• Wide receivers are set to dominate the early portion of fantasy drafts: Led by CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill, there are some great options to target as the first picks for fantasy managers.
• 20 rookies inside the top 100: With Marvin Harrison Jr. being the clear top choice, see where the rest of the 2024 rookie class lands as they enter their first NFL seasons.
• Get a head start on fantasy football: Use PFF’s fantasy football mock draft simulator to create real live mock draft simulations to get ready for your live draft!
Estimated Reading Time: 13 minutes
Breaking fantasy football rankings down into tiers helps fantasy managers better understand what separates each group and how to value each player at the position for this coming season.
These five wide receivers are more than likely going to get drafted within the first half of the first round in most fantasy drafts this offseason. CeeDee Lamb led the position in targets (179) last season at just 25 years old and will be a threat to do so once again as Dak Prescott’s primary target in the Cowboys offense.
Tyreek Hill was the most efficient wide receiver in the league last season, posting 23.8 PPR points per game, just slightly ahead of Lamb. Hill is entering his ninth season in the league at 30 years old, however, he’s set and tied his career-high in targets (167) in each of the past two seasons. He’s also posted the two best yardage totals and receiving grades in his career in back-to-back seasons with the Dolphins, showing no signs of slowing down, and keeping him locked in as an elite fantasy option.
Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown all have an argument to be WR3 in rankings this season, and considering this top tier as a whole is as close as it is, fantasy managers can approach them however they want. There is easily 150-plus target potential for everyone in this top tier and they all have the talent to make the most out of those targets in 2024 as the very best at their position. Jefferson, arguably, has the biggest question at quarterback of this group with rookie J.J. McCarthy coming in, but considering his status as one of, if not the best, wide receiver in the league, we can still project him as a top-five option again this year.
Tier 2 also consists of a small group of wide receivers who could all push for a WR1 overall finish this season based on the number of projected targets alone. Between A.J. Brown and Davante Adams, fantasy managers will have two reliable and consistent veteran wide receivers who have finished as top-12 wide receivers in each of the past two seasons. Brown finished inside the top-five in each, and Adams finished top-three in each of the three seasons prior to last (WR11).
Puka Nacua emerged as a high-end option in his rookie season last year and is a strong bet to keep that elite production going once again in 2024, even if there is some slight regression expected. Nacua’s 0.26 targets per route run was among the best at his position last year, as was his 2.59 yards per route run (eighth). He has taken over the WR1 role from 2021 fantasy WR1 Cooper Kupp in this Rams offense, and there’s no looking back now.
Garrett Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. are the biggest, and riskiest, projections inside the top-10 wide receiver rankings. For Wilson, his talent is undeniable, but he’s been plagued with quarterback issues since entering the league. Last season, he ranked fourth in total targets (163) with only 67.5% of those targets being deemed catchable, which ranked 111th at his position. While Aaron Rodgers is a significant upgrade at quarterback for Wilson, there is still risk involved with Rodgers at 40 years old and coming off a torn Achilles. Assuming health for Rodgers, Wilson has that top-10 wide receiver potential, as long as fantasy managers are able to live with the risk at quarterback.
Harrison Jr. is a relative unknown coming in as a rookie in the NFL, but as one of the best wide receiver prospects in recent years while being tied to an above-average quarterback in Kyler Murray, he should have no trouble hitting the ground running in Year 1. Suppose Harrison Jr. is what most fantasy managers believe him to be. In that case, 150 targets are within his realm of possibilities as a rookie, which projects him among the top-12 fantasy options at his position.
Mike Evans leads this group. Despite being 31 years old when the season kicks off, he’s shown no signs of decline and is coming off one of his most productive seasons ever. He delivered his highest receiving yard total (1,255) since 2018 along with his best receiving grade (83.2) since 2019. Evans also dominated against single coverage, which also highlights his lack of decline, as he posted a 93.3 receiving grade and 5.77 yards per route run that both ranked top-five at his position. He’s finished as a top-12 PPR wide receiver in back-to-back seasons with two different quarterbacks, and his chemistry with Baker Mayfield puts him back in that contention for another season after commanding 127 targets last season — also his best mark since 2018.
Most of this group either has to replicate what they did last season or increase their points per game totals slightly to sneak inside the top 12 at the position in 2024. For those that only need to keep doing what they’ve been doing, along with Evans, it’s Chris Olave, Brandon Aiyuk, Nico Collins, DJ Moore, Deebo Samuel, Stefon Diggs and Michael Pittman, who were all within that top 12 in points per game last season. Moore now has more target competition with Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze joining the team, but he’s still (slightly) the best bet to lead the team. Collins and Diggs are also each other’s target competition now but thanks to a high-powered passing offense led by C.J. Stroud, they should each maintain their strong levels of play from last season, with a slight edge to Collins due to age and familiarity with the offense.
