• Texans WR Nico Collins vs. Bills CB Christian Benford: The talented Texans receiver has solidified himself in the conversation of elite targets in the game today after his phenomenal start to the 2024 campaign.
• Sam Darnold’s revenge game in London: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London plays host to Sam Darnold’s opportunity for revenge. The Vikings passer has already crossed one former team off his list, and now takes aim at the team that drafted him in the New York Jets.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription:Get full access to all our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!
Estimated reading time: 23 minutes
TB@ATL | NYJ@MIN | CAR@CHI | BAL@CIN | BUF@HOU | IND@JAX MIA@NE CLE@WAS | LV@DEN | ARI@SF | GB@LAR | NYG@SEA
DAL@PIT | NO@KC
Atlanta hasn’t been without its bumps to start the year, but a big last-second divisional win over the Saints this past week has brought life to this team. Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo — the second-highest graded kicker in the NFL — has become the equalizer for this team, with his outstanding accuracy keeping these games closer than they might be otherwise.
The Bucs managed to answer back with a statement win over the Eagles at home this past week after dropping their Week 3 game, and will now look to build on their 1-0 road record on the season heading into divisional play in Atlanta. Injuries continue to be an issue with a laundry list of players banged up through the first month, leaving Tampa in a tough position on short rest.
In his eighth season, Godwin is off to one of the best starts to a season in his career, capturing the NFL’s fourth-highest receiving grade (87.8) at the receiver position. Liam Coen’s offense uses the talented playmaker in a variety of looks to get him the ball in space, where he can really do damage. Godwin has been on a tear after the catch, currently leading all receivers in YAC (189 yards).
When lined up in the slot, Alford will be tasked with covering Godwin, a matchup the Bucs will surely look to exploit. Among qualifying slot defenders — at least 25 coverage snaps — Alford’s 51.6 PFF slot coverage grade ranks as the fifth-lowest in the NFL, having surrendered 1.85 yards per coverage snap and a 122.7 passer rating when targeted.
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London plays host to Sam Darnold’s opportunity for revenge. The Vikings passer has already crossed one former team off his list, and now takes aim at the team that drafted him in the New York Jets. While Darnold has played well through the month of September, he fell into some of his old habits of putting the ball in danger in Week 4.
That could prove to be a dangerous game against this Jets defense that closed out the first month of the season with the league’s highest team coverage grade (86.4). This Jets defense has allowed just a 79.2 average passer rating, the third-lowest in the NFL.
It’s easy to point to a matchup between All-Pros like Justin Jefferson and Sauce Gardner, but the most intriguing matchup of this one may go down on the other side between Addison and Reed.
The second-year receiver hit the ground running in his return in Week 4, generating a 74.6 PFF receiving grade powered by a trio of 15-plus yard receptions. That marked a top-18 grade at the position on the week.
Reed has put together a fantastic start to the year, having earned the second-highest PFF coverage grade (88.6) among qualifying corners — a credit to his 44.9 passer rating allowed and 36% forced incompletion rate on passes into his coverage.
Despite some overarching struggles to start the year, Chicago possesses a 2-0 record at Soldier Field and finds itself in the midst of a three-game homestand. Amid some offensive struggles, this defense is keeping the Bears in position to compete late in games. Matt Eberflus’ defense currently ranks as the third-best unit in EPA per play allowed.
Despite the Panthers’ new found momentum with Andy Dalton under center, they weren’t able to parlay that into a win at home against the Bengals in Week 4. Carolina’s defense has struggled mightily to gain ground, particularly rushing the passer, where the Panthers possess the second-lowest pressure rate (25.4%) in the league. If they aren’t able to take advantage of the Bears’ pass protection, it could spell further trouble this week.
Although the first-round pick at receiver has yet to really stamp his mark on the season in a grading sense, he stepped up in Week 4 to his best performance as a pro. Without Adam Thielen in the lineup, Legette hauled in six of his nine targets while producing 1.78 yards per route run.
Stevenson will be tasked with checking the first-year receiver after a tough couple of weeks, which saw his coverage grade drop sizably. Through four games, the second-year corner has allowed the 15th-highest yards per coverage snap (1.57) at the corner position.
After playing close games for the first three weeks, Baltimore kicked open the door against a strong team in the Buffalo Bills with a decisive win this past week. The Ravens have unlocked this ground game behind Derrick Henry and produced the second-highest EPA per rush to close out September.
