NBA Storylines: January’s strength of schedule rankings
Phoenix and Orlando could both rise in January given the relative ease of their schedules.
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It’s a new year and a new month. The season is still just 39% complete, so there is plenty of time for teams unsatisfied with their place in the standings to make a run.
Of course, a team’s ability to make a run depends in part on the strength of their opponents. So here’s a schedule breakdown for January.
Note: A rest-advantage game (or rest-disadvantage game) is one where one team played the day/night before, but the other (the team with the advantage) did not. Teams are 65-49 (.570) in rest-advantage games, 34-27 (.557) at home and 31-22 (.585) on the road, through Dec. 31.
January strength of schedule
Here’s a look at the January schedule for every team, sorted from the toughest to the easiest (regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage):
|
Team |
OppPCT |
B2B |
H | R |
1. |
Houston |
.598 |
1 |
6 | 9 |
2. |
San Antonio |
.557 |
1 |
*5 | 6* |
3. |
Oklahoma City |
.557 |
3 |
7 | 7 |
4. |
Denver |
.544 |
3 |
8 | 9 |
5. |
Indiana |
.538 |
0 |
*6 | 4* |
6. |
Minnesota |
.536 |
3 |
7 | 9 |
7. |
Cleveland |
.528 |
3 |
8 | 7 |
8. |
Sacramento |
.524 |
2 |
6 | 8 |
9. |
Dallas |
.523 |
3 |
9 | 7 |
10. |
Toronto |
.520 |
2 |
8 | 7 |
11. |
New York |
.516 |
3 |
11 | 4 |
12. |
Philadelphia |
.514 |
5 |
9 | 8 |
13. |
Portland |
.514 |
3 |
8 | 8 |
14. |
Atlanta |
.513 |
3 |
5 | 10 |
15. |
Detroit |
.510 |
2 |
9 | 7 |
16. |
Boston |
.501 |
3 |
6 | 10 |
17. |
LA Clippers |
.498 |
2 |
8 | 7 |
18. |
Charlotte |
.493 |
2 |
7 | 8 |
19. |
Memphis |
.492 |
2 |
7 | 7 |
20. |
Golden State |
.477 |
4 |
11 | 5 |
21. |
Brooklyn |
.474 |
3 |
7 | 9 |
22. |
Utah |
.472 |
4 |
7 | 9 |
23. |
Miami |
.458 |
2 |
8 | 8 |
24. |
Orlando |
.454 |
2 |
7 | 8 |
25. |
Washington |
.453 |
4 |
8 | 9 |
26. |
Los Angeles Lakers |
.447 |
2 |
9 | 7 |
27. |
New Orleans |
.440 |
3 |
9 | 8 |
28. |
Phoenix |
.424 |
2 |
6 | 9 |
29. |
Chicago |
.423 |
1 |
9 | 7 |
30. |
Milwaukee |
.422 |
3 |
8 | 8 |
OppPCT = Cumulative opponent winning percentage (as of Dec. 3)
B2B = Back-to-backs (includes the Raptors’ Dec. 31-Jan. 1 back-to-back)
H | R = Home games | Road games
* The Spurs’ and Pacers’ home and road counts don’t include their two games in Paris.
Eastern Conference notes
- The Hawks (who have won five of their last six on the road) have the league’s most road-heavy January schedule, with only five of their 15 games at State Farm Arena. Their longest road trip of the season (six games over 12 days) began with a win in Toronto on Sunday and continues in Denver on Wednesday night.
- The Celtics are just 2-2 against the Western Conference, set to play 12 of their 16 January games against the West. That includes a tough, four-game road trip that begins Thursday in Minnesota and includes a visit to Oklahoma City on Sunday afternoon.
- The Nets‘ longest road trip of the season (six games over 10 days) is Jan. 10-19 and is entirely against the Western Conference. They enter January as one of six East teams with a winning record (6-4) against the West.
- The Hornets have lost 12 of their last 13 road games and will play seven of their first eight January games on the road. But they’ll finish the month with the first five games of a nine-game homestand (longest in the league this season) that includes games against the Blazers, Pelicans, Nets and Wizards.
- The Bulls have the league’s second easiest January schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage, with 10 of their 16 games against teams currently at or below .500. They’ve played just 11 of their 33 games (they’re 6-5) against that group thus far and will have a five-game homestand (Jan. 10-17) that includes games against the Wizards, Kings, Pelicans and Hornets.
- The Cavs are the only undefeated team (19-0) against the 14 teams currently at or below .500, and will play seven of their 15 January games against that group. They’re also undefeated (9-0) against the Western Conference, but will play all four of their games against the Thunder and Rockets this month.
- The Pistons‘ longest road trip of the season (five games over 10 days) is Jan. 20-29, with all five games against teams no worse than the 16-18 Pacers. It will be immediately followed by their longest homestand of the season (six games over 10 days), which runs from Jan. 31 to Feb. 9.
- The Pacers have a league-low 12 January games (with zero back-to-backs), because they’re going to Paris to play two against the Spurs. They have the East’s toughest January schedule regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage, even though only five of their 12 games are against teams currently over .500 because two of those five are against the 29-4 Cavs.
