As the calendar flipped to October, so did our good fortunes with the gambling gods. After a lackluster opening month of the season, the tides have turned — albeit for the moment — with my best week of 2024 thus far. If you followed each of my five locks of the week, you have a bit more coin in your bankroll, thanks to a perfect 5-0 run in Week 5.
We pinpointed that Week 5 would be the week Jacksonville would get its first win, Miami would roll into Foxborough and bury the Patriots, Chicago would slay the Panthers at home, Denver’s defense would thump the Raiders, and the Packers would get a road win against the Rams at SoFi Stadium. Can’t ask for much more than that. Well, outside of doing it again.
We’ll look to keep that positive momentum going into Week 6 and claw above .500 across the board, beginning with my five locks of the week.
Note: Kansas City, Los Angeles (Rams), Miami, and Minnesota are on bye in Week 6.
Locks of the Week ATS: 12-13
ATS: 31-44-3
ML: 42-36
All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.
As we noted last week, the Patriots are not a good football team. In fact, they might be the worst team in the league. New England is averaging 12.4 points per game this season, which would be the third-lowest in franchise history. Even with Jerod Mayo making the switch from Jacoby Brissett to Drake Maye for this game, it still doesn’t change the problems this team has along the offensive line. Entering Week 6, the Patriots are allowing the highest pressure rate in the league (46.2%). This week, they face a Texans defense that ranks sixth in the NFL in sack rate. Oh, did we mention they have a powerhouse of an offense led by C.J. Stroud? If the Pats couldn’t keep pace with Tyler Huntley, what makes us think they can keep pace with Houston?
Projected score: Texans 30, Patriots 13
The pick: Texans -7
The same logic we applied to last week’s game with the Broncos applies here. This defense is top tier, tied for the fewest points allowed (14.6) and third-fewest yards per game allowed (271.2) this season. They have the highest blitz rate in the NFL and have tallied the third-most sacks in the league thus far as well. The Chargers will be fresher as they are coming off their Week 5 bye, but I don’t think that’ll be enough to lift this offense. Before the bye, L.A. ranked in the bottom half of the league on third down, yards per play and red zone efficiency. Even with the break, it’s hard to see that improving here against this unit. So long as Bo Nix can remain efficient as he has the previous three weeks (zero interceptions), this winning streak for Denver should continue.
Projected score: Broncos 21, Chargers 17
The pick: Broncos +3
Caleb Williams is turning a corner. Chicago’s No. 1 pick is coming off a breakout performance in Week 5, where he threw for 304 yards, two touchdowns and a season-best 126.2 passer rating. The production has been climbing by the week for Williams, and he now faces a Jacksonville defense that is tied for the second-most yards per play allowed, is 25th in the league on third down and allows opponents to score on nearly 71% of their red zone trips. Meanwhile, the Bears defense has proven to be a top-10 unit this season and has allowed 21 or fewer points in 11 straight games dating back to last year. Even with the neutral site, I like the Bears to come back to the U.S. with a win.
Projected score: Bears 24, Jaguars 20
The pick: Bears -2
Dallas needed a last-second touchdown to beat a wildly inefficient Steelers offense on Sunday night. In Week 6, the Cowboys get a much more finely tuned opponent in the Lions, who will enter AT&T Stadium as the road favorites. Under Dan Campbell, the Lions are 6-2 ATS as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. It’s also worth noting the rest advantage that Detroit will have over the Cowboys as it’s coming off the bye. The Lions are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following the bye week.
Projected score: Lions 30, Cowboys 24
The pick: Lions -3.5
Bonus: SportsLine expert Eric Cohen is 20-10 with his picks over the last two weeks, and likes Detroit as a slight road favorite against Dallas in Week 6. Check it out here.
This is a bad spot for the Saints. On top of Derek Carr being banged up, New Orleans is preparing for a key divisional matchup on a short week against a Buccaneers club that is coming off a mini-bye week after playing last Thursday. Baker Mayfield has been playing at an extremely high level this season and is 9-2 ATS as the Bucs starter on the road. The rest advantage and sting of dropping an overtime game to Atlanta in Week 5 should give Tampa Bay the juice it needs to go on the road and come away with a win.
Projected score: Buccaneers 23, Saints 17
The pick: Buccaneers -2.5
49ers at Seahawks
Projected score: 49ers 27, Seahawks 23
The pick: 49ers -3
Cardinals at Packers
Projected score: Packers 30, Cardinals 21
The pick: Packers -5
Colts at Titans
Projected score: Titans 23, Colts 20
The pick: Titans +1
Browns at Eagles
Projected score: Eagles 33, Browns 23
The pick: Eagles -8.5
Commanders at Ravens
Projected score: Ravens 30, Commanders 27
The pick: Commanders +6.5
Steelers at Raiders
Projected score: Steelers 23, Raiders 17
The pick: Steelers -3
Falcons at Panthers
Projected score: Falcons 27, Panthers 17
The pick: Falcons -6
Bengals at Giants
Projected score: Bengals 27, Giants 23
The pick: Bengals -3.5
Bills at Jets
Projected score: Jets 23, Bills 21
The pick: Jets +2.5
