Value Bet tips: Saturday December 21

1pt win Hartur d’Arc in 3.00 Ascot at 18/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

1pt e.w. Fiercely Proud in 3.35 Ascot at 16/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)

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I can feel my soul ascending

The Grade 1 Howden Long Walk Hurdle is the feature event this weekend but I’m keen to circle back to that at some stage and dive headlong into the best betting race on Saturday, and that’s by far and away Ascot’s concluding two-mile Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle.

Some will inevitably moan that it’s not the race it once was, or that the final turnout of 13 for a £125,000 handicap with a field-size limit of 21 is a clear representation of British jump racing’s current malaise, but I see it as a great betting opportunity, first and foremost.

We have a progressive, front-running Irish raider in Cian Collins’ Impero, a returning second-season hurdler in Alan King’s Favour And Fortune, some hard-knocking handicappers like Kihavah, Our Champ and Tritonic, plus an unbeaten, well-backed four-year-old from the yard of Paul Nicholls in Kabral Du Mathan.

You could easily make a cogent case for the improving top-weight Steel Ally too, seeing as his trainer Sam Thomas seems to waste no bullets in these good handicaps these days, but four of the past seven winners of this event had contested the Greatwood at Cheltenham earlier in the year, and that looks the key piece of form once again.

Be Aware could hardly have made a more promising start to his campaign, finishing half a length behind Burdett Road in second last month, while Dysart Enos wasn’t far off him in third after racing exuberantly and is 3lb better off after that pair were raised 7lb and 4lb respectively in defeat.

Go Dante, who won at Cheltenham last December after being beaten 15 lengths in the Greatwood, lines up here following a 19-length ninth in the same November meeting race, but the one who shaped with a good deal more promise this year was FIERCELY PROUD, and I’d be surprised if he didn’t prove to be very well-handicapped at some stage.

It had been a bit of a nightmare start to the season for Ben Pauling’s horse, who was well punted ahead of his seasonal return at the Showcase meeting in October, only to unseat his rider on the way to post and run loose before having to be withdrawn.

Again popular in the market, Fiercely Proud fell two from home in a good course and distance Ascot handicap in early-November. He had come under the pump at the time but was in a challenging position and it’s hard to state he wouldn’t have played a serious part in the finish had he not come down.

So the Greatwood was the five-year-old’s first completed start of the campaign and, on reflection, he was surely the one to take from the race having stuck more to the inside of the course as the principals came much wider running down the hill and turning into the home straight.

Beaten 12 lengths at the line, on a track Pauling had feared might be too undulating in nature to see him to best effect, that was a fine effort and the assessor has dropped him a pound to a mark of 128 which is a bit of a bonus.

That mark looks generous on several pieces of form from his novice year, including when giving Ryan’s Rocket 7lb and a beating at Taunton last December. That one won his next two starts over timber, plus a recent novices’ handicap chase at Chepstow, before just missing out off a revised mark of 128 at Ascot on Friday.

It’s not hard to imagine Fiercely Proud will love getting back on a right-handed configuration, having won at Market Rasen, Hereford and Taunton (as well as a Listed bumper going the other way around at Cheltenham), and he’s versatile in regards to ground too so certainly won’t mind if the forecast showers turn out to be heavier than anticipated.

On top of all this, Pauling has a good record at Ascot in recent seasons. He’s 0-5 there this year (two placed) but the 2023-24 campaign saw the trainer win four races at Ascot from 19 runners; six others filled the runner-up spot, two were third and one was fourth.

The 16/1 on offer should definitely be snapped up.

Cromwell’s d’Arc the Silver Cup value

Trelawne and last year’s winner Victtorino are the relatively sexy ones in the Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase but at current odds the bet has got to be HARTUR D’ARC.

Trainer Gavin Cromwell almost opened his own Ascot account when Yeah Man pushed Victtorino close in this race 12 months ago and Hartur d’Arc looks massively underestimated on the back of an unlucky run in the Paddy Power Gold Cup on his seasonal return.

Despite an early error, he was still travelling well and had just started creeping into contention four fences from the finish at Cheltenham, when he lost all momentum having to dodge In Excelsis Deo and could never quite get within striking distance afterwards.

The intermediate trip around the Old Course might just have been on the sharp side anyway, especially on good ground, as he ended last year contesting the Irish National at Fairyhouse after winning the Leinster National (3m1f, soft) at Naas.

Stepping back up to three miles is almost certainly in the seven-year-old’s favour and he’s effectively running off 2lb lower here as he’s been eased a pound and was fractionally ‘wrong’ at the weights last month. Conor Stone-Walsh takes off a further 3lb on Saturday and, as the complete outsider of the field, he’s well worth an interest.

Elliott improver has to be feared

I’ve been quite keen to oppose Strong Leader all week ahead of the Long Walk Hurdle – not least as he just looks a bit over-rated after winning a typical end-of-season Grade 1 at Aintree and a four-runner Grade 2 on his Newbury comeback – but finding the right one to back is a conundrum.

I’m pretty confident Kateira would beat the favourite tidily over two miles five furlongs but am yet to be convinced she wants quite this far on a stiff course, while the one I keep coming back to is JP McManus’s new recruit The Wallpark.

It’s very hard to get a handle on just how good he really is as Gordon Elliott’s representative blatantly started out handicaps with a very manageable mark. The October win at Cheltenham came from a revised perch of 145 under 11st 7lb – it wasn’t like he’d snuck into the Pertemps Qualifier off a feather weight, and I reckon he’s well worth his place in this field given his untapped potential.

It’s quite eyecatching to see Charles Byrnes saddling his first Ascot runner for a handful of years too, the lightly-raced Shoot First having won Haydock’s big staying handicap (formerly the ‘Fixed Brush’) on bad ground late last month.

Given he drifted markedly in the betting that day, I suspect the bad ground was a worry and he could also have loads more to offer in this type of event back on a relatively sound surface. Sam Spinner and Paisley Park won the ‘Fixed Brush’ en route to landing this and last year’s winner Crambo – who returns for another crack – had finished third in the same race.

I went round the houses several times before concluding it was probably a no-bet race, although laying the 2/1 favourite (win and place) doesn’t look bad business to me as you’ve got loads of live ones running for you in that scenario.

The closest I came to a bet in what look like being really testing conditions at Haydock was Diol Ker in the Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase.

He’s rapidly becoming incredibly well handicapped if new trainer Evan Williams is able to revitalise the 10-year-old, who does go through bottomless ground better than most, but he jumped particularly ponderously at Warwick last time and even at 33/1 and bigger, I think I’d need to have seen just a fraction more from him to lure me in and part with the cash.

Published at 1600 GMT on 20/12/24

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