NFL championship round picks: Consider Bills and Eagles this weekend
Lorenzo Reyes is back with his best bet for the AFC and NFC championship games. He also threw in a couple of bonus player prop bets for those interested.
The NFL playoffs continue this Sunday with the divisional round behind us. Last weekend’s action did not disappoint and the USA TODAY Sports staff is back at the table breaking down their best NFL predictions and bets for the NFC and AFC title games.
The crew has delivered winning picks down the stretch of the NFL regular season and is looking to regain that momentum with the Super Bowl quickly approaching.
The 32-team field from September has been narrowed to four, vying for a shot at the Lombardi Trophy next month in New Orleans. The action kicks off this Sunday with the NFC championship as the Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Commanders. Followed by the Buffalo Bills on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC championship.
Our experts have provided the five best predictions for the conference championship games, selecting from all the available betting markets and supplying an in-depth analysis of spreads, player props and anytime touchdowns.
Here are the best NFL bets for the AFC and NFC championship games with odds from BetMGM. Best of luck if you tail.
Odds as of Friday.
Jacob Camenker, NFL writer: Hitting Saquon Barkley‘s alternate rushing total last week made me think about backing Allen to score twice (+650) as a longshot bet, but rolling with him to find the end-zone at least once seems like a much safer proposition.
Since the Bills‘ Week 10 game against the Indianapolis Colts, Allen has scored a rushing touchdown in seven of the nine games in which he has played more than one snap. Buffalo hasn’t been afraid to use him as a goal-line bulldozer during that span, and with the team’s first Super Bowl trip in 31 years on the line, Sean McDermott and Joe Brady should continue to lean on Allen to drive the pile in short yardage situations.
It helps that the Chiefs haven’t been great against mobile quarterbacks. They allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to quarterbacks in 2024 (434) and gave up four touchdowns on the ground, tied for the eighth-most league-wide. That includes Allen’s 55 yards and one-score performance against Kansas City in Week 11.
Additionally, the Chiefs have been excellent against running backs this season – they allowed the third-fewest rushing yards to the position and are one of two teams to allow fewer than 10 touchdowns to running backs – so James Cook isn’t likely to vulture all of Allen’s TDs. He may take one, but Allen will probably bull his way across the goal line at least once.
Ayrton Ostly, NFL writer: Kansas City playoff football this year looks a lot like it did last season: strong defense and a heavy helping of Kelce in the passing game. The 12-year pro had his fewest receiving yards and touchdowns in a season this year during the regular season but looked in fine form for the divisional round.
He had 117 receiving yards while the rest of Kansas City’s pass-catchers had 60 combined. His seven catches on eight targets went for three first downs and a touchdown. He’ll be the primary target once again for Patrick Mahomes.
The Bills let Baltimore tight ends Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews rack up nine catches for 134 yards and a touchdown combined in the divisional round. They’re well-coached on defense but Kelce will find a way.
Kelce has scored at least one touchdown in five of the last six AFC championship games. You have to go back to the AFC championship game in the 2019 season to find the last time he was kept out of the end zone, and that was a team featuring Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins. Go with the easy win here.
Nick Brinkerhoff, NFL writer: Last week we got burned by one Commanders‘ running back, so let’s take a shot on the other. Ekeler has been a machine in the playoffs, going over his receiving line in each of Washington’s last two games. Many were quick to say the running back was washed after last season. Now that word only comes up when Ekeler talks about his laundry.
While he missed the team’s Week 16 matchup against the Eagles, Ekeler crushed this line during Week 11’s “Thursday Night Football” showdown. He went off, collecting 8-of-9 targets for 89 yards through the air. Washington will find life difficult if they want to rely on the running game, especially without guard Sam Cosmi in the lineup.
That only makes Ekeler more valuable, especially in the quick passing game. Kliff Kingsbury’s sabbatical in Thailand has proven to be a massive success for the coach. He’ll have to get creative to pull off another upset and it starts with featuring Ekeler even more.
Jack McKessy, NFL writer: Hunt has been the Chiefs’ guy in short-yardage and goal-line situations since he returned to the team this year.
He’s scored a touchdown in his last three games, all of which came on carries three yards or fewer. Even though fellow tailback Isiah Pacheco returned to action in late November, he hasn’t been as effective as he was prior to fracturing his fibula in Week 2. Hunt has been out-carrying the younger back for three straight games now and is the much safer option for an ATTD bet.
Additionally, though the Bills’ run defense deserved commendation for its efforts against Ravens running back Derrick Henry in the first half (21 yards on eight carries), Baltimore eventually wore them down. Kansas City is not necessarily a run-first team like the Ravens have been recently, but the Chiefs will still be able to wear down this Bills defense before Kareem Hunt eventually breaks through with a score.
Tom Viera, NFL writer/editor: One of the most exciting things to do in sports betting is zig when everyone zags. This week, I’m zigging and backing A.J. Brown. The alpha has been used sparingly in the Eagles’ first two playoff games and is due for a massive performance.
Philadelphia has been thumping their opponents all season long with Saquon Barkley, leading to others taking a back seat in opportunities. However, it’s likely the birds will deploy their receivers against Washington who just allowed Amon-Ra St. Brown to post his highest yardage total of the season (137 yards) on eight receptions.
The Commanders’ defense has improved under Dan Quinn in his first year as head coach in Washington, but they sometimes struggled against big-bodied opposing wide receivers. Washington ranked 20th in defensive passing DVOA during the regular season. We watched Mike Evans post 92 yards on seven catches against them in the wild-card round. Brown went for 97 yards on eight receptions and a score in their final matchup of the season.
Washington traded for Marshon Lattimore to help boost this area but Brown has had his number in the past. Per PFF, Brown was targeted 10 times against Lattimore in the recent matchup and caught five passes for 68 yards and a touchdown.
Brown torched this defense in three of his last four games against Washington. He posted eight receptions for 130 yards and two touchdowns and nine receptions for 175 yards and two touchdowns in two of his last four matchups with this secondary.
This is an excellent opportunity to buy low on one of the best wide receivers in the NFL.
