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A lot of this analysis points to a 3-point prop for Champagnie, but he has some chops off the bounce as well, which is why going with the points is the safer option.
This is a number that Champagnie hit in the first two games of the year, scoring 18 & 12 points in those two games, and then he fell short of it in the last two games.
He has not shot well recently, but the good news is that he has kept shooting. The last two games combined, he has gone 3-for-12 from the field after going 11-for-20 combined in the first two games.
Wednesday’s game also marked the fewest minutes he’s played all year (20), and that was after averaging about 27 minutes in the first three games.
In a plus matchup that is perfect for his skill set, he should have a good game tonight against the Jazz.
Julian Champagnie over 9.5 points (-110): 1 Unit
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8 p.m. ET
This one is just a classic fade of recent results, as Brook Lopez has been shooting a decent amount but has not shot well. He also has a juicy matchup against a Grizzlies defense that will leave centers wide open from 3-point range.
Lopez has only gone over this number in one of four games, but here are his 3PA in those games: 1-for-6, 1-for-6, 3-for-5, 0-for-4. He is shooting just over 23 percent from deep, but we love these 3PA numbers.
For context, over the last two seasons, he has made at least two 3-pointers in 62 percent of games in which he has attempted at least four 3-pointers, which is the floor of what we are projecting for him tonight.
He quietly leads the Bucks in CnS 3PA per game at 5.3, which is how you target the Grizzlies defense.
Memphis is currently allowing the second-most CnS 3PA, behind only the Oklahoma City Thunder. Despite giving up a lot of these attempts, they do not give up a lot from the corner, as they are in the bottom-10 in terms of corner 3PA allowed.
Instead, these CnS opportunities come from above-the-break, where they allow the third-most 3PA in the NBA. Lopez is second on the Bucks in this category.
The Grizzlies are also known to leave centers wide open to shoot 3-pointers, as they have two bigs in Steven Adams and Zach Edey who do not guard centers on the perimeter. They have allowed the 10th-most made 3-pointers to centers on the year.
We will gladly take the plus-money price on Lopez needing to make two 3-pointers to cash this one out.
Brook Lopez over 1.5 made 3-pointers (+106): 1 Unit
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Clippers, 10:30 p.m. ET
Harden had 12 rebounds in this exact matchup against the Suns in the first game of the year, and this is the perfect matchup for Harden to rack up a bunch of rebounds instead of Clips C Ivica Zubac.
Generally, teams that shoot more jump-shots create more rebound opportunities for guards as opposed to centers. The opposite is true for teams that shoot a ton in the restricted area.
Case in point: the Nuggets, who take the second-most shots in the restricted area, allow the second-most rebounds to centers.
So, with a heavy jump-shooting team like the Suns, it is no surprise that this is the matchup where Harden collected 12 rebounds on 21 rebound chances in his team’s season opener on October 23.
Even though that looks like it was the outlier for Harden this season, he also had at least six board in his team’s next two games before narrowly missing it last night, with five boards.
Of course, he missed it last night against a Portland team that takes the most shots in the league in the restricted area.
The Suns, meanwhile, have unsurprisingly taken the fewest shots per game in the restricted area.
Just look at what non-centers have done from a rebound perspective against the Suns: Rui Hachimura had 10 and Austin Reaves had 15 in the same game for the Lakers, and Luka Doncic had 10 rebounds against this team.
Of course, Harden himself also had 12 against Phoenix last week. Look for Harden to grab at least six boards tonight.
James Harden over 5.5 rebounds (+122): 1 Unit
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