Week 4 also saw the Bengals get into the win column with a double-digit victory on the road in Carolina. Joe Burrow and this passing game have hit its stride in recent weeks, with the talented passer generating an 80.0 PFF passing grade, the fifth-highest through four weeks.
A huge part in sustaining the Bengals’ offensive success centers around keeping Burrow off of the ground. Despite a crucial injury on the right side to Trent Brown, this offensive line has been holding ground, having surrendered the eighth-lowest pressure rate in the NFL. That’s a credit to the performance of Brown Jr., who possesses the 14th-best PFF pass-blocking grade among tackles this season (80.0).
The Bengals will need to harness that if they hope to stand up to this Ravens pass rush that’s recorded the second-most quarterback knockdowns (36) in 2024. Oweh is just one piece to this puzzle for Baltimore, but a vital one at that. The fourth-year edge rusher has generated an impressive 86.2 PFF pass-rushing grade — eighth-best among edge defenders — highlighted by four sacks and four quarterback hits.
Josh Allen’s Bills were flying high through the first three weeks of the campaign before hitting a wall this past week in Baltimore. That’s raised questions around if this team is able to take down the more talented and battle-tested squads around the league, or if Buffalo benefited from a softer opening schedule.
Houston undoubtedly falls into the prior category, as one of the most talented teams in the NFL. Even still, the Texans have issues that have allowed games as heavy favorites to come down to the wire — including this past week against the Jags, in which the Texans needed a touchdown in the final 30 seconds to win.
The Texans’ talented receiver has solidified himself in the conversation of elite targets in the game today after his phenomenal start to the 2024 campaign. Collins possesses a league-leading 91.6 PFF receiving grade this season, pacing the NFL in various metrics. Maybe most impressive of them are his 17 receptions of 15 or more yards, as no other receiver has cracked double digits yet.
However, that doesn’t mean Benford isn’t up to the challenge, given the stingy coverage ability he’s put on display to start the year. The Bills corner has earned an 83.0 PFF coverage grade, the fifth-best mark at the position. On passes into his coverage, Benford has surrendered just a 14.6 passer rating and 0.18 yards per coverage snap, both of which rank among the best in the league at the corner position.
Despite doing his best to deflect questions about his job security following the Jags’ fourth-consecutive loss to start the year, it’s clear that HC Doug Pederson is starting to feel the heat of his team’s early-season frustrations. While it doesn’t look great so far in Jacksonville, there’s still a lot of football to be played, and winning this divisional battle at home for the Jaguars’ victory of the year would go a long way to righting the ship.
Anthony Richardson‘s injury concerns are again the topic of conversation surrounding this Colts team. Questions of Richardson’s durability have begun swirling after being knocked out early in Indy’s Week 4 matchup. Veteran passer Joe Flacco stepped in and led this offense to an efficient day to get the win over the Steelers.
An asset of having an experienced passer under center is the ability to create rhythm and consistency in the passing game. With Flacco delivering passes, both Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs saw their highest receiving grades of the season by a wide margin. Downs generated 3.57 yards per route run on his way to a 90.1 PFF receiving grade, the second-highest among receivers last week.
Jones, the Jags{ slot corner, will have his work cut out for him with Downs after a tough start to 2024. His 48.4 PFF coverage grade ranks 92nd out of 98 corners, marred by a troubling 10.8 yards per coverage target and a 71.4% open target rate.
Both the Dolphins and Patriots have looked more and more troubling as September marched on and are now fighting to salvage the first half of 2024 with a win to start October on a high note.
Miami continues to search for answers under center after a tough outing this past week from Tyler Huntley, the team’s third starter on the year, in which he generated a 49.5 PFF passing grade. While the issues are isolated to the quarterback position, it’s a glaring issue for this team’s offensive effectiveness.
Conversely, the Patriots don’t have a problem at quarterback, per se, with rookie Drake Maye waiting in the wings. Instead, their issues lie in their inability to protect any passer back there. New England’s pass protection has surrendered the league’s highest pressure rate (48.2%) this season, along with 17 plays ending in a sack.
The Pats’ coverage unit has struggled to find its footing to start the year, ranking in the bottom five in EPA allowed per dropback. Peppers has been the bright spot in the secondary, though, having earned the fourth-highest coverage grade among safeties. This past week, the veteran safety secured his first interception of the year on his way to a 90.4 PFF coverage grade.
