DraftKings’ main slate for Thursday includes the first 11 games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
With Jaden Ivey (knee) doubtful, Cunningham is a must-play. In two starts the guard has made with Ivey inactive this season, Cunningham has dominated his opponents for 69 DraftKings PPG. With Ivey off the court this season, Cunningham’s usage has increased by 2.9 percentage points, and his assist rate has jumped by 6.5 percentage points, resulting in 1.5 DraftKings PPM for the guard via the On/Off Tool.
Facing a Jazz defense that ranks dead last in defensive efficiency, Cunningham should thrive, and his ceiling is the highest on the slate in our ShotQuality projections.
Luka Doncic (heel) is out, and Kyrie Irving (shoulder) is questionable for the Mavericks tonight. Irving was able to practice Wednesday, so he is likely to play, but Doncic’s absence alone makes Dinwiddie a terrific punt play. In the six games Dallas has played with Irving active and Doncic inactive this season, Dinwiddie has been the primary beneficiary, with 38.8 DraftKings points in 26.5 minutes per game, via the On/Off Tool.
Jaden Hardy (ankle) saw 18.3 minutes per game in those contests, but the guard will also be out tonight, opening up more minutes and usage for Dinwiddie. With both Doncic and Hardy off the court this season, Dinwiddie is amassing 0.9 DraftKings PPM. Our ShotQuality projections are slating the veteran for 32 minutes and Dinwiddie has the potential to 10x this low salary, despite this lackluster matchup vs. the Clippers, who rank seventh in defensive efficiency.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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If Irving plays as expected – most major sportsbooks have props listed for him – the guard will be a terrific target at this price point. In the six starts he has made without Doncic this season, Irving has produced 44.8 DraftKings PPG. With both Doncic and Hardy off the court this season, Irving is scoring 1.22 DraftKings PPM, thanks to his usage and assist rates increasing 2.9 and 4.9 percentage points, respectively, via the On/Off Tool.
Irving is vastly underpriced for life without Doncic, and while he will be chalky, Irving will be good to embrace if he suits up.
Roster Beasley with full confidence tonight with Ivey doubtful. Beasley has started in place of Ivey in both the contests he has missed this season and Beasley has been outstanding with the starting job, producing 45.4 DraftKings PPG. In those starts, the wing has seen a 20.1 usage rate and 37.4 regulation minutes per game.
Beasley provides 1.0 DraftKings PPM with Ivey off the floor, and he should surpass 5x value with ease against this league-worst Jazz defense.
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In a dream matchup vs. the Bulls, who rank third in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency, the Celtics boast an absurd 129-point implied team total, which is the largest total the NBA has seen this season. There are certainly blowout concerns, with Boston being a 14.5-point favorite, but if they run away with a win, best believe Tatum will be a huge factor in the victory.
The superstar is scoring 1.5 DraftKings PPM with a 31.1% usage rate this season. For the five instances the Celtics have been double-digit favorites and presented an implied team total of at least 120 points, he has generated 52.9 DraftKings PPG via the Trends Tool. Also, due note that Kristaps Porzingis (heel) is questionable tonight. If he sits, Tatum will receive a boost. With Porzingis off the floor this season, Tatum’s usage has increased to 32.1%.
With Marcus Smart (shoulder) doubtful, LaRavia is a great punt play that could get overlooked for this massive slate. Smart has missed 10 games this season, and LaRavia has scored 26.3 DraftKings points in 26.1 minutes per game with Smart inactive. LaRavia has been very efficient this season, shooting a career-best 49% from the field, and with Smart off the court, LaRavia is generating 0.92 DraftKings PPM.
As for his matchup, the Warriors defense has struggled recently after a hot start, and both Golden State and Memphis rank inside the top 10 in pace. This game’s total is the second-highest on the slate, and the Grizzlies are only favored by 2.5 points. LaRavia should top 20 DraftKings points in this elite setting, and he will become a core play if Ja Morant (questionable, back) joins Smart on the sidelines. With both Morant and Smart off the floor this season, LaRavia’s production increases to 1.0 DraftKings PPM.
With Dennis Schroder now with the Warriors and Cam Thomas (hamstring) still sidelined, Johnson brings awesome upside tonight. With those two high-usage guards off the floor this season, Johnson’s usage has risen 4.0 percentage points to a team-high 25.2%, and he has scored 1.2 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
The Raptors rank sixth in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency, and their defense should be even weaker than usual with Jakob Poetlt (groin) out. Johnson should thrive as the Nets’ main option in this spot and he could get overlooked coming off a few subpar showings.
Washington has been tremendous with Doncic sidelined this season, scoring 44.8 DraftKings PPG (six games). With both Doncic and Hardy off the floor, Washington is leading the Mavericks with 1.3 DraftKings PPM, which is attributed to a 2.5 percentage point boost to his usage rate.
While this is a less-than-ideal matchup vs. the Clippers, Washington is clearly underpriced for Doncic being inactive, and he can be trusted for all formats.
Wembanyama is in a great spot to erupt tonight. The Spurs are hosting the Hawks, and San Antonio will be playing way up in pace. Atlanta ranks second in pace this season, compared to this Spurs team that ranks 24th. This game’s total is set at a high 234.5 points, and San Antonio is only favored by 1.5 points, which is the smallest spread of this slate.
Wembanyama has seen dramatic home/away splits so far during his career, with him scoring 4.3 more DraftKings PPG on his home floor. Plus, for the 10 career home games he has played in that carried a spread of less than three points, Wembanyama has provided 54.5 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
Edey (ankle) made his return from a 10-game absence this past Saturday, and the rookie showed no signs of rust, with a double-double worth 32.5 DraftKings points across 24 minutes off the bench. Now, fellow center Jay Huff (ankle) is out tonight, and as noted above, Smart (shoulder) is doubtful.
Huff’s absence should result in a few extra minutes for Edey, and with both Huff and Smart off the floor, all of Edey’s rates have increased, and he has produced 1.3 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool. Edey opened this season at $6,200 on DraftKings, and at this discounted $4,300 salary, the big man is the No.1 value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections.
