Wednesday’s main slate on DraftKings includes the first seven games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Ball brings the highest ceiling on the slate in our ShotQuality projections and is a terrific value tonight. The guard has scored at least 52 DraftKings points in three of his past five starts and is competing in the highest total on the slate (240.5 points) against a Grizzlies team that leads the league in pace. The Hornets rank 18th in the metric, so this is a huge pace increase for Ball, and this is the largest total he has played in this season by a notable five points.
Ball already leads the NBA in usage rate this season, but his role should be even larger than usual tonight with Brandon Miller (wrist) sidelined. With the wing off the court this season, Ball’s usage rises 1.5 percentage points to a mammoth 39.3%, via the On/Off Tool. The guard is underpriced for his slate-best ceiling and is a great building block for all formats.
Dillingham is a viable full punt tonight that will help you roster multiple studs. Donte DiVincenzo (toe) is out and with the veteran absent for the last three, Dillingham has produced 17.7 DraftKings points in 16 minutes per game. This is a small workload, but the No.8 overall pick from this past NBA draft has been very productive with DiVincenzo off the court, scoring 1.1 DraftKings PPM with a large 26.2% usage rate, via the On/Off Tool.
These are terrific numbers for a player priced near the bare minimum, and Dillingham has 20 DraftKings point upside tonight, which would be a sensational return considering his salary.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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While this matchup isn’t ideal, with the Rockets ranking second in defensive efficiency, Mitchell is very underpriced with Evan Mobley (calf) sidelined. The forward will miss his fifth game of the season tonight, and in those first four, Mitchell led the Cavaliers with 52.1 DraftKings PPG and a 34.4% usage rate, which is a 3.4 percentage point lift from his average.
This game carries a healthy 231-point total, and Cleveland is only favored by three points, so despite Houston being a strong defensive group, this is an appealing game environment to target. Mitchell should have no issues out-producing his salary and is one of the better high-end values available Wednesday.
Smith has been Miller’s replacement in the Hornets’ starting five for the last two games, and Smith has been great with the starting job, scoring 24.25 DraftKings points vs. the Bulls and 27.75 DraftKings points vs. the Mavericks. The guard has received at least 25 minutes in both of these starts, and with Miller off the court this season, Smith is amassing 0.9 DraftKings PPM with a 21.9% usage rate, via the On/Off Tool.
Playing way up in pace vs. the Grizzlies, Smith is rating as the No.1 value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections and is good chalk to embrace tonight.
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Thompson has been seeing huge playing time with Jabari Smith Jr. (hand) sidelined. Thompson has started in place of Smith Jr. for the last seven games, and with a team-high 39 minutes per game, Thompson has tallied at least 46 DraftKings points four times.
Thompson is scoring 1.1 DraftKings PPM with Smith Jr. off the floor, and while Thompson is going against a Cavaliers defense that ranks ninth in efficiency, Cleveland ranks eighth in pace, and with the Cavaliers only favored by three points, Thompson garners right around 40 minutes of work. With this type of volume, Thompson brings high upside and must be considered.
McDaniels is too cheap for the role he handles sans DiVincenzo. With the wing inactive Monday vs. the Grizzlies, McDaniels logged a season-high 42.1 minutes and posted a double-double of 36.5 DraftKings points.
The forward is supplying 30 DraftKings points in 38 minutes per game with DiVincenzo sidelined for the last three, and while this matchup vs. the Mavericks isn’t great – they rank 12th in defensive efficiency – McDaniels is clearly underpriced for his current role. The forward should out-produce his salary with ease and is an easy choice Wednesday.
The Grizzlies boast the highest implied team total on the slate (126.25 points), which is notably the largest implied team total this fast-paced Memphis team has seen this season. With a 29.5% usage rate, Jackson Jr. is producing 1.4 DraftKings PPM this season, and he has topped 40 DraftKings points in nine of his past 14 starts.
Jackson Jr. is scoring 44.5 DraftKings PPG for the last five occasions he has played behind an implied team total of at least 120 points – via the Trends Tool – and the forward has a high ceiling worth perusing in GPPs tonight.
Just like McDaniels, Reid is vastly underpriced for life without DiVincenzo and is one of the best targets on the slate. With DiVincenzo sidelined for the last three, Reid is producing 38.5 DraftKings points in 28 minutes per game off the bench while shooting an eye-popping 63% on three-pointers. Only trailing Anthony Edwards, Reiod has ranked second on the Timberwolves in usage in these last three at 24.6%, which is a notable lift from his 21.1% average for the season.
Minnesota should continue to feed the red-hot Reid tonight, and he should score a minimum of 30 DraftKings points. With DiVincenzo off the court this season, Reid is producing 1.1 DraftKings PPM.
Williams has been dominant and showing why the Hornets were so quick to trade Nick Richards to the Suns last week. In Williams’ last four starts, the center has supplied 51.2 DraftKings points in 32 minutes per game. As noted above, Miller is out tonight, and with the wing off the court this season, Williams is scoring 1.43 DraftKings PPM with a 22% usage rate.
The Grizzlies lead the league in pace, and this game’s total is the largest on the slate (240.5 points). Williams brings huge upside in this spot, and this may be the cheapest we see him for the rest of the season.
Facing a Jazz team that ranks second-to-last in defensive efficiency, the Thunder carry the second-largest implied team total on the slate (122.5 points), and with this affordable salary, Williams is the best way to gain exposure to Oklahoma City. With Chet Holmgren (hip) and Isaiah Hartenstien (calf) sidelined, Williams has started at center and has been excellent in his past two, posting 33.5 DraftKings points vs. the Mavericks and 36 DraftKings points vs. the Nets while logging 28.7 minutes per game.
Utah is the best matchup Williams has faced as Oklahoma City’s starting center and another outing over 30 DraftKings points is a realistic expectation for him tonight.
