• Denzel Perryman is set to play a full-time role in 2024 but isn’t being drafted like it: While injuries have derailed his past two seasons, Perryman has a chance to return to the tackling machine that he was in 2021 if he can stay on the field.
• A new season often brings renewed hope for Marcus Davenport: Whether he can deliver on that hope or not remains to be seen, but his cost in drafts makes the potential reward well worth the minimal risk.
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There is often plenty of value in the later rounds of fantasy drafts, especially in IDP leagues where a lot of the lesser-known defensive players can get overlooked. This list will highlight some of the more enticing fantasy options to target going beyond the top-120 IDPs, according to ADP collected by The IDP Show. Some of these players should be on the rise to those paying attention, so get in on them at a discount while you still can.
The 49ers lost one of their starting linebackers in the Super Bowl back in February with Dre Greenlaw tearing his Achilles tendon, leaving a gaping hole next to three-time All-Pro Fred Warner. The 49ers brought in Campbell to seemingly fill that gap this season while Greenlaw misses time, which might not even be in the regular season considering the typical recovery time.
Even if Greenlaw returned early, it’s unlikely that he’d step into a full-time role right away, which just buys more time for Campbell as a full-time starter. Campbell has had an injury history of his own the past couple of seasons, but when he’s been healthy as a full-time player, he’s been a relevant IDP on those weeks.
The 49ers have consistently used two full-time linebackers in the past and should be in line to do the same, even with Campbell replacing Greenlaw for the time being. Campbell had previously been losing snaps to former first-round pick Quay Walker in Green Bay but should be a safer fit in this 49ers scheme, creating a really strong value for a player who is being drafted beyond the top 50 at this position.
With Campbell out of the picture in Green Bay, it opens up a spot for McDuffie to step into a starting role, even with the team spending a second-round pick on rookie Edgerrin Cooper in this year’s draft. Cooper has missed time in camp and hasn’t been available for preseason games — he only just returned this past week. Much like with Junior Colson in Los Angeles, regardless of draft capital, missed time in camp is often going to push players down the depth chart, especially inexperienced rookies.
McDuffie performed admirably in his spot starts last season filling in for both Campbell and Quay Walker when they missed time, which gave him some much-needed NFL experience and showcased reliability that the coaching staff can lean on. McDuffie should at the very least start the year as one of the Packers starting linebackers, even if it isn’t a full-time role under new defensive coordinator Jeff Haffley, who happens to have familiarity with McDuffie from his time at Boston College.
This LB60 ADP is a significant value to take advantage of where drafters have fallen in love with Cooper’s rookie draft capital while underestimating McDuffie’s staying power. NFL teams constantly show us how much they value experience over rookies, which is one of the key advantages that McDuffie has going for him over Cooper at the moment. He was also the clear starter next to Walker in the team’s first preseason game.
Speaking of veteran leadership and experience being favored over rookies, the Chargers really offer two potential IDP values between Perryman and Daiyan Henley (LB58 in ADP), though he isn’t as strong of a guarantee for snaps as Perryman, assuming health. Perryman made one appearance this preseason, wearing the green dot and playing 100% of the available snaps with the starters, which included Henley. Chargers third-round pick Junior Colson has missed time due to an appendix surgery and only returned in time to play the third preseason game with the backups.
Perryman, much like De’Vondre Campbell, has seen his value decrease over the last two seasons by not being a full-time player and missing time due to injuries. However, if he’s going to be healthy this season, it doesn’t appear that he’s in significant danger of losing snaps right now, especially considering that he’s been chosen to help lead the defense on the field by wearing the green dot and communicating plays to his teammates.
Perryman also led the linebacker position in tackles versus expected back in 2021, which highlighted his ability to make the most of his situation and be an IDP starter we can trust, though he’ll have to bounce back from the past two seasons where he’s missed time. Either way, he comes at such a low cost that the risk is minimal and the ceiling is much higher than others going in the same range.
Dodson, a former undrafted free agent, surpassed his career-long defensive snap total heading into last year (471) by playing 550 defensive snaps in 2023. This mostly came out of necessity, as the Bills dealt with the loss of starter Matt Milano for most of the season. Dodson shined on his opportunities, earning top-five marks in PFF overall grade (89.5) and coverage grade (86.8) while earning the 12th-best run-defense grade (82.6) for his position.
Dodson’s performance in 2023 was enough to earn a one-year deal with the linebacker-needy Seahawks, who saw long-time starters Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks depart in free agency. Both players accounted for nearly 2,000 defensive snaps in 2023 alone, leaving a significant hole to fill in the middle of the defense. Jerome Baker also joins Seattle on a one-year deal and is currently injured, but when healthy, the two new acquisitions are clearly the primary starters in 2024.
