European Breeders’ Fund Betfair ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final too.

Nicholls has a massive player here in Belliano, who has delivered on the promise of his Chepstow second to top prospect The New Lion in two subsequent starts, but he’s certainly not the only interesting youngster with potential to improve considerably from their current perch.

I’m drawn to Lucy Wadham’s AVIATION, who has until now run at three of the country’s sharper tracks in Market Rasen, Warwick and Fakenham, with the move to a more demanding course surely going to play to his strengths.

A half-brother to Flemenstide, who won a couple of races for Nicholls a few years ago, Aviation was unraced during his early days in the care of Gordon Elliott, before changing hands for €65,000 as part of the Caldwell Construction dispersal.

He’s not done anything wrong in a handful of starts for Wadham but the most eyecatching effort to date came when second behind Reallyntruthfully in a maiden hurdle at Warwick in December.

The winner, who dictated the pace and made all the running that day, was short-headed off a mark of 119 at Hereford last month and has now gone up to 123, so I’m fairly convinced there’s scope for Aviation making his handicap debut off 116 on the back of the two subsequent runs around Fakenham.

He’s another one for whom drying ground should be a plus and I’ll take my chances with the extra places on offer.

Published at 1600 GMT on 07/03/25

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