Value Bet tips: Saturday February 1

1pt win Grand Geste in 1.25 Sandown at 14/1 (bet365, William Hill)

1pt win Rewired in 2.17 Musselburgh at 40/1 (bet365, William Hill)

1pt win Fidelio Vallis in 2.50 Musselburgh at 10/1 (Paddy Power, Ladbrokes)

1pt win Gelino Bello in 3.42 Sandown at 9/1 (bet365, 8/1 General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

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The best horses are obviously running at Leopardstown this weekend but, with one stable bound to dominate the Dublin Racing Festival almost from start to finish, Leopardstown is not necessarily where the best bets can be found.

I’ll focus on the domestic action in Britain and testing ground at Sandown will hopefully throw up the odd surprise result, although I won’t be going near the Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase as the market looks to have it spot on.

Jango Baie could hardly have made a better impression when beating easy subsequent winner Springwell Bay on chasing debut at Cheltenham last month and it wouldn’t be a great surprise if Nicky Henderson’s horse can hold his own against the likes of Ballyburn and Impaire Et Passe – who clash at the DRF on Sunday – come the end of the season.

If you’re into shorties shots then you’ll find worse bets than him in the Grade 1 feature, but I’d rather nibble some of the much bigger prices on offer elsewhere on the card and will kick off with GRAND GESTE in the Virgin Bet Daily Price Boosts Novices’ Handicap Hurdle.

Representing a Joel Parkinson/Sue Smith yard that has been profitable to follow during December and January this winter, like many in Saturday’s field the grey Grande Geste remains lightly raced and no doubt still has his best days ahead of him.

In spite of looking a raw work in progress and future chaser through-and-through, the six-year-old came close to opening his account when running a huge race in second at 200/1 at Carlisle in October, and his two subsequent efforts have left the impression that he’s probably not quite been seen to best effect.

In dense fog at Haydock on December 4, it seemed to pay to be prominent or at least in touch with the leaders throughout that afternoon and Grande Geste was apparently undone by a stop-start gallop which saw him outpaced before ultimately running on for third without being unduly punished.

It was a slightly different story at Uttoxeter later that month as jockey Peter Kavanagh had his (well-backed) mount handy from the off, but he was done no favours by a loose horse early on and was then left a touch flat-footed when the winner quickened it up in what looked another falsely-run race.

The encouraging thing about this weekend’s line-up, especially considering the drop back from three miles to two and a half, is that there are at least three who have tended to race prominently which might lead to a stronger end-to-end gallop. Combined with the gruelling conditions, that really should help bring stamina into play and Grand Geste’s ability to stay further will hopefully prove to be a positive factor.

In addition, I like the fitting of first-time cheekpieces which may just help sharpen the selection up a bit at the business end of the race. The Smith stable has a 2-15 hit-rate with horses introduced to cheekpieces over the past five years, while I’ll go one step further and suggest I love the booking of one of the go-to Saturday men of the current campaign in Gavin Sheehan, who has had a winner, a second and a fourth from his three rides so far for Parkinson and Smith.

With Etalon priced very defensively in the Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Handicap Chase and the Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle about as puzzling as they come, the other one to be on at Sandown is GELINO BELLO in the Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase.

A nine-year-old with very few miles on the clock but more than a hint of back-class, he was a Grade 1 novice hurdle winner at Aintree in 2022 and made a fine start over fences before a fall at Kempton later that year which threw a spanner in the works.

Pulled-up when then tried back over timber in the Cleeve Hurdle two years ago, connections have had to be extremely patient as his Wincanton outing over the smaller obstacles this Boxing Day was his first for the thick end of 700 days.

He shaped nicely too, finishing sixth having been held up early by a 5lb claimer, and while proving more than capable when fresh from a break in the past, it’s hard to imagine the run wasn’t badly needed (had a breathing operation in the summer).

Eased another 1lb in the weights, he’s now able to compete in his first ever handicap chase from a mark of 141, 7lb lower than the official BHA rating he held going into the Kauto Star as a promising six-year-old.

Paul Nicholls would likely have looked to move him on if he didn’t think the horse in question could add to the pot in races of this nature and, with all due respect to Jay Tidball, Harry Cobden getting back on board is obviously a fairly significant upgrade here.

I’d be a backer at 6/1 or bigger, with soft ground of no concern whatsoever.

At longer odds, it could be worth chancing REWIRED in the bet365 Scottish County Handicap Hurdle at Musselburgh.

On the face of it, the seven-year-old is bang out of form and is now stepped up in class – not typically a bet-inducing move, it must be said – but another look at last month’s Haydock run made me reconsider as he shaped fairly well in the circumstances.

This horse, a son of Power, hasn’t shown much aptitude for soft ground since sent hurdling and I just think he’s essentially a bit of a non-stayer when the going gets particularly tough.

So his past two runs in testing conditions (soft and heavy, officially) at the north west venue can be scrapped as far as I’m concerned and, all told since moving to Tristan Davidson from the Richard Newland/Jamie Insole yard, he’s run four just times and been dropped a stone in the weights.

The revised rating of 110 all of a sudden looks quite interesting, given his four handicap hurdle wins for previous connections have come off marks of 110, 114, 115 and 120. The most recent success off 120 was precisely 12 months ago, Rewired racing prominently on that occasion before skipping away on good ground at Taunton.

Prominent racers nearly always have a chance of out-performing market expectations around the tight turns of Musselburgh and, with no more rain in the forecast and the track watering to maintain ‘good to soft’ at the time of writing, a big run from this outsider could be in the offing.

FIDELIO VALLIS will also enjoy the prevailing ground in the bet365 Scottish Champion Chase.

Formerly with Nicholls, he’s had a truncated career since making the move when Harry Derham started up on his own, but he jumped like a bunny and hung in there to win well off a mark of 140 over this course and distance on New Year’s Day last year.

Alice Stevens got a brilliant tune out of him that day and, following two relatively lifeless efforts under 7lb claimer Megan Fox on softer ground so far this season, Stevens is back in the plate and – as luck would have it – the horse has been dropped back to 140.

He’s not the sort I’d dream of backing each-way as he’s far from bombproof but it’s not like he’s past it aged 10 and Derham has also turned to first-time cheekpieces in an attempt to relight the fire in this talented chaser.

The trainer doesn’t have much of a record (0/5) with first-time pieces but I won’t let that put me off, nor the fact that Minella Drama and Kansas City Star seem likely to keep Fidelio Vallis company (if they can keep up!) through the early stages of the race.

Published at 1600 GMT on 31/01/25

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Alice Stevens appeared to get a brilliant tune out of him that day and, following two relatively lifeless efforts under 7lb claimer Megan Fox on softer ground so far this season, Stevens is back in the plate and – as luck would have it – the horse has been dropped back to 140.

He’s not the sort of horse I’d dream of backing each-way as he’s far from bombproof but he’s still only 10 and Derham has also turned to first-time cheekpieces in an attempt to relight the fire in this talented sort.

The trainer doesn’t have much of a record (0/5) with first-time pieces but I won’t let that put me off, nor the fact that Minella Drama and Kansas City Star seem likely to keep Fidelio Vallis company (if they can keep up!) through the early stages of the race.