The first month of the 2024 season is now in the rearview mirror, and let’s just say it wasn’t the happiest of returns to the league from a betting perspective. Almost across the board, the books have been coming out on top as the cast of characters, including yours truly, on the CBS Sports Expert Picks page are treading water to varying degrees.
What’s the cause of the books getting the better of us? Well, in part, it’s because these games have been remarkably tight. Through Week 4, 39 games have been decided by eight points or fewer, which is the most through the first month in league history. So, we’re in an unprecedented spot. That said, we press forward to Week 5, where we’ll look to turn the tide, starting with my five locks of the week.
Locks of the Week ATS: 7-13
ATS: 24-37-3
ML: 34-30
All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.
New England is in rough shape coming out of the first month of the season. While it enjoyed a brief moment of optimism after upsetting the Bengals in Week 1, it’s been downhill since. The offense regresses by the week and, to make matters worse, is starting to get dramatically banged up. Specifically, the O-line is where things look more dire on the injury front. Already a unit that lacks top-tier talent, New England will be without starting center David Andrews (season-ending shoulder surgery) and could be missing rookie offensive tackle Caedan Wallace, who both suffered injuries against San Francisco last week.
Sure, the Dolphins look abysmal on offense against the Titans with Tyler Huntley under center, but it could be a wash considering how the Patriots offense is shaping up.
Really, this is a pick about Miami’s ability to get off the field, as it ranks No. 1 in the NFL in opponent third-down conversion rate (23.81%). New England’s offense ranks 24th in the league on third down. All this game may need is a single breakout play on offense, and the Dolphins, even with Huntley, have more players capable of doing just that than the Patriots.
Projected score: Dolphins 17, Patriots 13
The pick: Dolphins +1
Don’t look now, but things are somewhat starting to click for the Bears offense. Over the last two weeks, Caleb Williams has been far more productive through the air and is coming off his best statistical game of the season (106.6 passer rating vs. Rams) in Week 4. While this team still has some growing pains to go through, it has a favorable matchup at home here against the Panthers, who are giving up a league-high 32.3 points per game this season. Andy Dalton has raised the floor of the Carolina offense since taking over for Bryce Young but isn’t someone who should instill a ton of fear, particularly against this Bears defense that is just outside the top-10 in the league in fewest yards per play allowed and are tired for the third-most takeaways. Also, Chicago has been pretty automatic at home, as it is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS at Soldier Field in its past seven games, including five straight covers.
Projected score: Bears 27, Panthers 20
The pick: Bears -3.5
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model has an A-graded pick in this matchup. Check it out here.
It was a shaky start for Jordan Love in his return to action last week against the Vikings, but the Packers quarterback was able to will his team back into contention late. That flashes the high ceiling I had on this Green Bay squad coming into the year, and I think it is poised to show it to us again in Los Angeles as a road favorite. The Rams defense has been horrid through the first month, ranking 31st in scoring, 32nd in yards per play allowed and 30th on third down (50% conversion rate). While all eyes will continue to be on Love as he works his way back into top form, this could be a Josh Jacobs showcase, as the Rams are allowing a league-worst 165.6 yards on the ground this season.
Projected score: Packers 30, Rams 20
The pick: Packers -3.5
Bonus: R.J. White is 69-28-2 (+3639) in his last 99 ATS picks involving the Packers, and he’s confident in one team against the spread. Check out who he’s taking, here.
This might as well be a playoff game for the Jaguars because their season — and possibly their careers in Jacksonville — are on the line. The club is 0-4 to start the year, but did play the Houston Texans tough in Week 3 and now gets a banged-up Colts squad, who could be down Anthony Richardson (hip) and Jonathan Taylor (high ankle sprain). Indy has also allowed the most total yards per game (399.8) this season, giving Trevor Lawrence and the offense as good of a landing spot as ever to bounce back. The Jags have historically also owned this matchup, winning eight straight in Jacksonville. But again, as we look at the big picture for Jacksonville, it needs this win in the worst way as it is set to leave the U.S. after this game for a two-week stint in London. If the Jaguars don’t turn things around, Doug Pederson may not be the head coach when they come back stateside.
Projected score: Jaguars 27, Colts 23
The pick: Jaguars -2.5
This is strictly a play on the Broncos defense being arguably the best unit in the NFL. Denver’s offense under Bo Nix makes things a little scary as we are laying a field goal here, but I have a hard time fathoming Las Vegas being able to pile up points against this defense. The Broncos are third in the league in scoring defense (13.8 points allowed per game) and second in total defense (256.5 total yards allowed per game). When you match that against a Raiders offense that is averaging less than 20 points per game, is 20th in the league in total yards per play and is 26th in the league on third down (32.6% conversion rate), I’ll take my chances that Sean Payton can get the offense moving to clear the number.
Projected score: Broncos 21, Raiders 16
The pick: Broncos -2.5
Buccaneers at Falcons (Thursday)
Projected score: Buccaneers 26, Falcons 23
The pick: Buccaneers +1.5
Jets at Vikings (in London)
Projected score: Jets 24, Vikings 23
The pick: Jets +2.5
Ravens at Bengals
Projected score: Ravens 30, Bengals 26
The pick: Ravens -2.5
Bills at Texans
Projected score: Bills 24, Texans 20
The pick: Bills -1
Browns at Commanders
Projected score: Commanders 23, Browns 21
The pick: Browns +3.5
Cardinals at 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 30, Cardinals 24
The pick: Cardinals +7.5
Giants at Seahawks
Projected score: Seahawks 27, Giants 17
The pick: Seahawks -6.5
Cowboys at Steelers
Projected score: Steelers 24, Cowboys 20
The pick: Steelers -2.5
Saints at Chiefs (Monday)
Projected score: Chiefs 23, Saints 20
The pick: Saints +4.5
