There might never be a better candidate for this piece than Sam Darnold in 2025. Similar to Baker Mayfield last year, Darnold has a range of outcomes that stretches from high-tier backup to legitimate franchise QB. But in comparison to Mayfield, Darnold’s career lows have been much lower, while his high — early last year with Minnesota — sparked legitimate MVP consideration.

As a refresher, entering 2024, Darnold had a 21-35 record as a starter, had topped out at 3,024 yards and 19 touchdowns in a single season (both in 2019) and had a career 78.3 passer rating — easily the worst among 35 passers with 1,000 attempts in that span. Then, in a breakout season with the Vikings, he logged 4,319 pass yards, 36 total touchdowns and a 102.5 passer rating en route to a 14-3 record and his first Pro Bowl selection — before regressing again in a pair of ugly losses to end the year.

To complicate matters more, the Vikings have J.J. McCarthy waiting in the wings, making it even tougher to justify a roughly $40-million-per-year investment in Darnold. That means another franchise might have to wager that it can get the same production out of the former No. 3 overall pick as Coach of the Year Kevin O’Connell did, or that KOC permanently fixed the veteran passer for the future. If it works, and he is indeed a franchise leader, Darnold should be a steal. If it doesn’t, some team might thrash multiple years of cap space on a middling starter or worse.