Without a doubt, knowing where No. 5 is at all times would be a wise move for Huntley, who is coming off an outing where he threw a pair of turnover-worthy passes, including an ugly deep ball that was easily undercut by a quarters safety.
The Commanders closed out their two-game road trip and the first month of the season as one of the NFL’s most efficient offenses. Washington currently ranks as the seventh-highest graded offense in the league, as well as possessing the top-ranked EPA per play in league by a wide margin — over twice that of any other team.
Cleveland’s issues offensively take many shapes and have persisted from week to week, ranging from the porous pass protection to inefficiency running the ball. Injuries along the offensive line have surely hindered this unit’s effectiveness, and unfortunately it doesn’t appear to be an easy plug and play fix this week, with six offensive linemen popping up on the injury report to start the week.
Despite continued issues in pass protection, Watson managed to produce his best grading performance of 2024 in Week 4, generating the second-highest passing grade (88.5) of the week. It may not look impressive when looking at the boxscore, but Watson’s limiting of turnover worthy plays (just two) helps redeem the far less flashy stats.
In a similar vein, Bobby Wagner has been the lone standout player on this Commanders defense that ranks last in EPA per play allowed. The veteran linebacker is the only Washington defender to surpass a 73.0 overall defensive grade. Wagner will do what he does best to get this defense into a reasonable position to make Watson’s life hard in this one.
The Broncos took to the road to close out September and managed to come away with a pair of massive underdog wins to bring this team to a .500 win percentage. Winning back-to-back road games is already difficult, but given what this team had shown the first two weeks, those games seemed like insurmountable matchups. Yet, here we are, and Denver is looking to ride that momentum into this one vs. the Raiders.
On the other sideline, this Raiders team has gone through similar issues, dropping the games most would consider “manageable” and taking home close wins against more talented rosters. But, the question regarding this team’s future is now even more in flux after WR Davante Adams requested a trade early in the week.
This is a more general matchup to watch than this piece is accustomed to, but it’s necessary given the questions regarding this receiving corps sans Adams. Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker will have big shoes to fill in the passing game, a difficult challenge to say the least, but one made more difficult with how Denver has played in coverage this season.
After the first month of the year, this Broncos defense has generated the fifth-best EPA per dropback allowed. That effort is due in large part to the play of FS Brandon Jones, who currently stands as the league’s highest overall graded (90.0) safety. He will definitely have opportunities to build on that performance this week.
After a fairly surprising start to the year offensively, the wheels have seemingly sprung a flat for Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. Over the first two games, Arizona was sporting a top-three EPA per play offense. In the two games since then, this unit has amounted to a bottom-third ranking in the very same category, failing to exceed 14 points in either matchup at home.
This week’s contest doesn’t bode terribly well as a bounce-back situation on the road. After a pair of road losses, this 49ers team got back to its winning ways with an emphatic victory over the Patriots. Much of that credit has to be given to Brock Purdy, who stands as the second-highest graded passer in the NFL through September despite having a rotating door in and out of the lineup with his playmakers dealing with injuries.
Jennings may play alongside some big names like George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, but he has undoubtedly been the most effective target Purdy has had in recent weeks. Jennings’ 88.1 PFF receiving grade on the year ranks in the top-three at the position, highlighted by his nine receptions of 15-or-more yards, tied with Giants rookie Malik Nabers for third-most.
Second-year corner Garrett Williams will see Jennings plenty when matched in the slot, as the slot corner has generated a top-16 PFF coverage grade at the position. However, Williams was listed on the injury report to start the week, leaving questions to his level of readiness in this matchup and the depth of this secondary.
Green Bay is seeking some stability in week-to-week performance after losing a divisional matchup against the Vikings this past week. While not directly correlated to his own issues, this Packers team currently stands at 0-2 this season with Love starting under center. Despite being on the road, this game presents Love another opportunity to put together a front-to-back win.
Although the Rams have struggled to start the season, coming away with just one win in September, this team’s schedule to open the year included three of the four games taking place on the road. The lone game at home? That ended in their only win of the year so far, taking down a strong team in the Niners in Week 3. Now, Sean McVay’s bunch gets prepared for a three-game homestand, starting with another strong opponent in Green Bay.
