Jayden Daniels was the epitome of trick or treat for us last week. While it was downright stunning to see the Commanders quarterback pull off a game-winning Hail Mary (the treat), it didn’t subside the sting of backing the Bears in that contest (the trick). That was the difference in going 2-3 ATS instead of 3-2 ATS in betting my five locks for Week 8, but it was a thrilling weekend of NFL action, and we’re slated to have another on deck.
As we sit back and chew on some Halloween candy, I’ll try to add a few winners into the mix from the sportsbooks, beginning with my five locks of the week.
Locks of the Week ATS: 20-20
ATS: 53-67-3
ML: 73-50
All NFL odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the latest DraftKings promo code to get in the game.
For a team that’s 7-0, there’s a lot of questions still looming over a Kansas City Chiefs team that hasn’t looked like itself, particularly on offense. Even with these early-season lumps, I’m betting on the tides to turn at some point, and I want to be there when they do. And that could happen on Monday night when K.C. plays host to the Bucs at Arrowhead. Patrick Mahomes has been stellar on “Monday Night Football” in his career, owning an 8-3 record while averaging 286.4 yards passing and totaling 74 touchdowns to just 25 interceptions. With Travis Kelce catching his stride and DeAndre Hopkins another week into the system, this offense should begin to pop.
Meanwhile, the Bucs are down firepower on offense against one of the better defense in football and have struggled in this setting. Tampa Bay is 1-7 ATS in the last eight prime-time games. On “Monday Night Football,” Baker Mayfield is 1-6 in his career.
Projected score: Chiefs 30, Buccaneers 20
The pick: Chiefs -9
The Baltimore Ravens made a big splash this week when trading for former Panthers wideout Diontae Johnson. Here’s my question: Does he play defense? Sure, the Ravens could use some help in the wide receiver room, but it’s the secondary that could prove to be their fatal flaw in hopes of getting to a Super Bowl. This season, the Ravens are giving up a league-worst 291.4 passing yards per game to go along with a 103.5 passer rating allowed, which ranks 29th. While Bo Nix and the Broncos passing attack won’t be remembered as some prolific unit, they’ll be able to move the ball through the air, leaving the backdoor wide open for them to cover this near double-digit spread.
The Ravens are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games as a 7-point favorite or higher. Meanwhile, Denver is 3-0-1 ATS on the road in 2024.
Projected score: Ravens 27, Broncos 20
The pick: Broncos +9
It’s going to become clear that Deshaun Watson was the central figure holding the Browns offense back. Jameis Winston did his best 2023 Joe Flacco impression last week, leading Cleveland to an upset win over Baltimore while injecting life into the team’s passing attack. Winston had 10 completions of 15 or more air yards, which is more than Watson had for the entire season. Of course, Winston is good for a few head-scratching throws in a given game, but the offense is far better with him under center.
Meanwhile, the key for the Browns to pull off the home upset and land into the win column once again will be shutting down Los Angeles’ running game. Over the last three weeks, they’ve fared well in that regard. Against the likes of the Eagles, Bengals and Ravens, the Browns have allowed just 3.6 rushing yards per attempt over this stretch. If they continue that progress in Week 9, they’ll have the Chargers on upset alert.
Projected score: Browns 23, Chargers 21
The pick: Browns +2
A home matchup cluttered within the early slate on Sunday just feels like a spot where Kirk Cousins will dominate. The Cowboys continue to be limited offensively, with CeeDee Lamb the only reliable weapon Dak Prescott has at his disposal. Falcons corner A.J. Terrell is more than capable of limiting Lamb throughout this matchup, owning a 54.1 passer rating against when he’s the primary defender in coverage this season. So, if Atlanta can bottle up Lamb — or simply limit his impact some — I’m not really sure where Dallas goes from there offensively.
On the flip side, the Falcons have a number of weapons at the ready for Cousins, but this could be a game to target Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier rushing props on DraftKings. Dallas is surrendering 154.6 rushing yards per game this season, which ranks 31st in the league. If Atlanta gets up early, they should be able to control the game with that ground attack.
Projected score: Falcons 30, Cowboys 24
The pick: Falcons -2.5
The Commanders have “Team of Destiny” vibes surrounding them through the first eight weeks of the year, and we’re not going to let the hook on this 3.5-point spread scare us away in this spot. The Giants could be down breakout running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. due to a concussion for this game, which I believe will dramatically impact how they operate overall. Tracy was the only reason they were able to move the football on Monday night against Pittsburgh, so to have him potentially absent is a crushing blow, especially against this high-flying Commanders offense.
The Giants are 0-4 ATS at MetLife Stadium this season (0-4) and have failed to cover by 12 points per game, according to CBS Research. Meanwhile, Daniels and the Commanders are 6-0-1 ATS over their last seven games.
Projected score: Commanders 27, Giants 17
The pick: Commanders -3.5
Texans at Jets (Thursday)
Projected score: Texans 23, Jets 21
The pick: Texans +2
Raiders at Bengals
Projected score: Bengals 27, Raiders 17
The pick: Bengals -7.5
Dolphins at Bills
Projected score: Bills 30, Dolphins 23
The pick: Bills -6.5
Patriots at Titans
Projected score: Titans 23, Patriots 17
The pick: Titans -3.5
Saints at Panthers
Projected score: Saints 24, Panthers 14
The pick: Saints -7
Bears at Cardinals
Projected score: Cardinals 24, Bears 21
The pick: Cardinals -1
Jaguars at Eagles
Projected score: Eagles 33, Jaguars 23
The pick: Eagles -7.5
Lions at Packers
Projected score: Lions 27, Packers 23
The pick: Lions -3.5
Rams at Seahawks
Projected score: Rams 27, Seahawks 24
The pick: Rams +1
Colts at Vikings
Projected score: Vikings 27, Colts 23
The pick: Colts +6
