Included in this betting preview:
After stealing the first two games of the 2024 Western Conference Finals, the Mavericks host the Timberwolves looking to take a commanding 3-0 lead on Sunday (8 p.m. ET, TNT, Sling). Sporting News’ betting team has identified multiple high-value wagers on BetMGM worth making ahead of the action.
The Luka Doncic magic has been strong early on in this series. Doncic scored 33 points and made some key defensive plays in Game 1, then dropped 32 including the game-winning three in Game 2. The Slovenian star may have come up short in the league MVP race, but he seems like a lock to win Western Conference Finals MVP if the Mavs can close the series out with two more wins.
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The Wolves now face a dire situation down 2-0 going on the road trying to extend the series. The Mavericks are getting -160 odds to win Game 3 and -550 odds to advance to the NBA Finals. So, how do we proceed as bettors?
As always, the Sporting News best bets are guided by value and reinforced by stats and trends. Let’s get to the top BetMGM value bets for Game 3 of the Mavs vs. Wolves series, including the best spread, over/under, and player prop wagers.
It’s time for the Timberwolves to put up or shut up because a loss in Game 3 would cement Minnesota’s fate.
Let’s face it — Dallas hasn’t won either Western Conference Finals game handily. Anthony Edwards has shot 11-of-33 in the series, KAT is 10-of-36 and DPOY Rudy Gobert has been getting cooked on high screen-and-rolls — and yet the Mavs have only defeated the Wolves by an average of two points.
What if Ant-Man shows up tonight? What if KAT doesn’t shoot like he’s Sandra Bullock in Bird Box? What if Jaden McDaniels, who scored 20-plus points in three straight games and then went into the playoff witness protection program in Game 2, returns to relevance?
It’s time for Minnesota to put all its chips on the table. Force someone else besides Luka to hit big shots. Make Kyrie Irving expend more energy on the defensive end. Utilize height and stop letting Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively rack up the easiest lobs of the last decade.
Remember: the Wolves have won six of their seven road games this postseason. The pressure doesn’t seem to get to them — in fact, they might feed off it. With that much of a track record of success and two straight hard-fought losses in this series, how can anyone in their right mind bet Minnesota to lay down and blow this one?
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Wolves 107, Mavericks 105 — Minnesota wins (+130) and covers the +3.5 spread (-110), and the game finishes well OVER the projected total of 208.5 (-110).
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Sporting News’ best bets columns have been all over the OVER in this series, and the strategy has paid off so far. These squads are playing at a fast pace, Rudy Gobert and company look far less stifling and the threes are flying early and often.
The Wolves should be as aggressive as ever in Game 3, leaving it all on the floor. As mentioned in the ATS pick write-up, Minnesota won’t just lay down and accept defeat. This is a squad that goes out swinging — and with Naz Reid as hot as he has been, all he needs is one or two other key players to warm up alongside him.
The Wolves have faced Dallas six times since the start of the 2023-24 NBA season, averaging 113.2 points per game across those six contests. Game 2 was tight, but we hit on the full-game OVER (207.5) and Minnesota’s team OVER (105.5) when all was said and done, despite Ant and KAT combining to shoot 21-of-69. Watch them get it going in Game 3 and make this series a bit more interesting.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Wolves 107, Mavericks 105 — Minnesota wins (+130) and covers the +3.5 spread (-110), and the game finishes well OVER the projected total of 208.5 (-110).
Nasty Naz has been incredible this series, justifying his Sixth Man of the Year award to the NBA universe. Forget KAT — it’s Naz that now looks like the best-shooting big man in the world.
The man has increased his usage and scoring production in each of the past three games, culminating in a 23-point Game 3 that left many wondering why he didn’t attempt more than 13 total shots. The dude finished 7-of-9 from three and 8-of-13 from the floor, for crying out loud!
Whether it’s hobbled head coach Chris Finch or nervous-nelly assistant coach-turned-interim head coach Micah Nori, the Wolves have to know they need to give Naz a bigger offensive role if they have any chance of advancing to the Finals. Look for Reid to score in the 20s once again on Sunday evening.
All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
| Game | Time | Moneyline | Spread | O/U |
| Mavs @ Wolves |
8:00 pm (ESPN) |
DAL -160; MIN +130 |
DAL -3.5 (-110) |
208.5 |