Even before the injuries piled up in the receiving corps, this Rams offense functioned best when everything flowed through its running game, but that’s made even more vital now. If this team is to succeed, getting back to the run game to control the tempo is a must. While Williams hasn’t generated overly impressive grades to start the year, he is putting together a solid performance, including this past week — when he amassed 4.9 yards per carry on 19 totes.
McVay is again going to have to prove his flexibility as a play caller, as he currently runs the highest rate gap run concepts (46%) in the NFL — which just so happens to be somewhere the Packers have excelled getting stops. Through September, the Packers generated a team 73.9 run defense grade vs gap runs, a top-six mark in the NFL.
Seattle ripped off a trio of wins to start off the Mike Macdonald era before dropping a tough loss on the road against another contender out of the NFC in the Lions. Now, the Seahawks will look to get back the momentum they lost with a home matchup against a team that has struggled to find early success. Injuries played a big role in their loss to Detroit last week, and this week will surely have a focus on the roster getting healthy.
Similarly, the Giants also find themselves in a tough spot regarding injuries to key contributors on the roster. First-year wideout Malik Nabers has been far and away the team’s best offensive player — his 82.0 PFF receiving grade is seventh among all receivers — yet he finds himself dealing with a concussion to begin the week, potentially losing this team its most effective offensive weapon.
Walker returned from injury in Week 4 to produce the single-highest rushing grade of his career, a phenomenal 93.3. That mark not only led the week in rushing grade, but also catapulted Walker to the apex of backs around the league in this category.
This Giants defensive front, led by Dexter Lawrence, has been a bit of a mixed bag in terms of stifling production. Yet, one piece that has stepped up to fit the run at a high level this season has been McFadden. The third-year linebacker has had a breakout season stopping the run, having generated the second-highest run defense grade (90.1) at the position while amassing a positive grade on over 23% of his run fits.
Two of the NFL’s most storied franchises face off on Sunday night with the first month of the season in the books.
The Cowboys got right this past week to bring home a win in their first divisional matchup of the year against the Giants and now get to take a rest advantage into this one, after last playing on Thursday night. That matchup saw Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb reconnect for their highest-graded performances of the year, something this team will surely need to see more of as the season wears on.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh suffered its first loss of the season this past week on the road against the Colts. Despite the Steelers’ staff refusing to officially name Justin Fields the starting quarterback, a single loss has not scared them off yet, with Fields again slated to start under center in Week 5 under the bright lights of primetime.
Steelers first-year center Zach Frazier has hit the ground running to kick off his career at the heart of this Steelers offensive line. The former West Virginia Mountaineer is developing a reputation as a run-blocker at the next level, already possessing an 80.1 run-blocking grade powered by an 18.8% impact block rate.
That strength as a run blocker will prove to be a real test for Cowboys second-round DI Mazi Smith, who has struggled mightily to fit the run early in his career. But, we may be seeing the former first-rounder starting to put it together after his 86.6 run defense grade this past week, a mark that stands nearly 55-points higher on the grading scale than his previous week’s performance (31.7).
Through the first two weeks of the year, this Saints offense was ranked among the league’s best in a number of categories, including EPA per play (1st), yards per play (2nd) and scoring drive percentage (1st). But all of those marks have seen a precipitous drop in the weeks to follow, with each falling below league average over that span.
That may prove to be an issue against Kansas City — which always seems to play to the level of its opponents, keeping games relatively close, but always manages to squeeze out a lead late in the game for a win. This past week, however, Patrick Mahomes got back to his impressive level of performance he’s become synonymous with, earning his first passing grade about 60.0 since Week 1.
The heart of this Kansas City offensive line continues to put together one of the most impressive grading profiles from a blocker in the league. Humphrey is off to another elite season, having produced the third-highest pass blocking grade (80.1) and second-best run blocking grade (92.7) at the center position. There is nothing this guy can’t or won’t do for this offense, and it does not get the credit it deserves for setting the foundation for this team’s success.
That sounds exceedingly worrying for the second-year interior defender for New Orleans, as Bresee has largely struggled since setting foot in the league. It’s particularly alarming when you look at the former first round pick’s run defense metrics, where he currently holds the NFL’s second-lowest run blocking grade (28.1), due largely to his nearly 31% of run defense snaps being negatively graded.