- The Heat have the league’s easiest January schedule regarding opposing defenses, with only four of their 16 games against teams that currently rank in the top 10 defensively. They’ll play all four of their games against the Jazz (30th) and Blazers (27th) this month.
- The Bucks have the league’s easiest January schedule regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage. Their second (and final) stretch of five games in seven days is Jan. 22-28 and four of the five games are on the road, but three of those road games are in New Orleans, Utah and Portland.
- The Knicks have the league’s most home-heavy January schedule, with 11 of their 15 games at Madison Square Garden. A stretch (that continues into February) where they’re playing 12 of 14 at home starts Jan. 6 with a visit from the Magic.
- The Magic rank in the bottom 10 offensively for what would be the 13th straight season and are struggling to score without Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. But they have five January games against teams that enter 2025 in the bottom five defensively (including two each against the Raptors and Blazers) and none against teams currently in the top five.
- The Sixers are 13-14 with rest, but 0-3 in the second games of back-to-backs, with a league-high five back-to-backs in January. Joel Embiid appears unlikely to play in both games of those back-to-backs and is out as they begin the first of the five in Sacramento on Wednesday.
- The Raptors have one rest-disadvantage game in January and it’s Wednesday vs. Brooklyn. They have the most East-heavy January schedule, with 13 of their 15 games within the conference.
- The Wizards have played the league’s toughest schedule to date regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage, with only six of their 30 games having come against the other 13 teams that are currently under .500. They’ll play 10 of their 17 January games (including five of their next six) against that group. The last-place teams in each conference (Washington and New Orleans) play a home-and-home set this weekend, with those being two of the Wizards’ 13 January games against the Western Conference.
Western Conference notes
- The Mavs will play their first three games of 2025 against three of the six teams that have a better record than they do, visiting Houston and Memphis with a home game against Cleveland in between. Ten of their first 13 January games are against teams that currently have winning records, a stretch that includes two games against the Thunder.
- The Nuggets are one of four teams with 17 January games and have the league’s toughest January schedule regarding opposing defenses. Only two of their 17 games are against teams — Brooklyn and Chicago — that currently rank in the bottom 10 defensively.
- The Warriors have a league-high five rest advantage games in January, with four of the five in the first nine days of 2025. But they’re 0-4 in rest-advantage games thus far and will begin a stretch of five games in seven nights on Saturday.
- The Rockets have the league’s toughest January schedule regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage, with 11 of their 15 games against teams that enter 2025 with winning records. That includes three games against the Grizzlies, two each against the Celtics and Cavs, and a league-high 10 games against teams that rank in the top 10 offensively. Houston enters the month 10-6 (tied for second best) in games played between the 16 teams currently over .500.
- The Clippers have the league’s fourth biggest differential between their record vs. the teams currently at or below .500 (13-3, fourth best) and their record against teams currently above .500 (6-11). They’ll play their first four January games against the latter group, though they’ll have rest advantages against the Hawks on Saturday and in Denver next week.
- The Lakers are two games into a stretch where they’re playing 11 of 14 at home. Their longest road trip of the season (six games over 11 days) begins Jan. 25 at Golden State.
- The Grizzlies are the only team without a January game in which their opponent is playing the second game of a back-to-back. They’ve played a league-high 16 interconference games thus far, but are currently three games into a stretch of 12 straight within the West.
- The Wolves and their sixth-ranked defense will play seven of their 16 January games against teams that rank in the top six offensively. That includes a game against the third-ranked Celtics on Thursday and five straight from Jan. 17-25, with a rest-disadvantage game against the top-ranked Cavs.
- The Pelicans, like the Wizards, will get a little bit of schedule relief this month. After they visit Miami on Wednesday, they’ll play seven of their next 10 games against teams with losing records, a stretch that includes two games each against Washington and Utah.
- The Thunder have the best record (14-4) in games played between the 16 teams currently over .500, and will play eight of their 14 January games within that group. Their first five games of 2025 (all against teams at least five games over .500) are their toughest five-game stretch remaining on the schedule.
- The Suns have the West’s easiest January schedule regarding cumulative winning percentage, with only five of their 15 games against teams that enter 2025 with winning records. Not coincidently, 11 of their 15 games are against the Eastern Conference, with two each against the Hawks, Hornets and Wizards. They’re just 2-7 against the East thus far.
- The Blazers are one of three teams – the Nuggets (12) and Rockets (11) are the others – with at least 11 January games against teams that currently have winning records. They have a better record against that group (7-13, .350) than they do against the teams currently at or below .500 (4-8, .333).
- If the Kings and interim head coach Doug Christie are going to start climbing the Western Conference standings, they’ll have to win games against the East. Nine of their 14 January games are against the other conference, against which they’re currently 3-5.
- The Spurs have the league’s second-toughest January schedule regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage, with only three of their 13 games against teams currently below .500. All three are against teams – 15-18 Chicago and 16-18 Indiana (x 2 in Paris) – that aren’t so far from .500 either. In addition to Indiana, they’ll play two January games each against the Nuggets, Bucks, Lakers and Grizzlies.
- The Jazz‘s only stretch of five games in seven days is Jan. 22-28 and includes games in Oklahoma City and Memphis. That stretch is preceded by five straight against teams with losing records, including their two games in New Orleans.
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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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