My theme for this NFL season is positive vibes, and you can’t possibly have more positive vibes than when you sweep (kinda) the board in Week 1.
The Bills and Seahawks couldn’t get to the window but our other three bets did, and honestly, the two pushes were probably the right side. The Bills got down in an early hole and were likely to cover if not for the first kickoff return touchdown in the new format. Of course the new rule would go against me. At least it wasn’t a loss, though.
As for the Seahawks, it’s a miracle that the Broncos pushed. Two safeties, short fields — and they still needed a late score to deny us a win. Oh well. The Colts were kind of a lucky victory, so I won’t complain too much.
Last week’s record: 3-0-2, +3.15 units
Season record: 3-0-2, +3.15 units, +58.3%
This week’s card kicks off with three plays including two in primetime games. Surely, those won’t be sweaty at all. There is potential for a play to be added later in the week so remember to follow on X (@amock419) for any updates. As always, remember to shop around for the best prices.
All plays are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs. I’m also sharing a “worst line to bet,” which is the last number that I would bet before the game no longer has enough value to make a bet.
I have concerns about both of these defenses when matched up against high-powered offenses and that’s what they’ll both be facing on Thursday night. My only concern is that the Dolphins offense is a little boom or bust against quality competition and that could lead to a game script where Buffalo is running the ball a lot. But at the end of the day, Josh Allen is elite, and the Dolphins have the ability to score from anywhere on the field, so this game has a chance to get into the 50s.
Both of these teams had impressive performances in Week 1 but I have confidence that one was a stronger signal than the other. The Cowboys demolished a good Browns defense while the Saints might have beat up on the worst team in the NFL. I think new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer will get more out of the Cowboys’ front-seven than we are used to and that means Derek Carr will be seeing a lot of pressure. I don’t love the sound of that if I’m the Saints.
The Bears needed a special teams touchdown and a pick-six to win at home against the Titans last week. And now I can get C.J. Stroud and the Texans at under a touchdown and an extra point? Sign me up. I think this game has potential for a blowout as I’m not sure the Bears offense, with a rookie quarterback and a short-handed wide receiver room, is ready to go on the road and compete with a playoff-caliber team.
(Photo by Jason Miller / Getty Images)
