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With that thought in mind, here is last year’s data regarding point guard props against the Celtics.
In 2023-24, the Celtics allowed the second-most above-the-break three point attempts in the NBA (28.7), and they allowed the sixth-most points per game to pick-and-roll ball handlers.
They also allowed the third-most pull-up field goal attempts and the most pull-up three point attempts in the NBA at 11.4, and they were one of only two teams that allowed more than 11 per game.
Last year, Brunson ran the fourth-most pick-and-rolls in the NBA and averaged the most field goal attempts out of the pick-and-rolls. Overall, he averaged the third-most points in the league via the pick-and-roll.
He also averaged the third-most pull-up field goal attempts in the NBA, and was top-20 in terms of pull-up 3-point attempts specifically, but was by far the Knicks’ leader in this stat.
Even with the additions of Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges, Brunson is still going to shoulder a heavy workload as the main creator for the Knicks offense.
Brunson scored 30-plus points in only two of his five games against Boston last year, which happened to be the final regular-season meetings of the year between these teams.
He did hit at least three 3-pointers in four of five games against the Celtics, though, which is why it makes sense to have some action on both of these props.
For our second and final play of the evening, we are not using last year’s data at all, but instead projecting a new role for Donte DiVincenzo on a new team.
The reason this is a strong play is because it looks as though DiVincenzo is going to be the backup point guard for the Timberwolves as opposed to just being a catch-and-shoot, three-and-D player like he was on the Knicks.
Last year, he only averaged 2.7 assists per game. That is where this over/under is being priced this season as well, as he’s currently expected to have the same type of season that he did last year as a Knick.
In the preseason for the Timberwolves, DiVincenzo played in three games where he actually played meaningful minutes, and here is how he performed:
When asked about this, Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch essentially said that DiVincenzo is going to be the backup point guard to Mike Conley, and Finch added that DiVincenzo has been phenomenal with the ball in his hands.
Obviously, looking at preseason data is not always perfect, but the logic that the Timberwolves wanted to give DiVincenzo extended run as the point guard in the preseason to get him as many reps as possible in that role is sound.
In terms of the matchup, it is hard to know what to expect from the Lakers and their defense with J.J. Redick as their new head coach, so this is less a matchup-based play and moreso an example of us calling our shot on a new role for DiVincenzo.
Donte DiVincenzo 4+ Assists (+128): 0.50 Units
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