Jaylen Waddle, much like Evans, is a player in this tier that I will be higher on than consensus. After diving into his production last season, he stands out as a clear candidate for arguably his best season yet. Waddle ran just 385 routes (67th among wide receivers) last season due to injury yet produced a top-12 mark in fantasy points per route run (0.52), tied with Justin Jefferson and Keenan Allen. He also posted the best yards per route run (2.63), receiving grade (90.9), and offensive grade (90.7) marks of his career — all of which were top-10 at his position.
The bigger projection in this range is Drake London, who did not crack the top-24 PPR wide receivers last season but does get a significant upgrade at quarterback with Kirk Cousins coming in and a potentially more wide receiver-friendly offense under Raheem Morris. London is a talented young wide receiver heading into Year 3, who has yet to crack 11.0 PPR points per game through his first two years in the league despite ranking 15th among qualifying wide receivers in receiving grade (86.1) over that span. The upgrade at quarterback should be just what London needs to push for, not just a top-24 PPR finish for the first time in his career, but a top-12 finish right there for the taking as well.
The majority of this tier consists of either team’s second-best receiving option, or the top option on a team with slightly less potential as the WR1s ahead of them due to their offenses or quarterback play. The top options where quarterback play likely hurt their overall potential the most include Malik Nabers, Amari Cooper and George Pickens. All three players come into this season with quarterbacks who graded outside of the top 20 at their position in 2023.
Other top options like Zay Flowers, DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk could have more target competition on a weekly basis. Hopkins’ elite target-earning ability is what keeps him in this range. He put up over 1,000 receiving yards and finished as the PPR WR24 last season with a struggling Ryan Tannehill and rookie Will Levis throwing him the ball.
The best second wide receivers in the league exist in this tier with DeVonta Smith, Keenan Allen, Tee Higgins and Cooper Kupp. Tank Dell can also be included here, more likely as the third option on his team, but on a team that was one of the best passing offenses in the league last season and should allow him to lead the team in receiving production on any given week as a result.
There are still some really strong candidates to outperform their ranking within this fifth tier, and it speaks to the strength and depth of the position, as any player in this tier who isn’t able to accomplish double-digit fantasy points per game this season could be considered a disappointment.
There are some question marks regarding some players like Rashee Rice, for example, who is only this low due to having what is estimated to be a four-game suspension looming. Rice emerged as a rookie last season to be the top wide receiver on the team and if not for the two separate off-field issues this year, he’d be much higher on this list. As a result, first-round rookie Xavier Worthy, as well as new acquisition and former first-rounder Marquise Brown, exist in this same tier, betting on the passing potential of the Kansas City Chiefs offense for higher upside to target from that wide receiver corps, specifically.
Several young wide receivers will have the chance to ascend to the next level this season, including Jordan Addison, Jayden Reed, Ladd McConkey, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rome Odunze and Khalil Shakir. The rookies, McConkey and Odunze, are naturally going to be more difficult projections without NFL experience, but as highly-drafted wide receivers with good quarterbacks, they offer a lot of upside if they can emerge as consistent fixtures in their respective offenses on a weekly basis.
Two Seattle Seahawks wide receivers, Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett are in this tier, with Smith-Njigba getting the bump as expected WR2 in Seattle. Lockett is entering his 10th NFL season and did show signs of decline last season, posting his lowest receiving grade (77.6), catch percentage (67.5%), yardage total (894) and touchdown total (five) since 2017. Smith-Njigba, as a 2023 first-round pick, was expected to take a back seat in the offense last year, but still emerged as a consistent option, earning 90 targets on the year and posting the eighth-most receiving yards among rookie wide receivers (628) despite recording the second-lowest ADoT (6.4 yards) of the group. A potentially new-look offense should help unleash Smith-Njigba downfield a lot more and away from his 25.5% screen target rate, which kept his yardage totals in check last season on top of playing third wheel in the offense.
This is the tier where the options feel a lot less safe for fantasy, but there is a world where upside comes to fruition and any one or more of these players can greatly outperform their current stock in these rankings.
Keon Coleman, Brian Thomas Jr. and Adonai Mitchell are the lone rookies in this tier as all have a lot of upside but are less-developed wide receivers coming out of college who are not guaranteed to hit the ground running in the NFL. Taking a shot on one of them is fine, but understanding that there is likely to be a lot more boom/bust with their game in Year 1.
Outside of the rookies, some personal favorites in this tier, as in players who are ranked higher here versus consensus, include Wan’Dale Robinson, Demarcus Robinson and Kendrick Bourne. Each of these three players posted at least 7.5 PPR points per game last season, earned at least a 19% target rate and delivered over 1.10 yards per route run, which no other player in this tier was able to accomplish. They at least offer some reliability as players who should have consistent roles in their respective offenses, even if not with overly exciting ceilings.
The final tier is the deepest sleeper territory with low success rate options that could emerge for at least a stint of fantasy relevance this season. Ricky Pearsall has the best shot to jump way up these rankings should the San Francisco 49ers actually end up trading one of either Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel, but as of right now, his WR63 ADP is still a bit too high considering he’ll be the fourth option at best in a run-first offense. Should the depth chart shift this offseason then maybe he can deliver on that ADP, but for now, he’s more of a dynasty asset than a redraft one.
