We’re starting to catch our stride. The first month of the season proved to be a slog for our little sports betting window on the internet, but the last two weeks have seen the tides turn. After going 4-1 in my locks of the week for Week 6, those top picks are now 9-1 ATS over the last two weeks.
The lone loss came as we backed the Denver Broncos as home dogs against the Chargers and fell short of covering in the 23-16 loss. Still, it’s been a solid rebound that we’ll look to continue as we turn our attention to Week 7. As always, we’ll begin with my five locks of the week.
Note: Chicago and Dallas are on bye in Week 7
Locks of the Week ATS: 16-14
ATS: 40-49-3
ML: 53-39
All NFL odds via DraftKings sportsbook. Check out the latest DraftKings promo to get in the game.
If you’ve been following these picks throughout the season, you’ve seen me fade the New England Patriots on more than one occasion. Not this week. In his first start, Drake Maye gave the offense more juice than it had in the previous five weeks combined. While it wasn’t perfect, the No. 3 overall pick showed an ability to push the ball down the field and now has an ideal matchup against the Jaguars in London. This season, Jacksonville’s defense ranks 30th in yards per play allowed and is giving touchdowns on 76% of their opponents’ red zone trips (worst in the NFL). Sure, the Patriots defense struggled mightily against C.J. Stroud and the Texans last week, but now they face a Jags offense that is lost, ranking 28th on third down and 22nd in the red zone. Patriots get the first win of the Drake Maye era and might end Doug Pederson’s coaching tenure in Jacksonville in the process.
Projected score: Patriots 23, Jaguars 20
The pick: Patriots +5.5
Bonus: SportsLine expert Eric Cohen already locked in his picks for Week 7. Check out his score prediction for the London game between New England and Jacksonville right here at SportsLine.
There’s going to be a lot of talk about Andy Reid and his stellar record coming off the bye before this matchup with the 49ers kicking off. While Reid is 21-4 in the regular season off of the bye, this isn’t a slam dunk spot for Kansas City. And when you dig a little deeper into the team’s more recent trends following the bye, it’s a bit murkier. In the Patrick Mahomes era (since 2018), the Chiefs are 4-6 ATS coming off the bye. Meanwhile, let’s not forget that the Niners are working off a mini-bye after playing last Thursday. At home, and with the Chiefs still trying to find themselves offensively following several key injuries, this is a solid spot to side with the 49ers.
Projected score: 49ers 24, Chiefs 21
The pick: 49ers -1
These teams come into this matchup on two entirely different trajectories. For the Falcons, they are atop the NFC South and riding a three-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have lost three straight. Naturally, we’ll be siding with the Seahawks here. The Falcons rank 29th in the NFL in pressure rate this season, meaning that Geno Smith shouldn’t be thrown off whenever he drops back to pass. Not only that, but the Seattle offense shouldn’t have a hard time moving the chains, either, as Atlanta ranks 31st in the NFL on third down. Those issues defensively should be enough to keep the Seahawks within the field goal threshold and possibly even pull off the upset. However, we’ll simply take the points here.
Projected score: Falcons 28, Seahawks 26
The pick: Seahawks +3
Don’t look now, but this could be a sneaky Super Bowl preview as two of the brightest young teams in the league duke it out from Lambeau Field. We’ll back the home team here because of their opportunistic defense that leads the league in takeaways. This season, C.J. Stroud has had three would-be interceptions that were dropped by the defender, which is tied for the second most in the NFL among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. Against this secondary headlined by Xavier McKinney, who leads the NFL with five interceptions, any mistake will be taken advantage of. Houston also hasn’t been the most favorable team to back this season, owning a 2-3-1 ATS record, including a 1-2 ATS mark on the road.
Projected score: Packers 28, Texans 24
The pick: Packers -3
The Over is probably the key play here, but this is also a smash spot for Washington, who is 2-0 ATS on the season at home. Carolina’s defense ranks 30th in the NFL on third down and 31st in the red zone. Specifically regarding that red area stat, the Panthers are giving up touchdowns on 75% of their opponents’ red zone trips, so Jayden Daniels is likely licking his chops to get onto the field Sunday. While the Commanders defense certainly could leave the backdoor open here, they are playing an offense that shouldn’t strike too much fear in anyone. The Panthers are 26th in the league on third down and are averaging just 17.2 points per game this season.
Projected score: Commanders 33, Panthers 20
The pick: Commanders -7.5
Broncos at Saints (Thursday)
Projected score: Broncos 20, Saints 17
The pick: Broncos -2.5
Bengals at Browns
Projected score: Bengals 30, Browns 20
The pick: Bengals -6.5
Lions at Vikings
Projected score: Lions 27, Vikings 24
The pick: Lions +2
Dolphins at Colts
Projected score: Colts 26, Dolphins 17
The pick: Colts -3
Eagles at Giants
Projected score: Eagles 23, Giants 21
The pick: Giants +3
Titans at Bills
Projected score: Bills 30, Titans 17
The pick: Bills -8.5
Raiders at Rams
Projected score: Rams 27, Raiders 20
The pick: Rams -6.5
Jets at Steelers
Projected score: Steelers 24, Jets 20
The pick: Steelers +1.5
Ravens at Buccaneers (Monday)
Projected score: Ravens 26, Buccaneers 23
The pick: Buccaneers +3.5
Chargers at Cardinals (Monday)
Projected score: Chargers 24, Cardinals 20
The pick: Chargers -2.5
