Like a Saquon Barkley spin move juxtaposed into a reverse hurdle or a DeVonta Smith toe-drag touchdown, the 2024 NFL season has been a sight to behold. The Sporting News’ best bets have been even more beautiful, with a sparkling record of hits over the first nine weeks.
Coming off a loaded Week 9 slate, this column went 4-2 against the spread and on the moneyline last weekend. Our weekly best bets now stand at 56-42-1 on the season.
That’s a winning percentage of .571, for anyone who likes statistics.
MORE NFL: Week 10 odds, lines, totals | Power rankings | Playoff picture
Let’s get right to it and unveil the top moneyline, spread, over/under and player prop wagers on BetMGM and Caesars for Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season. Good luck and have fun!
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/unders | Player props
All odds courtesy of BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook.
Sure, Lamar Jackson has looked like he’s en route to his third MVP. And yes, Derrick Henry has been rumbling toward his third rushing title and fourth season with 20-plus touchdowns. Neither of those facts mean the Ravens will beat Joe Burrow and the Bengals by seven in a short-week game.
Don’t pay attention to Cincinnati’s 4-5 record. Pay attention to the fact that the Bengals have gone 4-0 against the spread as an away team this season. Look at their 3-1 record over the past four weeks, or their per-game scoring average of 28.7 points over the past seven. Joe Burrow threw five touchdowns last weekend against the Raiders.
Now look at the Ravens’ past month or so. They barely defeated Cincy in overtime 41-38 on October 6. They beat the Commanders 30-23 with Washington missing top running back Brian Robinson Jr. They let the Bucs score 31 despite Mike Evans getting hurt early. They lost to the Jameis Winston-led Browns. And they crushed Bo Nix and the flawed Broncos.
Long story short, the Ravens’ run hasn’t been nearly as impressive as their 6-3 record suggests — just like the Bengals haven’t been nearly as bad as their 4-5 mark conveys. Take away an ugly beatdown by the Eagles and Cincinnati has lost its games by six, five, one, and three. Don’t be surprised if this game finishes with a Cincy cover or a straight-up Bengals dub. Do you smell it in the air? It’s Burrow season.
SCORE PREDICTION: Ravens 31, Bengals 27
Other Week 10 spreads worth a look: Chiefs -9.5 vs. Broncos (-110 on BetMGM); 49ers -6.5 at Bucs (-115 on BetMGM); Eagles -6.5 at Cowboys (-105 on Caesars); Falcons -3.0 at Saints (-120 on Caesars)
Here’s one pick we don’t like making. Rookie of the Year favorite (and maybe runaway) Jayden Daniels and Dan Quinn’s upstart Commanders have been really, really fun. They’re even playing defense here and there! But beating Mike Tomlin’s Steelers is also really, really hard — and it seems a little early to be giving Pittsburgh points against a rookie QB.
The Steelers looked good earlier this season with Justin Fields under center (4-2). But they have looked extra swaggy since Russell Wilson took over (2-0). DangeRuss and company have out-dueled four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers and the Jets 37-15 and run over Daniel Jones and the Giants 26-18. That’s the same Giants team that Washington just barely eked by in Week 9.
Don’t let a cool story trick you into thinking a team has become elite. The Commanders still have plenty of flaws (including the fact that they’re called the Commanders, but I digress), while the Steelers are very good at just about every level (hi T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick!). Add to that an extra week of preparation for Tomlin and his coaching staff thanks to the Week 9 bye, and we’re all-in on this upset special.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Steelers 24, Commanders 20
Other Week 10 moneylines to consider: Jets +100 at Cardinals (BetMGM); Dolphins +115 at Rams (Caesars)
The Panthers and Giants have both spent most of the 2024 NFL season in various stages of disarray. Now they get to travel 8-9 hours to Germany to beat each other up for a while? What can go wrong!?
Carolina has gone from Bryce Young to Andy Dalton and back to Bryce Young, all the while trading away top wideout Diontae Johnson. Dave Canales’ squad did get a nice one-point win over the Saints in Week 9, but to be fair Rashid Shaheed is on IR, Chris Olave got concussed and Derek Carr is just trying to avoid getting killed.
New York has enjoyed moments of brilliance thanks to rookies Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy. However, neither player is quite special enough to completely take over and absolve Big Blue of its lengthy list of issues. There’s just simply not enough talent on either side of this matchup to expect a lot of touchdowns in Munich.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Giants 20, Panthers 17
Other strong Week 10 over/under bets: Broncos UNDER 15.5 team total at Chiefs (-120 on Caesars); Colts UNDER 20.5 team total vs. Bills (-115 on Caesars)
As we do each week, we’ll share the top-value player and game props for Week 10 once they drop on BetMGM and Caesars. Props usually go live by Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning — but check back often, as we will sprinkle a few of the top props between then and the weekend.
