Last time, I ran the top five from Tankathon’s Big Board through the YODA version of my statistical doppelgänger machine. The five: Zaccharie Risacher, Nikola Topic, Alex Sarr, Reed Sheppard, and Stephon Castle.
As is frequently the case a week before the draft, the Big Board has been tweaked for…reasons.
This time, I’ll run through the next five of the current top 10, and cherrypick a few guys I’ve gotten questions about or who interest me.
For those just checking in on the draft, YODA is short for “Ye Olde Draft Analyzer,” which is a stat-based draft prospect evaluation tool I’ve been tinkering with for the past 10+ drafts. The statistical doppelgänger machine compares players using stats instead of superficial characteristics like skin color or build.
Matas Buzelis — Reputedly a skilled forward, Buzelis had a disastrous experience with a dsyfunctional (and now defunct) G League Ignite team. Top comps:
Best of this group is Wood — an effective offensive player who has trouble staying on the floor because of his indifferent defense.
Donovan Clingan — Superb defender who anchored the middle for NCAA champion Connecticut. Averaged 4.4 blocks per 40 last season, which is excellent. Efficient on offense because just about everything he did offensively was within three feet of the basket. Superb offensive rebounder. Tested slow and ground-bound at the combine. Top comps:
Clingan is something of an oddball in the YODA database. The top couple comps are about as close as the norm for third or fourth closest for most players. Obviously, whoever’s drafting him would hope for a player in the Capela, Jackson, Favors grouping, and not Okafor.
Dalton Knecht — Good shooter with excellent agility. Already 23 years old. He rates just outside the top 10 in YODA. In a more normal draft, he’d rate just outside the lottery. Top comps:
Not a super-impressive group, though Grimes is decent. The comps just down the list are more promising: Malik Monk, Harrison Barnes, Malcolm Brogdon, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Buddy Hield.
Rob Dillingham — Small and quick, Dillingham should be able to find an NBA role as an offensive sparkplug. He’s another relative oddball in YODA — not many players like him.
Sexton is the best of this group, and the comp who feels closest to right. My next pick for best comp would be the next name on the list: Jeff Teague, who was a good NBA guard for several years.
Ron Holland — Another talented G League Ignite player whose final season before entering the draft was rough. His offensive efficiency was terrible (nearly 20 points per 100 possessions below G League average). He shot just 24.0% on threes, and committed loads of turnovers and fouls.
Devin Carter — Good production at Providence, and he tested as the best athlete at the Draft Combine.
Isaiah Collier — Big and quick, though he didn’t exactly play like it (anemic rebounding and blocks for a guy who’s supposed to be a plus athlete). He also committed a whopping 4.4 turnovers per 40 minutes — highest rate in the draft. The production could have been affected by a bad team situation at USC.
Bright side: all these comps at least played in the NBA. The dark side: none of them were anything more than decent role players, except for about six weeks from Lin.
DaRon Holmes II — Interesting forward prospect with adequate size, good shooting, solid rebounding, and even some assists. Blocked 2.5 shots per 40 minutes for Dayton last season.
Zach Edey — Massive big man who was back-to-back NCAA player of the year. I keep seeing comps to Mark Eaton, which makes no sense — Eaton was a non-scorer who couldn’t get off the bench when he was at UCLA. Edey posted strong agility times at the combine. He’s another statistical weirdo — not many players with his mix of big-time scoring and rebounding, frequent trips to the free throw line (14.0 per 40 minutes), and all-around production.
I can feel the eyerolls upon seeing Cousins as the top comp. That was my first reaction too. Except, Edey scored more than Cousins (per minute) on comparable usage because he shot better on twos and free throws. Neither guy took enough threes to make a difference. Cousins grabbed a few more rebounds (16.8 per 40 to Edey’s 15.2) and produced more steals and blocks. Edey got to FT line more often, fouled less, and committed fewer turnovers.
Just to be clear, I’m not expecting Edey to be the next Cousins. I suspect he’ll be a better NBA player than where he’s showing up on most big boards.
Bub Carrington — Seems to be a favorite prospect for a lot of draftniks. Inefficient on offense, but he does rebound a bit for a guard, and he showed some playmaking. Steal and block numbers are shockingly low, which combined with a meh two-point percentage brings applied athleticism into question.
Obviously, his fans (and whoever drafts him) is hoping for more a Maxey type than the others on this list.
Next up: the YODA Big Board.
Also, join me, Matt Modderno, and whoever else Matt can wrangle on our LIVE NBA Draft Show, on June 26.
