Sean Barnard dives into the top long shot player prop bets in Steelers vs. Cowboys ahead of the Sunday Night Football matchup in Week 5.
The Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers are set to square off on Sunday Night Football in Week 5. This interconference matchup will be the 34th time the teams have faced off and neither is quite sure how they stack up in the NFL hierarchy this year.
Entering the matchup, Pittsburgh holds a 3-1 record but is coming off a loss to the Indianapolis Colts last week. The Cowboys are 2-2 on the season with their losses coming at the hands of the Ravens and Saints.
The Steelers enter as 2.5-point favorites in the matchup and are -142 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Dallas holds +120 odds on the moneyline while the game total sits at 43.5 points.
While there are plenty of breakdowns for sharper plays, start-and-sit breakdowns and DFS picks, this article will take a look at some more long shot plays. These types of big swings come with high risk but can save your Sunday or at least allow you to have a little extra fun during the primetime matchup. Several of these plays come from the DK Specials section, which you can find here.
There is an argument to be made that T.J. Watt is the most valuable non-quarterback in the NFL. He has been integral to the Steelers’ success across his eight seasons with the team. During this time, the Steelers are 72-34-2 in games that Watt has played and just 1-10 in games that he has missed.
Watt has led the NFL in sacks three times in his career and eclipsed 13.0 or more sacks five times. While he sits second in Defensive Player of the Year odds, Watt has not made his impact felt in the box score this season as much as is typically the case. Through the opening four games, Watt has tallied 3.0 sacks, seven quarterback hits and five tackles for a loss.
The Cowboys’ offensive line is not the gold standard it once was. Dak Prescott has been sacked 10 times already through the opening four weeks. While Watt has been kept in check by regular double-teams and chip blocks, he is capable of breaking out at any time. Watt had six multi-sack games last season and has logged 22 games with two or more sacks in his career. Expect Watt to capitalize on every opportunity he gets with just one blocker and for his impact to be felt in this matchup. This is considered a long shot for a reason, but a Watt breakout game is coming soon and very well could be against the Cowboys.
While the Steelers will provide a difficult challenge to Dak Prescott, he has a proven track record of being able to air it out. He is averaging 268.0 yards per game through the air this season and has thrown for more than 300 yards per game in two seasons. Prescott also threw for 379 yards in Week 3. Dallas has struggled to run the football this year, ranking 26th in rushing yards and 31st in rushing touchdowns, so expect the Cowboys to be focused on attacking through the air.
While there are more questions about his arm, Justin Fields faces a much more favorable matchup. The Cowboys’ defense has struggled this season and through four weeks ranks 27th in scoring and 25th in yards allowed. The Steelers have been careful in how much they have put on Fields’ plate to start the season. However, he is coming off his best statistical game in which he threw for 312 yards through the air last week against the Colts. His 34 pass attempts marked the most on the season and the former Chicago standout was able to capitalize on these opportunities. Expect the Steelers to have gained some trust and for them to continue opening up the playbook.
The potential for the Steelers’ defense to take control of this game makes this a bigger risk than in some matchups, but both Prescott and Fields are capable of throwing for 250 yards and a few big plays can pave the way for the 500-yard total to be reached without much trouble. The +250 odds are not a bad swing, especially if you believe in the Cowboys being able to overcome this Steelers’ defense.
It’s an outside-the-box choice here, but the Cowboys have struggled to produce any sort of regular rushing attack and are beginning to get desperate. Through the opening four weeks, the Cowboys rank 26th in rushing yards and 31st in rushing touchdowns. They have been held to 80 or fewer yards in three of the four games.
While most of his damage will be done in the passing game, CeeDee Lamb has already been given six carries on the season, which he has converted into 33 total yards and two first downs. He is the team’s best playmaker and Dallas has gotten more creative in how to get him the football.
Lamb holds an over/under of 4.5 rushing yards in the game with the over favored at -120 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. If he is to get a chance with a rush, it will likely be in the form of a reverse or some sort of motion play. He has recorded 49 rushing attempts in his career, including a career-high 14 last season for 113 yards and two touchdowns. Look for the Cowboys to attempt to correct their rushing issues by giving their star a chance at a big play on the ground. A +425 payout is an intriguing value, but you likely only get one or two chances at the opportunity.
The Dallas Cowboys have thrown the ball 148 times this season. Their 1,072 passing yards rank fifth in the NFL. Through the first four games, CeeDee Lamb leads the team in targets with 32 while Jake Ferguson is second with 23. While the 37.2% combined target share is already impressive, this should be expected to grow following the injury to Brandin Cooks. The veteran wide receiver has been placed on IR and will miss at least the next four weeks, but he is tied for third on the team with 19 targets this season.
Ferguson is the X-factor in this prop bet as he has yet to fully find his stride this season. He suffered a knee injury in the opening week, which forced him to miss Week 2. However, he returned with a 95-yard receiving performance in Week 3 and will look to replicate this type of production.
On the other side of things, Lamb is the unquestioned No. 1 option in the Cowboys offense. He has 316 receiving yards this season, which currently ranks 10th in the NFL. Lamb has had at least 60 yards in each game but has yet to have his true breakout performance.
The Steelers have a difficult defense, but the Cowboys will be their toughest test so far. Pittsburgh has allowed the eighth-fewest passing yards this season, but Dallas is the most dynamic passing game it has faced. If you believe in the Cowboys to produce the victory, it will involve production from Lamb and Ferguson. Combining for 200+ receiving yards would be an impressive performance, but the +550 payout could be worth a swing.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
