DraftKings’ main slate for Wednesday night features the first eight games of the evening. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Ball brings the highest projection on the slate among point guards in our ShotQuaility projections. The 23-year-old is a worthwhile spend Wednesday. The Hornets remain without Brandon Miller (glute), and with the wing off the court this season, Ball is leading Charlotte with a mammoth 37.5% usage rate – which is a 1.4 percentage point increase from his average – and 1.6 DraftKings PPM.
Facing a depleted Raptors team, the Hornets carry the fifth-highest implied team total on the slate (115.75 points), and Ball is a strong investment for over 50 DraftKings points.
Opposite of Ball, Mitchell is a great bargain Wednesday. The veteran has been starting in place of Immanuel Quickley (pelvic), and Mitchell is coming off a season-high 29 DraftKings points showing across 35 minutes Sunday vs. the Nuggets.
Listed as doubtful, Quickley is expected to remain sidelined Wednesday and joining him on the sidelines with Scottie Barnes (eye), creating a huge void for the Raptors. Albeit a limited sample of only 33 minutes, with Quickley and Barnes off the floor this season, Mitchell’s usage has jumped 8.2 percentage points to 25.3% and his assist rate has skyrocketed 13.7 percentage points to 40%, via the On/Off Tool. Mitchell is generating 1.1 DraftKings PPM with these expanded rates, and with a soft Hornets defense on the other side – they rank 18th in defensive efficiency – the veteran has a ceiling near 40 DraftKings points tonight.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
It should be a Poole party in Washington this evening. Not only is Poole in an elite spot vs. the Hawks, who rank fifth in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency, Kyle Kuzma (groin) will be missing his first game of the season for the Wizards. The forward is leading Washington in usage this season, and with Kuzma off the floor, Poole’s usage and assist rates have increased by 3.2 and 5.0 percentage points, respectively, resulting in 1.4 DraftKings PPM for the guard.
Poole is producing 45 DraftKings PPG in the last five starts he has made with Kuzma inactive, and in this 233.5-point total vs. Atlanta – which ranks second on the slate – Poole is a tremendous target at less than $8,000 on DraftKings.
With Miller remaining out, Mann is a terrific value play. With Miller inactive for the last two games, Mann has been a huge spark off the bench for the Hornets, scoring 28.5 DraftKings points in 28 minutes per game. The veteran has closed each of these last two games with Charlotte’s starters, and he should continue to see right around 30 minutes tonight against the shorthanded Raptors.
With Miller off the court this season, Mann is amassing 1.1 DraftKings PPM with a 27% usage rate, and the guard is simply underpriced for his current role.
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Tatum destroyed the Pacers for 57.8 DraftKings PPG in eight matchups last season, and his dominance against the Eastern Conference rival should continue Wednesday. Tatum has recorded at least 52 DraftKings points in three of his four starts this season, and he is shooting a career-best 51% from the field.
The Pacers have remained soft on defense this season – they rank 21st in efficiency – and the Celtics’ implied team is the highest on the slate (120.75 points). Additionally, this game’s total is the largest on the board (235 points). For the 12 instances Tatum has played behind an implied team total of at least 120 points on the road the last two seasons, he is supplying 54.7 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
Martin is on the heels of a 35 DraftKings point double-double vs. the Pacers on Sunday, and in town tonight is a Pistons team that ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency this season. With Joel Embiid (knee) and Paul George (knee) yet to play this season, Martin has seen a large role right out the gate, ranking second on the 76ers in playing time at 36 minutes a night, lifting the veteran to 29 DraftKings PPG. Plus, Martin’s usage has been at a solid 19.8%.
The wing is too cheap for this type of workload and can be trusted for all formats on Wednesday.
Johnson erupted for 59 DraftKings points vs. the Wizards on Monday and gets to face the club again this evening. Bogdan Bogdanovic (hamstring) missed this game, and now, he and Dyson Daniels (hip) will both be unavailable for the Hawks. With those two players off the floor this season, Johnson’s usage has risen 3.9 percentage points to 26.6% – which only trails Trae Young for this situation – and Johnson has led the Hawks with 1.4 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
As noted above, this game’s total is the second-highest on the slate (233.5 points), and Johnson’s ceiling ranks inside the top 10 on the slate in the ShotQuaility projections. Another huge outing is possible for the forward, and he is a player you must have some exposure to tonight.
Regardless of Ja Morant’s (questionable, thigh) status, Aldama warrants GPP consideration. The forward has been very productive no matter who is available for the Grizzlies this season, with Adlama going off for at least 37 DraftKings points in three of his four games. The veteran is shooting 56% from the field – including 46% from beyond the arc – and producing 1.2 DraftKings PPM.
Tonight, Memphis is hosting a Nets team that is coming off a tough overtime loss to the Nuggets last night. Brooklyn ranks 27th in defensive efficiency, and the Grizzlies’ implied team total ranks second on the slate (119.25 points) despite Morant being questionable. Aldama brings much better upside than his salary suggests in this spot, and he will likely come with little ownership in GPPs – he has been less than 9% owned in DraftKings’ main GPP of the night for three straight games.
Davis has been on a roll to start this season and must be considered, even in this tough matchup vs. the Cavaliers, who rank fourth in defensive efficiency. In his first four starts of the season, Davis has scored no less than 54 DraftKings points, including a 71.5 DraftKings point outing vs. the Timberwolves in the season opener. LeBron James has let Davis be the Lakers’ main option this season, with the big man leading the team in usage at 31% – which is his highest rate since 2017 – while James has ranked second at 25%.
This strategy makes a ton of sense, with James possibly playing his last season at 39 years old. Davis is a safe bet for over 50 DraftKings points tonight.
Poeltl has topped 40 DraftKings points in two of his last three starts, and the center should be in store for a large workload with Barnes and Quickley missing. The Raptors like to use Barnes as a big for small-ball lineups, and his absence should translate into a near 30-minute role for Poeltl.
The center is collecting 1.2 DraftKings PPM with Barnes and Quickley off the floor this season, and Charlotte is always a prime spot for opposing big men. Last year, they surrendered the eighth-most points in the paint. Poeltl is better suited for GPPs, but for that format, he is an appealing option who has the potential for over 40 DraftKings points and should be low-owned.
