1) The Lions have just two games left on their schedule in which, as of now, their win projection falls under 51 percent: vs. the Bills in Week 15 (50.1 percent) and at the 49ers in Week 17 (48.9 percent). They are powered by several standout units that rank highly in the NFL, per computer vision: the offensive line (when Taylor Decker, who is currently dealing with a shoulder injury, is on the field) ranks No. 1; the run game ranks No. 2; the play-calling scheme in the passing game ranks No. 1. Detroit’s defense ranks first in third-down conversion rate allowed (31.4 percent). Trade acquisition Za’Darius Smith doesn’t need to be elite; he just needs to provide enough consistent, reliable pressure to boost a defense that ranks in the bottom third of the league in pressure rate (32.3 percent), per Next Gen Stats. This would enable the Lions to play truly complementary football, enhancing their chances at postseason success. Heading into Week 11, Detroit earns the coveted solo bye in the NFC in 57 percent of simulations.

2) In Week 10, the Eagles supplanted the Commanders atop the NFC East for the first time since Week 1. If they want to gain a stronger hold on the division, they can start by beating Washington on Thursday at home. The Week 16 rematch (on the road) looms as another key date on Philly’s schedule, of course — but it’s far from the only one that can impact the playoff picture, in both the NFC and AFC. Games at Baltimore (in Week 13) and vs. Pittsburgh (in Week 15) can reshape the AFC North race, while a road showdown with the Rams in Week 12 stands as a potential turning point in Los Angeles’ effort to upend things in the NFC West and sneak into the postseason. One fun fact to note: In both the median and ceiling scenarios painted by my model, rookie corners Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean end up performing like the best CB duo in the league. So watch them carefully; the better Mitchell and DeJean play, the likelier it is that Philly will reach its best possible outcome.

3) Yes, in the order we have here, the current leaders of the NFC West end up missing the playoffs. But the truth is, the race in that division is wide open. The return to health of running back Christian McCaffrey and receiver Deebo Samuel, along with continued excellent play from Brock Purdy, helps put San Francisco slightly on top of Arizona in the median projection. However, you will notice that the Cardinals’ projected ceiling (12.8 wins) is higher than the Niners’ (12.2). Arizona is definitely in line to outperform its preseason projected win total (6.9), which was the lowest in the division. Four of the Cardinals’ seven remaining games are divisional matchups, including two contests against the Seahawks — and they have Kyler Murray, whose win share ranks fifth among all QBs through 10 weeks of the season. Arizona makes the playoffs in 49.9 percent of simulations, which means its postseason fate basically comes down to a coin flip.