DraftKings’ main slate for Friday features the first eight games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Brunson is a viable target no matter what, facing a Grizzlies team that leads the league in pace, but if Karl-Anthony Towns (questionable, knee) misses his second in a row, Brunson will be a core play for this slate. This matchup with Memphis carries the highest total on the slate (244.5 points), and with Towns inactive Wednesday vs. the 76ers, Brunson went off for 50.75 DraftKings points, bringing his average with Towns out this season up to 46.8 DraftKings PPG (six games).
With Towns off the floor this season, Brunson’s usage increases 4.2 percentage points to 34.2%, and he produces 1.34 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
Nikola Vucevic (doubtful, calf) is expected to remain sidelined tonight, which unlocks Ball as one of the best value plays on the slate. Despite facing a Clippers defense that ranks fourth in efficiency on Wednesday, Ball posted 31.5 DraftKings points in 28.5 minutes with Vucevic inactive. In the 200 minutes Ball has played with Vucevic off the court this season, Ball is scoring 1.1 DraftKings PPM, thanks to a 3.1 percentage point boost to his usage rate, via the On/Off Tool.
In a much friendlier matchup tonight vs. the Raptors, who rank 24th in defensive efficiency, Ball absolutely could eclipse 30 DraftKings points again.
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Mitchell boasts a ridiculous resume against the Celtics. In three matchups with the defending champions this season, Mitchell is averaging 54.6 DraftKings PPG. In fact, the shooting guard has scored over 50 DraftKings points in 10 of his last 11 matchups with Boston. Mitchell clearly gears up for this matchup, and tonight should be no different. This is the fourth and final meeting between the Celtics and Cavaliers this season, and Cleveland needs to win this game in order to tie this season’s matchup at two wins apiece, which is important as Boston chases Cleveland for the top seed in the Eastern Conference.
Mitchell is way too cheap for his upside, and he should be low owned in GPPs coming off a quiet 21.75 DraftKings point outing vs. the Magic.
With eight wins in a row, the Pistons are tied for the longest winning streak in the NBA, and they are on the heels of an impressive 20-point rout over the Celtics on Wednesday. Detroit was extremely motivated for this contest, and they should once again be highly motivated tonight with the Nuggets in town. Beasley was the Pistons’ best player in that blowout over Boston, lighting the defending champions up for 42.25 DraftKings points off the bench. The veteran has now scored over 40 DraftKings points in two of his last three games, and Beasley is amassing 28.9 DraftKings PPG with Jaden Ivey inactive (out, leg) this season.
Denver ranks 22nd in defensive efficiency, and they are on the second night of a back-to-back after losing to the Bucks last night. The Nuggets are the team that drafted Beasley, and he should exceed five times value against his former club.
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Murphy has been frustrating with less than 40 DraftKings points in four of his past six, but we have to go back to the wing tonight if the Pelicans rest Zion Williamson as expected. The forward erupted for a triple-double in 31 minutes in last night’s win over the Suns and likely will be out for tonight’s rematch with Phoenix, as Williamson has only played in both legs of a back-to-back set once this season.
If Williamson is inactive, Murphy’s role will grow to new heights, and he will have great upside against this terrible Suns defense that ranks dead last in rating over their last 10 games. Brandon Ingram is now with the Raptors, Dejounte Murray (Achilles) is out for the season, and in the two starts Murphy has made without Ingram, Murray, and Williamson, Murphy is leading New Orleans with 44.4 DraftKings PPG.
LeVert has been great as the Hawks’ sixth man since being traded to the club, which was the role left behind by De’Andre Hunter, who LeVert was traded for. In his first seven games with Atlanta, LeVert is supplying 25.9 DraftKings points in 27.9 minutes per game with a 19.3% usage rate. The wing has scored at least 25 DraftKings points in four of his last six, and while this looks like a brutal matchup at first glance, the Thunder have been struggling on that side of the ball recently, ranking 21st in defensive rating since the All-Star break.
Nonetheless, LeVert is too cheap for his current role no matter the matchup, and he is rated as the No. 1 value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections.
Tatum is averaging 55.2 DraftKings PPG in three matchups with the Cavaliers this season, and he will be a no-brainer if Jaylen Brown (questionable, thigh) is out tonight. The All-Star is handling a huge 29% usage rate this season, and when Brown sits, Tatum naturally sees his already huge growth even further.
With Brown inactive this season, Tatum’s usage increased 3.7 percentage points to 34.3%, and he is scoring 52.3 DraftKings PPG (nine games), via the On/Off Tool.
If Bol remains a starter for the third game in a row, he will be unavoidable at this cheap price tag. As a starter for the last two, Bol has finished with 39 DraftKings points vs. the Grizzlies and then 29 DraftKings points vs. the Pelicans last night, who he will face again this evening. Bol has seen at least 28 minutes of work in these two starts, and that number could be even higher tonight if the Suns rest any of their veterans with this being the second leg of a back-to-back set.
This season, Bol is providing 1.1 DraftKings PPM, and he is averaging 35.3 DraftKings PPG for the six times he has logged over 20 minutes. The Pelicans rank third-to-last in defensive efficiency, and Bol will destroy his cheap salary if he continues to start.
Jokic posted a huge 69-DraftKings point triple-double last night vs. the Bucks, and we shouldn’t be concerned about this being the big man’s second game in two nights. Jokic has been incredible on the second leg of back-to-backs this season, scoring 70.8 DraftKings PPG (nine games).
The center has scored over 60 DraftKings in all but one of these nine contests, and he has erupted for over 80 DraftKings points in three of these games. Jokic is leading the NBA with an absurd 1.9 DraftKings PPM this season, and while the Pistons have been playing great defense—they rank third in defensive rating over their last 10—Jokic is matchup-proof, and he shouldn’t be highly owned in this spot.
While Collins is going to be chalky, he is good chalk to embrace and needs to be one of your core plays. Vucevic is expected to be out again, and as his replacement starter for the last two, Collins has scored 30.75 DraftKings vs. the 76ers, and then he exploded for 57.75 DraftKings in a tough matchup vs. the Clippers. Collins only saw 27 minutes against the 76ers due to the game being a huge 32-point blowout, but in a game that was only decided by five points against Los Angeles, Collins led Chicago with 38.1 minutes, and he saw a 21.1% usage rate.
Collins is a very underrated, versatile big man that is scoring 1.0 DraftKings PPM this season. The ex-Spur is the best player the Bulls received in the Zach LaVine trade last month, and Collins should see huge minutes tonight with this matchup vs. the Raptors carrying a tight 1.5-point spread. While we can’t expect another showing near 60 DraftKings points, Collins brings great upside relative to his $5,500 salary against this Raptors defense that ranks 24th in efficiency.