As a result, Dodson should easily surpass his previous season’s career high in snaps, which ultimately should come with startable IDP production and lead to more value than where he’s being drafted. New defensive coordinator Aden Durde has deployed two full-time players on all but one drive so far this preseason, which isn’t a perfect indication that this will continue into the regular season, but there is at least not a concerning rotation at the moment that would potentially hurt Dodson’s value.
Britt had not cracked 50 defensive snaps in either of his first two NFL seasons, and he hit only 160 in 2023. His inexperience as a fourth-year player is a big part of why his ADP is so low, especially for someone expected to step into a full-time role. In a world where opportunity for snaps is often all that matters when it comes to the linebacker position, Britt is primed for an ideal role heading into this season.
The Buccaneers let Devin White, a five-year starter who averaged more than 900 defensive snaps played per season, walk in free agency this offseason, leaving a gaping hole next to locked-in starter Lavonte David. Tampa Bay also did nothing in free agency or the draft to address the position, which should lead us all to believe that the front office is comfortable relying on Britt for that significant workload this coming season.
That confidence likely comes after Britt filled in admirably for White late last year. And even when White returned, the team relied more on Britt than their former fifth-overall pick, including the playoffs, where Britt out-snapped White in each game and 92 to 40 overall.
Head coach Todd Bowles has said he believes Britt is capable of an every-down role, and through the preseason, albeit without David, that is how the Buccaneers have deployed him, and should lead to a productive IDP season.
Browning is a converted off-ball linebacker who has made a career shift to the edge for the first time these past two seasons. Browning quickly earned his way into a starting job last season after returning from injury in Week 7. He averaged a strong 68% of the Broncos’ defensive snaps the rest of the way.
He’s once again looking like a threat to potentially surpass that snap share this season, after he emerged as one of the clear starters on the defensive line with Jonathon Cooper. Browning led all Broncos defensive linemen in pass-rush grade last season (74.7), delivering 4.5 sacks and a strong 15.1% pressure rate (tied for 26th). Considering his inexperience at the position, he’s already looked better than the average of his peers, showing promise heading into Year 3 as an edge defender that he can potentially even improve.
Browning has played 93% of the possible starting snaps this preseason, along with Cooper (96%), which is a strong sign for a team without many obvious depth options that they will be relying on him heavily in the regular season as well. If Browning can just maintain his pass-rush metrics from a season ago, on a potentially much larger snap share, he’ll be well worth his current evaluation of ED58, according to the ADP.
Armstrong has spent the entirety of his career to this point in Dallas and playing behind top players at his position like Demarcus Lawrence, Robert Quinn, Aldon Smith in addition to most recently Micah Parsons, Armstrong now joins the Washington Commanders, where no such competition exists. Both he and Dante Fowler reunite with head coach Dan Quinn and immediately become the most tenured and proven NFL veterans on the team. Armstrong, specifically, gets an excellent shot at setting new career highs in playing time and overall production.
Armstrong, who has never cracked the top 50 at his position in overall snaps during his career, should be well within range to do so in 2024 with his new team, which opens a whole new door for potential IDP production and gives him a chance to exceed his previous seasons where he ranked outside the top-60 in points per game.
Armstrong reached new career highs in his pass-rush metrics in 2023, including a 70.1 pass-rush grade, 13.0% pressure rate and 12.2% win rate. Continuing that level of play alone on a larger workload should allow for him to produce similar results in the sack column, if not exceed his 7.5 from last season. As a tackler, Armstrong proved to be among the better players at his position in that regard last season as well, ranking among the top 80th percentile in tackles versus expected despite playing fewer run defense snaps than 83% of the other players in that range. Armstrong’s larger expected role on run downs, specifically, should push him from well outside the top-50 IDP scorers at his position to potentially within the top-36 in 2024.
With Aidan Hutchinson the very clear favorite defensive lineman in Detroit, there is a starting spot across from him at the other edge position, where Davenport looks to be the clear favorite for that role. Neither Hutchinson nor Davenport played a snap this preseason, which has been the case with almost all of the Lions’ expected starters on both sides of the ball.
Davenport, like many names on this list, has been held back in terms of his overall IDP potential due to injuries over the past few seasons that have kept him from exceeding 500 defensive snaps in any of the past four years. Interestingly, over the past three seasons, Davenport’s pass-rush metrics have been encouraging where we could expect him to be valuable as long as he’s on the field. Since 2021, among edge defenders with at least 500 pass-rush snaps, Davenport ranks 12th in win rate (16.8%) and 25th in pressure rate (13.7%) – one spot behind Hutchinson in both categories.
Davenport getting more usage on early downs, without there being any other obvious options to do so on the roster, would also be a significant boost to his potential production floor as he could add some tackling ability to his appeal. IDP managers have almost entirely lost faith in the former first-round pick, as indicated by his ADP, but even with injury concerns, there isn’t much risk in targeting him where he’s currently going in drafts.
