On the schedule for Thursday night is a five-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
While DraftKings quickly increased Reaves’ salary in the wake of the news that Anthony Davis (abdominal) will miss at least a week, Reaves is still underpriced for his upside tonight in this dream spot vs. the Wizards. Washington ranks fourth in pace, second-to-last in defensive efficiency and are playing their second game in two nights. This is the best possible matchup Reaves could ask for, and with Davis inactive this season, Reaves has been outstanding, scoring 45.8 DraftKings PPG (three games).
With Davis off the floor this season, Reaves’ usage rate rises by +4.2 percentage points, and he produces 1.12 DraftKings PPM (via the On/Off Tool). The guard has a ceiling above 50 DraftKings points in this perfect situation and is one of the best spends on the board Thursday.
Also, while he feels likely to play, it is worth noting LeBron James (foot) is questionable, and if he joins Davis on the sidelines, Reaves will be a must-play. With James and Davis off the floor this season, Reaves is leading the Lakers with 1.6 DraftKings PPM.
Going against the Jazz and their league-worst defense, Conley is a viable punt play with Donte DiVincenzo (toe) still out. Conley has scored at least 22 DraftKings points in four of his last five with DiVincenzo sidelined, and with the ex-Knick off the floor this season, Conley is supplying 0.9 DraftKings PPM.
Conley should top 20 DraftKings points tonight and likely won’t be a popular option.
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The Grizzlies lead the league in pace, and Green has averaged 47.25 DraftKings PPG in three meetings with Memphis. This game carries the highest total on the slate (238 points), making Green a great target no matter what in this likely shootout.
However, he would become unavoidable if Alperen Sengun (questionable; calf) is unable to suit up. The center has yet to miss a game this season, but in the 17 starts Green made without Sengun last season, the former generated 41 DraftKings PPG. With Sengun off the court this season, Green’s usage increases by 4.5 percentage points to 32.1%, and he scores 1.2 DraftKings PPM.
Hosting a Hawks team that ranks second in pace and has lost six games in a row, the Cavaliers present the highest implied team total on the slate (123.25 points). Caris LeVert (wrist) is likely to miss his seventh straight game, and with the wing out, Strus is an appealing, cheap way to attack Cleveland. The veteran reentered the Cavaliers’ starting lineup five games ago and has scored at least 24 DraftKings points in four of these contests.
Strus provides 0.9 DraftKings PPM with LeVert off the floor this season, and Strus should surpass 5x value against this fast-paced Hawks team that struggles to defend outside shooters. Strus is attempting 5.4 3-pointers per game this season, and Atlanta is allowing the second-most made 3-pointers in the league.
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After being limited in his first start back after a long absence due to an oblique injury, Wagner has seen no restrictions in his last two starts and has scored 49 and 43 DraftKings points. The wing got all the way up to 39.5 minutes in Monday’s win over the Heat, and he should approach 40 minutes tonight in what is expected to be a competitive matchup vs. a Portland team that has won five of their last six games.
The Trail Blazers rank 26th in defensive efficiency this season, and Wagner is underpriced for his potential in this strong spot. The 23-year-old is handling a 32% usage rate, and Wagner has been awesome in spreads of five points or less, scoring 46.2 DraftKings PPG in 12 contests (via the Trends Tool).
Hachimura posted 25 DraftKings points across 32 minutes vs. the Nets the last time Davis was out and should produce an even better fantasy score tonight in this league-best matchup vs. his former team.
With Davis off the court this season, Hachimura’s usage rate increases by +1.5 percentage points, and he generates 0.9 DraftKings PPM. Hachimura is too cheap for life without Davis and is one of the best forward values on the slate.
As mentioned above, James (foot) is questionable tonight, but the 40-year-old has regularly played through questionable tags this season and should suit up the Lakers already missing Davis. As expected, James has stepped up with Davis out this season. In the three starts James has made without Davis, James has led the Lakers with 56.7 DraftKings PPG and a 34% usage rate, which is a +3.9 percentage point lift from his average.
Playing way up in pace against the Wizards creates a perfect scenario for James to stuff the stat sheet, and he is the No. 1 play on the slate as long as he is active. James tallied a 62 DraftKings point triple-double against this same Wizards team last week with Davis active. With the big man missing this time around, no player brings a higher ceiling than James in our ShotQuality projections.
Kuzma finished with 33 DraftKings points last night vs. the Raptors and posted 30.25 DraftKings points vs. the Lakers last week.
Averaging 40.3 DraftKings PPG in his last five meetings with the Lakers, Kuzma clearly enjoys playing against his original team. He is underpriced for his upside against a Lakers’ defense that will absolutely be weaker without Davis. With Davis off the floor this season, the Lakers’ defense rating has dropped 3.2 points.
After missing four games with a calf injury, Mobley has shown no signs of rust, with at least 42 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. The big man is scoring 1.3 DraftKings PPM with a career-high 22.9% usage rate this season and has dominated the Hawks this season, finishing with 60.5 and 46.5 DraftKings points in his two previous matchups.
Jalen Johnson was available for the Hawks for both of those contests but is now out for the season. Johnson leads the Hawks in Net Rating, and Atlanta’s defensive rating has been 2.3 points worse with him off the court this season. When playing behind an implied team total of at least 120 points this season, Mobley has averaged 43.4 DraftKings PPG across eight games.
Gobert has scored over 30 DraftKings points in four of his last six starts and should surpass 5x value against his former team. Utah ranks dead last in defensive efficiency this season, and Gobert has posted at least 34 DraftKings points in four of his last five meetings with the Jazz. Utah also has a chance to be very thin up front with John Collins (illness) and Walker Kessler (shoulder) both questionable.
Regardless, this is a tremendous spot for Gobert, and he is rating as the No. 1 center value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections.
