The days of taking home underdogs might be dead.
One of the ways we can see how home-field advantage has lessened is the record of road favorites this season. Taking road favorites this season has been one of the best bets of the NFL season. According to Covers.com, road favorites are 27-16-2, hitting at a healthy 62.8%. For many years, blindly taking home teams getting points was a reasonable strategy. It appears that has changed.
Here’s a look at Week 9 of the NFL season from a betting perspective, with all odds from BetMGM:
It’s surprising to see the Jets favored against any good team. Sure, the Texans have some issues at receiver, with Nico Collins on injured reserve and Stefon Diggs out for the season. But there are other reasons the Texans are 6-2. The Jets? They are 2-6 coming off a loss to Jacoby Brissett and the New England Patriots. Yet they’re 2-point favorites on Thursday night. The line moved on Thursday morning toward the Jets, going from -1.5 to -2. The Jets have talent but that hasn’t led to one quality win yet this season. It’s hard to say a team that pretty much saw its playoff dreams die last weekend will be that motivated, even on prime time. If the Texans lose it would be an upset, no matter what the line says.
Sportsbooks take so much action on the NFL that they don’t usually have games off the board during the week anymore, even if there’s a major injury question. The Packers have a big question. Jordan Love left last week’s game with a groin injury. But Love said he feels better and thinks it’s possible he plays this week. Nobody seems to know yet. No matter if it’s Love or Malik Willis at quarterback for the Packers, they’ll have to keep up with the Detroit Lions and their fantastic offense. The Lions are 3.5-point favorites right now, which is a change from last week’s lookahead line of Packers -1. But if Love is ruled out, it might move more toward the Lions.
Two things work in Nix’s favor this week: The Broncos could be in a bad game script, and the Ravens can’t stop the pass. Nix’s total for passing yards is 213.5. The Ravens are allowing the most passing yards per game in the NFL, and they’re 20 yards clear of the second-worst team. The Broncos are 9-point underdogs against a Ravens team that has one of the best offenses in football. If the Broncos fall behind early, Nix will have to pass a lot, and do so against the team giving up 291.4 passing yards per game. Even if Nix doesn’t play well there’s a path for him to hit 214 passing yards.
We have to look at the Browns as a different team. They were one team with Deshaun Watson at quarterback, and a totally different team with Jameis Winston at quarterback. Since late last season, the Browns are 5-1 in games started by Joe Flacco or Winston. They’re 1-6 with Watson starting during the same timeframe. As long as Watson isn’t playing, the Browns have looked like one of the best teams in football. Oddsmakers aren’t convinced. The Browns are 1.5-point underdogs to the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday. It’s another chance for the Browns to show they are actually a very good team that was being held back by an incompetent quarterback.
The betting market doesn’t believe the Washington Commanders can hold on to win a division title. The 6-2 Commanders lead the NFC East, a half-game up on the 5-2 Eagles. Yet the Eagles are -120 to win the NFC East at BetMGM, with the Commanders next at +135. Both teams are favored this week (Washington -4 over the Giants and the Eagles -7.5 over the Jaguars) so the standings might not change this week. A Week 11 Thursday night showdown between the Commanders and Eagles in Philadelphia will go a long way in determining who wins the division.
At the beginning of the week, the consensus line for Colts-Vikings was Minnesota -6.5. Then the Colts benched Anthony Richardson and the line has moved to Vikings -5.5. It’s clear that Flacco makes the Colts better in the present. The Colts aren’t a bad team at 4-4. Flacco adds a consistency in the passing game that Richardson can’t right now. The Vikings are coming off back-to-back losses and will be motivated to stop that slide, but the Colts will be energized too.
The Chiefs generally win but don’t blow out opponents. They have 22 wins the last two seasons, counting the playoffs, but only six are by more than 10 points. For Monday night, they’re 9-point favorites over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A lot of that has to do with the Bucs being without star receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. They didn’t look great last week without them but did rally to make a loss to the Falcons interesting in the final minutes. It seems like the Chiefs win, because that’s what they do, but can they win by double digits?
