The 2024 NBA Draft was widely perceived as a weak one. Summer league did little to change that perception and so it’s not surprising that preseason expectations, for even the most promising rookies, are measured to say the least.
Not a single rookie cracked the annual CBS Sports Top 100 NBA player rankings last week and simultaneously there are questions about whether any rookies will be in a starting lineup on opening night in a few weeks.
Nevertheless, history has shown us that virtually every draft class ultimately reveals a potential All-Star. Whom might that be in this 2024 group? Here are five rookies that we’re currently most optimistic about heading into the 2024-25 season.
Sheppard’s evaluation has been a complicated one, especially for those of us who tracked him when he was in high school. If you only saw him last year at Kentucky, the incredible shooting numbers, coupled by the defensive metrics lead to extreme enthusiasm. Supplement that with some encouraging on-ball reps in the summer league, and there’s a very real case to be made that the No. 3 overall pick could be the best player in this draft.
Sheppard shot 52% from 3 last year at Kentucky. Not only was that the best in college basketball, but it was also very unexpected based on what he showed in high school. He made only 31% of his total 3s in his final two years on the Adidas 3SSB circuit, and was a comparable 34% in the seven games captured by Synergy Sports during his senior year at North Laurel High School. If the shooting gains he showed at Kentucky prove to be even mostly sustainable at the NBA level (because 50+% probably isn’t realistic), that’s a critical first domino in his attack. It forces opposing defenders to pick him up higher on the floor, run him off the arc on his catch, and prevents them from going under ball-screens anywhere within his shooting range. In other words, it literally makes every other part of his attack easier.
What did translate from high school to college, was the defensive playmaking. His hand-eye coordination is so elite, and his playmaking metrics so high, that it almost districts from the reality that his footspeed isn’t ideal. How will the totality of that defensive impact translate, under a defensive-oriented coach like Ime Udoka will be a big key to just how many minutes he’s able to earn this season.
Houston is a team looking to contend, or at least take another step forward, in the Western Conference. The Rockets return their starting backcourt of Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet. Green played the best basketball of his short NBA career down the stretch of last season, but it came when Alperen Sengun was out of the lineup. The Rockets lacked a consistent backup point guard behind VanVleet a year ago, so at minimum Sheppard can hopefully provide that, and at most complete a potentially potent three-guard rotation that needs to counterbalance with an assortment of young and talented wings in Jabari Smith, Amen Thompson, and Cam Whitmore, all of whom need time to develop next season.
The No. 9 overall pick was the most polarizing prospect in the draft. He dominated college basketball for the past two seasons at Purdue, but was often considered a less natural fit in the NBA game. The Grizzlies taking him in the top 10 was one of the biggest surprises of draft night, even if it came only after they were rebuffed by multiple teams in their attempt to trade up for Donovan Clingan. Memphis’ pursuit of Clingan was based on the team’s lack of a starting center. With Edey now in that place, he may have a better chance than any other rookie to be a full-time starter this season. It’s that opportunity that has made Edey an early favorite to win Rookie of the Year, something that would have seemed improbable as recently as six months ago.
The role is going to be vastly different then what we saw in college though. While Purdue pounded the ball inside and built its offense around spacing off the post, the Grizzlies are going to be a pick-and-roll-based system with one of the most dynamic creators in the league, Ja Morant. In addition to being massive, the 7-foot-4 Edey is also an exceptional screener. The extent to which he can show progress playing out of short rolls and maybe even stretching the floor will ultimately dictate his offensive ceiling. He has also continued to make strides with his conditioning, an area we saw consistent growth in during college. The biggest questions though are on the defensive end of the floor, where he projects as strictly a drop-coverage pick-and-roll defender, and will need to prove he can keep more mobile rollers from getting behind him while simultaneously keeping the ball-handler in front of him.
If there was ever a year that a team didn’t want to win the lottery, it was 2024. Not just because there were no clear-cut budding stars atop the draft, but because landing the top pick comes with built-in expectations, from both fans and ownership alike. Risacher is not your typical first overall pick. He’s much more of a 3-and-D style role player than the type of creator or high upside prospect that typically goes number one. Additionally, he had some very substantial ups and downs last season in France. The reality is that he might not have even gone number one had Alex Sarr not forced Atlanta’s hand. So, it’s clear, that Risacher shouldn’t be measured by the same standard that typically accompanies this pick.
Even still, if the shooting and the defense prove to be reliable, there could be an opportunity. Atlanta is obviously Trae Young’s team and with Dejounte Murray now in New Orleans, after being unable to form any chemistry with Young, the majority of minutes on the two respective wings are likely to be divided between Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, Dyson Daniels, and Risacher. There is also a non-zero chance that Atlanta opts to blow this whole thing up at some point, move Young, and start their rebuild around young pieces like Risacher, Daniels, and Jalen Johnson, which is a proposition that would surely increase Risacher’s role and projected statistical output.
Sarr was the player most people expected to be the first pick in the draft when the lottery order was decided. When Atlanta ultimately got the number one pick though, Sarr and his representatives pretty much dictated that he end up in Washington. The rationale seemed clear enough. The Wizards are rebuilding, making no real effort to win right now, and thus should theoretically have more minutes and opportunity for Sarr to get on the floor next season. The decision to sign Jonas Valanciunas to a three-year $30 million dollar deal was a bit contradictory to that line of thinking though, considering the 32-year-old has been primarily a starter in the league for more than a decade. Of course the Wizards also return Kyle Kuzma, arguably their best player and projected starter at the 4.
Where does that leave Sarr? There’s a case to be made that it’s an ideal scenario for his development. Right now, Sarr may be too physically weak to play the 5 against NBA starters, yet his lack of reliable offense makes him limited at power forward. Playing behind Valanciunas, against the opposition’s second-unit center, is his best chance to get game reps at that position, take advantage of his quickness on the offensive end, and continue to accentuate the defensive potential that scouts were most enthusiastic about coming into the draft. So for now, he looks most likely to develop off the bench, until he’s ready to take on a more significant role alongside other young pieces like Bilal Coulibaly and Bub Carrington.
Because opportunity may be the biggest requisite for early success of NBA rookies, Castle gets the final spot on this list. The Spurs have a generational talent to build around in Victor Wembanyama, and while he was every bit as good as advertised last season, the rest of the roster was not yet ready to compete for the playoffs. The most glaring hole on the roster was at the point guard position. Jeremy Sochan actually started there at the beginning of the 2023-24 campaign, pivoting from his normal position at the four.
This year, they drafted Castle, who played exclusively on the wing last year at UConn, and signed future Hall of Famer Chris Paul to help mentor their new rookie. Tre Jones is also back and in the final year of his contract. The bottom line is that it appears Castle will have an opportunity to prove he’s capable of being the Spurs big lead guard of the future this season, and even if he ends up being best off the ball, he’s still expected to be a long-term building block because of his perimeter size, strength, physicality, and defense. If the shooting, which has been an Achilles’ heel to date, ever truly clicks, it unlocks much higher upside outcomes.
Honorable Mention: Dalton Knecht, Lakers; Donovan Clingan, Portland Trail Blazers; Matas Buzelis, Chicago Bulls
