DraftKings’ main slate for Wednesday includes the first nine games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Cunningham is coming off a quiet 35.25 DraftKings point outing vs. the Cavaliers, but he should bounce back in a big way. Cunningham had recorded at least 54 DraftKings points in three straight games before the speedbump vs. Cleveland, and on tap for Wednesday is an appealing matchup vs. the Pacers, who rank ninth in pace and 19th in defensive efficiency.
Jaden Ivey (leg) remains sidelined for the Pistons, and in the 15 starts Cunningham has made without Ivey this season, Cunningham is producing 53.3 DraftKings PPG. Cunningham scores 1.5 DraftKings points per minute with a 35% usage rate with Ivey off the floor this season — which is a +2.0 percentage point lift from his average — and Cunningham brings a top-three ceiling on the slate in the ShotQuality projections.
After being very limited to start the season, Ball’s role has increased to around 25 minutes a night as of late. The guard is on the heels of a 29 DraftKings point showing vs. the Nuggets, and Ball has even better upside tonight with Zach LaVine (personal) sidelined.
The shooting guard leads the Bulls in usage this season, and with LaVine off the floor, Ball’s usage rises +4.5%. His assist rate skyrockets +10.0 percentage points, both of which are team-highs. With these increased rates, Ball generates 1.0 DraftKings PPM, and despite this tough matchup vs. a Celtics defense that ranks sixth in defensive efficiency, Ball should easily surpass 5x value. Also, Coby White (ankle) is questionable, and if he sits, Ball will become an even stronger option.
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Scoring over 40 DraftKings points in three of his last four starts, Brown is a viable option no matter what against this Bulls team that ranks third in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency. But, if Jayson Tatum (questionable; knee) sits, Brown will become a must-play.
The wing has made three starts without Tatum this season, and Brown has led the Celtics with 48.2 DraftKings PPG in those tilts. With Tatum off the court this season, Brown’s usage and assist rates rise 4.7 and 9.7 percentage points, respectively, resulting in 1.3 DraftKings PPM.
With the Nets still without Cam Thomas (hamstring) and Cameron Johnson (ankle), Russell should easily beat this salary as Brooklyn’s top option. The ex-Laker has played three games with Thomas and Johnson inactive this season, and Russell has led the Nets with 37.3 DraftKings PPG on those occasions. With both Thomas and Johnson off the floor, Russell leads Brooklyn with a 29% usage rate, a mammoth 52% assist rate and 1.5 DraftKings PPM.
The Hornets rank 14th in defensive efficiency, but they are down their top three players tonight and should be weak on the defensive end. Russell has 40 DraftKings point upside in this spot and is far too cheap for his expected role.
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The Raptors have won four games in a row, and Barnes has been a huge factor in their success, topping 50 DraftKings points in three of those games. Now, the forward gets the best possible matchup he could ask for, going against a Wizards team that ranks fourth in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency. The Raptors carry the fifth-highest implied team total on the slate in this dream spot (118.25 points), and Immanuel Quickley (hip) continues to be sidelined.
Barnes leads the Raptors with 1.3 DraftKings PPM with Quickley off the floor this season, and Barnes has gone off for at least 56 DraftKings points in two of the four games he has played behind an implied team total of at least 115 points this season. Barnes is underpriced for his upside and is a terrific high-end target.
With Brandon Miller (wrist) sidelined, Okogie has been great off the bench for the Hornets, scoring 32.6 DraftKings points in 25.2 minutes per game in his last three. Miller is out for the season and LaMelo Ball (ankle) and Mark Williams (foot) will be inactive Wednesday as well.
Okogie should see a large role regardless if he starts or not with Charlotte so understaffed, and this is a great matchup with the Nets ranking 26th in defensive efficiency. While a limited sample of 30 minutes, Okogie has been outstanding with Ball, Miller and Williams off the court, leading the Hornets with 1.6 DraftKings PPM. Okogie is averaging 27.5 DraftKings PPG in the 10 contests where he has seen at least 20 minutes this season, and he is a core play at this cheap salary. In our ShotQuality projections, Okogie is the No. 1 value on the slate.
Continuing with the depleted Hornets, Bridges is a great spend tonight. The forward has made four starts without Ball and Miller this season, and Bridges has led Charlotte with 44.6 DraftKings PPG and a 32.9% usage rate in those contests. Overall, with Ball, Miller and Williams off the court this season, Bridges is amassing 1.3 DraftKings PPM.
Bridges’ salary doesn’t reflect his role as the Hornets’ alpha tonight, and he should have zero problems surpassing 5x value against this lowly Nets team.
Facing a 76ers team that is on the second night of a back-to-back and ranks second-to-last in defensive rating this month, the Kings carry the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate (119 points). At this affordable salary, Murray is one of the best ways to gain a piece of Sacramento. The forward is scoring 27.1 DraftKings points in 35.1 minutes per game this season, and he has been extremely active as an outside shooter under Kings’ interim HC Doug Christie, with Murray averaging 6.1 3-point attempts per game over his last 10.
Philadelphia is allowing opponents to hit 3-pointers at the second-highest rate in the NBA this month, and Murray should score over 25 DraftKings points in this ideal spot.
Sabonis should dominate this Embiid-less 76ers team. He’s in the midst of an incredible run, scoring over 50 DraftKings points in nine of his last 10 starts, including four efforts north of 60 DraftKings points. Sabonis is amassing 1.5 DraftKings PPM this month, and with Embiid and Andre Drummond absent, Philadelphia has been starting the 6’8″ Guerschon Yabusele at center.
Sabonis stands two inches taller than Yabusele, and he should be able to crack the 50-fantasy point threshold once again. The Kings carry an implied team total of 119 points, and Sabonis has averaged 54.9 DraftKings PPG in 10 games with an implied team total of at least 118 this season (via the Trends Tool).
With Williams out and Nick Richards now with the Suns, Diabate should operate as Diabte’s main center tonight. The Hornets played their first game without both Williams and Richards this past Saturday vs. the Pelicans, and while Taj Gibson started, Diabate was the main beneficiary, posting 33.25 DraftKings points in 29 minutes off the bench.
Our ShotQuality projections are slating Diabate for 28 minutes of work tonight, which is more than enough time for him to easily beat his cheap salary against this Nets defense that ranks 26th in efficiency. This season, Diabate is averaging 0.9 DraftKings PPM and 28.3 DraftKings PPG when he has logged at least 25 minutes (nine games). Trailing only his teammate in Okogie, Diabate is the second-best value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections and is an unavoidable value play at only $3,700.
