Sean Barnard breaks down his top player prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s NBA betting card.
The first Friday of the NBA season has arrived and with it comes a 10-game slate jam-packed with action. There are plenty of key matchups to keep an eye on and lots of value on the betting board.
Only two games hold a spread of 11+ points with just one matchup falling below 3.5 on the spread. There will be a playoff rematch between the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers, a Western Conference matchup between the Lakers and Suns, and several other intriguing games.
While you can check out each matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook, here are my five favorite player props on the October 25th slate.
The Orlando Magic made a strong statement to start the season by defeating the Miami Heat 116-97. Paolo Banchero was at the heart of this producing 33 points, 11 rebounds, and three assists in just 31 minutes of action. The Magic will now face off against the Brooklyn Nets which will provide Banchero with an opportunity for a similar statistical output.
Banchero earned Rookie of the Year honors in the 2022-23 season and made the All-Star team last year. There is a high bar to clear for him to take the next step, but expect this to be just the case. Banchero seems to be making a conscious effort to utilize his physicality and punish opposing teams every time a smaller defender is matched up with him. He also knocked down four of his eight three-point attempts in the opening game which is a nice sign after his three-point percentage went from 29.8% as a rookie to 33.9% last year.
Brooklyn lacks the personnel to match up with the 6-foot-10 forward and likely will give two-time All-Defensive team member Ben Simmons the first chance at the matchup. While Simmons stands up from a size standpoint, he looks a shell of himself athletically after playing just 57 total games over the past three seasons. Expect Banchero to be in attack mode from the opening tip and make his presence known in the stat sheet. Feel confident he will eclipse 40+ combined points, rebounds, and assists and be at the core of Orlando’s success in this matchup.
The New York Knicks are set to face off with the Indiana Pacers in a playoff rematch after the Pacers sent them packing in round two of the playoffs this past year. While injuries depleted the Knicks’ roster, their lack of offensive creators was evident during this series. This is a large reason why Karl-Anthony Towns was brought in this offseason and he will have the opportunity to showcase his impact in this matchup.
The debut of the former Minnesota Timberwolves star did not have a chance to live up to expectations due to the blowout loss to the Celtics. Towns was limited to just 24 minutes in which he produced 12 points, seven rebounds, and three assists. Expect his second showing on the floor with the Knicks to look a little different as they face off with the Pacers.
While they play different styles of basketball, just last year Julius Randle produced 24.0 points, 9.2 rebounds, and five assists per game. While it may look different, these 38.2 combined points, rebounds, and assists are what Towns was brought in to replace and hopefully surpass. Expect the Knicks to put the two-man game of Towns and Jalen Brunson to be on full display and for his impact on the stat sheet to be clear.
Injuries have already become the story of the season for the Philadelphia 76ers. Paul George suffered a hyperextended knee in preseason which continues to keep him out and Joel Embiid has yet to participate in any 5-on-5 action for the Sixers which has led to an NBA investigation regarding the situation. In the meantime, the Sixers dropped their first game against the Milwaukee Bucks and will be searching for their first win as they face the Toronto Raptors.
While his role will shrink when the two aging stars return to the court, Tyrese Maxey is at the center of just about everything the Sixers will look to do offensively for now. While he struggled in the season-opener, it was not for lack of effort. Maxey ended with 25 points and six rebounds on 10-31 shooting from the field. Gary Trent Jr provided some tough defense on the perimeter and Maxey became increasingly frustrated with the lack of whistles when attacking the basket as the game went on.
In the second game of the season with a less intimidating defense in front of him, expect Maxey to improve his efficiency and production. He recorded 30 or more points in 22 of 70 games he played last season and has done so 36 times already in his career. Expect Maxey to return to form and have a successful performance in Nick Nurse’s third trip back to Toronto since taking over as the Sixers head coach.
While DraftKings does not over an over/under for technical fouls or potential fights, expect Dillon Brooks to be involved in this matchup. The spunky shooting guards will face his former team in what will feel like the first true matchup with the team as they were so depleted with injuries throughout last season.
While sometimes Brooks’ antics overshadow his on-court play, the Oregon product is still a high-level basketball player when he is in the right role. In his first season with the Rockets last year, Brooks averaged 12.7 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.7 assists. He also produced as many as 18.4 points per game during his peak time with the Grizzlies. While there is more competition for minutes than last season on the Houston Rockets, Brooks still saw 31 minutes of action in the season opener. The talented young players will eventually take over some of these minutes, but expect this to be a process that slowly develops over the season as Houston forces their draft picks to earn the opportunity.
In the meantime, count on Brooks to show up ready for this matchup. Brooks shot just 1-6 and 1-3 on three-point attempts in the opening game but is a 34.5% three-point shooter throughout his career. Expect him to be in the middle of everything in this game for better or for worse and for Brooks to record 15+ combined points, rebounds, and assists. It is difficult to quantify the impact of a revenge game but expect the claim that he would not be back “under any circumstances” to still be present in his head.
The Los Angeles Lakers were one of the biggest winners of the opening few nights of basketball. They defeated the Timberwolves 110-103 in which JJ Redick’s new-look offense shined. There was more off-ball motion, and an increase in cutting, and perhaps most notably- Anthony Davis was at the epicenter of everything.
In his 38 minutes of game action, Davis tallied 36 points, 16 rebounds, and four assists. He was everywhere on both sides of the floor and was the best player in the matchup by a comfortable margin. While Davis will not be able to maintain this on an every-night basis, his importance to the offense is a legitimate takeaway. Redick looks more willing to trust Davis as a passer and the nine-time All-Star has the freedom to attack whenever the opportunity presents itself.
As the Lakers face off with the Suns, expect Davis to be in attack mode once again. Jusuf Nurkic will be tasked with the matchup and this is not one he should be excited for. Expect more free-flowing offense from the Lakers and for Davis to remain at the heart of what the Lakers do offensively. Jump on the over of 42.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists, and keep an eye on Davis’ production on a nightly basis as we begin crowning the MVP candidates.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
