The Texans ascended quickly this past season in the first season of DeMeco Ryans at head coach and C.J. Stroud under center. Houston finished 10-7, won the AFC South and advanced to the AFC divisional round.
Rather than rest on the laurels of 2023, general manager Nick Caserio looked to maximize the Texans’ contention window with a flurry of offseason moves. He traded for two offensive starters in receiver Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon and signed high-impact starters like edge rusher Danielle Hunter and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair.
There is no guarantee the Texans will repeat as divisional champions, but the underlying metrics point to an upward trajectory for Houston. Their division got a bit stronger overall but the Texans proved to be one of the better teams this past season and didn’t lose enough to warrant a decline in 2024.
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ESPN agreed and ranked the Texans as one of the ten best teams in the league using their Football Power Index. According to ESPN, the FPI “is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”
Here’s where Houston ranked on ESPN’s Football Power Index.
The Texans ranked ninth in ESPN’s FPI ahead of the 2024 season with a 3.0. This means ESPN’s analytics believes Houston will win three more games than the average NFL team this season. For reference, the 49ers and Chiefs ranked No. 1 and No. 2 with a 5.1 and 5.0, respectively.
Broken down further, ESPN gave the Texans’ offense a 2.2 FPI, the defense a 0.6 and the special teams a 0.2. The offensive and defensive marks both ranked ninth, while the special teams tied for second.
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This assessment makes sense. Stroud is among the best quarterbacks in the league already and the Texans have arguably the best receiving trio in the NFL with Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell. The defense is good but has its issues — especially in the secondary. Special teams have been the Texans’ mainstay since coordinator Frank Ross was hired.
Houston is poised to take another leap if this metric is to be believed. Oddly enough, the Texans ranked 17th by the end of the 2023 season despite their postseason finish.
There is a lot of hype surrounding this Texans team following a big 2024 offseason. The analytics support this claim but now its up to the the team to live up to the expectations.
