1) The only remaining game where I do not have the Chiefs favored to win is this Sunday’s matchup against the Bills, and they still win that game in 45.6 percent of simulations. I should note their Week 18 game against the Broncos in Denver could swing to a projected loss if they decide to rest starters. The Chiefs earn the extremely valuable first-round bye in 67 percent of pre-Week 11 simulations. Should they upset the Bills in Buffalo, that number moves up to 78 percent. If they fall to the Bills, they still earn the No. 1 seed in 63 percent of simulations.

2) Lamar Jackson may be the favorite to win MVP honors, but no QB has a higher win-share value this season than Josh Allen. Between the run-first strategy OC Joe Brady has implemented, the offensive line being one of the best in the league and Allen’s unique blend of arm strength/smart rushing, the Bills have been able to not just withstand but thrive. They hold a commanding lead in the AFC East even though they’ve been without top receivers due to injury, undergone big changes on defense — especially in the spine of the defense with new starting safeties — and lost Pro Bowl LB Matt Milano in camp (he could be returning soon). I feel like I need to give a little love to Greg Rousseau, who has really stepped up with 36 pressures (20 of them were quick pressures). The Bills had to deal with cap constraints and lean on their homegrown guys. They’ve delivered.

3) The AFC North race between the Steelers and Ravens is neck and neck and they still have two games to play against each other. This week the Steelers host and on Dec. 21 the Ravens take their turn. The Baltimore pass defense and offensive line project to have the most impact in determining how the rest of the season plays out, even though Lamar Jackson is the front-runner to win MVP (for a third time) AND Derrick Henry is the favorite for Offensive Player of the Year. In my model the Ravens are not currently favored in their Week 17 matchup with the Texans in Houston. We still have a lot of football to play before we get to that game, so this could flip by then, but it forecasts to be a pivotal matchup for their playoff positioning. Well, apart from the two games against the Steelers, that is.