As the 2024 NBA Playoffs surge on, the betting odds for the NBA Finals and conference championships have changed quite a bit over the past few weeks.
For months, we have had a good idea of which squads will be contending for the 2024 NBA Championship. But which favorites serve as the best NBA Finals bets now that only eight teams remain? Do any sleepers yield value in the NBA betting market?
We’ll answer all those questions and more as we update the 2024 NBA championship odds and reveal our latest best bets to win it all and hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
Here are the latest odds to win the NBA Finals, odds to win the Eastern Conference and odds to win the Western Conference.
All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
| Team | Odds | East | West |
| Celtics | -135 | -1000 | |
| Nuggets | +225 | -135 | |
| Mavericks | +1000 | +250 | |
| Wolves | +1800 | +750 | |
| Knicks | +2500 | +700 | |
| Thunder | +2500 | +900 | |
| Pacers | +10000 | +2500 |
Not surprisingly, the Celtics (-135) have the shortest NBA Finals odds. They have dominated the NBA this season, clinching No. 1 early and enjoying the benefit of resting stars in the closing weeks of the regular season. They haven’t just been beating opponents in the playoffs — they have been destroying them. Boston represents BetMGM’s biggest liability on the conference championship and Finals NBA betting markets.
The Nuggets (+225) have much more competition out West this year, and they hit the skids a bit earlier in their second-round series against the Timberwolves after completing a gentleman’s sweep of the Lakers in the first round. Denver jumped all the way up to +3500 after falling behind 2-0, but now shortened back to +350 after regaining form. Michael Malone’s squad ranks as BetMGM’s biggest Finals liability on the NBA betting market, appearing on 17.9 percent of championship tickets and generating 28.5 percent of the NBA Finals handle.
Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and the Mavericks (+1000) went on a late-season rampage up the standings and took care of business in the first round against the Clippers. When odds opened at the start of the postseason, BetMGM gave Dallas an implied probability of just under four percent to win the Finals. That’s less Luka respect than we’ve seen out of Devin Booker! Sportsbooks have since come around on Dallas, which is now playing some of the best defense in the postseason. Don’t sleep on JKidd’s squad!
The books started to respect the Wolves (+1800) after they punched the Nuggets in the mouth earlier in the second round, shortening them to +300. Now that Denver made it a series again, Minnesota lengthened back to +1800. Minnesota swept Kevin Durant and the super-Suns in the first round, and Chris Finch’s squad spent most of the season tied at or close to first. The Wolves have the No. 1 defense in hoops, and Anthony Edwards is a bona fide superstar.
The Thunder (+2500) stay closer to the driver’s seat than Dallas after winning Game 4 and tying up the series. They been winning all season, ranking amongst the best in the league in offensive and defensive rating despite being the youngest squad in the NBA. Bettors took a while to catch on — OKC appeared on just under four percent of NBA Finals tickets at the start of the playoffs and comprised less than three percent of all money bet in the Finals futures market.
Jalen Brunson and the Knicks (+2500) went 20-3 with OG Anunoby active during the 2023-24 regular season and they were superb at home all season. However, OG is now hurt and the Pacers have clawed back to make this a series. We listed New York as an insanely-strong value play after Tom Thibodeau’s squad somehow opened the playoffs at +4000 to win it all, but it’s hard to trust a team this banged up.
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The Pacers (+10000) have gone from +10000 to +5000 and back again multiple times this postseason. Rick Carlisle has done a tremendous job with this team in terms of offense and pace, and Indiana even plays defense now! Still, getting past the Knicks, the Celtics, and whoever represents the West will be a tall order.
It’s hard to stay away from the Celtics as the best bet to win it all. They have been the most complete team from top to bottom on both ends of the floor, and they seem to be suffering from far fewer issues with late-game isolation attempts and poor execution. Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday have fit like gloves in Joe Mazzulla’s system, and the Boston bench has been better than any the diehard Green-teamers expected. Bettors will need to monitor KP’s health, as he has already missed some time due to a calf injury — but if he’s around in June, the Celtics should be as well.
The best bet to win either conference, however, looks like the Wolves. Minnesota has been making the reigning-champion Nuggets look outmatched on both ends of the floor, and Anthony Edwards looks like the best player in the sport. This team is scary good and it’s finally healthy at the right time.
Who knows how they can be considered sleepers at this point, but the Mavericks should scare the living daylights out of the West. It’s understandable if you don’t want to pull the trigger with a big bet on Dallas to win it all, but +475 to win the Western Conference Finals seems too good to pass up. If Denver doesn’t rep the West, it will more than likely be the Mavs. Luka and Kyrie remain as clutch as anyone in the league, P.J. Washington has emerged as a dependable third scorer, and Dallas has been defending the rim with a tenacity unrivaled by any other playoff team. Don’t bet the farm, but a modest wager could pay off handsomely in a few weeks!
