First overall pick Caleb Williams enters a dream situation in Chicago, with a supporting cast that includes 2023 stud DJ Moore, six-time Pro Bowler Keenan Allen and ninth overall pick Rome Odunze at wide receiver. But rookie quarterbacks aren’t typically explosive in fantasy. So the question is, will these talented wideouts elevate Williams, or might the former Trojan slow them down as he acclimates to the pros?

In NFL history, 52 teams have had three wide receivers top 150 fantasy points (essentially the threshold to be a WR4 or better) in the same season. The average passing totals for those squads were 4,458 yards and 30 touchdowns (both marks would be in the top two by a rookie all time), and 83 percent of those teams topped 4,000 yards … something no Bears QB has ever done. Of the 52 teams, just two were led primarily by rookie quarterbacks (Andrew Luck’s Colts and Gardner Minshew‘s Jaguars). Add in the fact that Chicago’s new OC, Shane Waldron, ran the slowest offense in the NFL over the past three years in Seattle (ranking last in plays per game), and we’ve got real concern.

The good news is that all this bad news is baked into the draft prices. Average draft position has Williams as the QB12 (fair), Moore at WR22 (a great discount, compared to his 2023 finish), Allen at WR35 (he would probably require about 100 targets to pay that off) and Odunze at WR38 (reasonable with his explosiveness, though perhaps more valid in best-ball formats). The real problem will be consistency. All three of these receivers might finish at or ahead of their ADPs, but how reliable will each be on a weekly basis, with the others clamoring for targets? In the end, I’m personally drafting Moore (whose value feels the best for the upside) and leaving Williams and the other receivers for someone else in my league.