Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the top-seeded Celtics and the No. 6 seed Pacers. This game will be in Boston, where the Celtics were 37-4 during the regular season and were 4-2 in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Both losses came in Game 2 of each series. Indiana was 21-20 on the road during the regular season and 2-5 in the first two rounds of the playoffs. These teams met five times during the regular season, with Boston posting a 3-2 record. Both losses were in Indiana.
During these playoffs, the Pacers are first in offensive rating while the Celtics are second. Boston is third in defensive rating while Indiana is 13th. The Pacers are ninth in pace while the Celtics are dead-last.
DraftKings Sportsbook has BOS -10 over IND at home. The total is 221.5. Kristaps Porzingis is out. Xavier Tillman ($2,000 Showdown) is questionable. Keep track of injury updates at DK Live.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $500K Shootaround [$100K to 1st] (IND vs BOS)
Jayson Tatum ($16,800 CP): Tatum has the highest projection by a wide margin, and finding decent value isn’t too difficult to fit him in. The usage rate hasn’t been the most consistent during this playoff run, as it’s been as low as 21 percent and as high as 39.7 percent. Many of the lower usage rate games were blowouts, though. While this game could turn into a laugher, as DK Sportsbook has Boston favored by 10 points and Indiana hasn’t been great on the road, they have positive momentum coming into this series and they play relatively fast, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Tatum to provide those fantasy goodies. In four regular season games against Indiana, Tatum put up at least 50 DKFP in all with a high of 68.75. Boston won 155-104 in one of those contests, so if this game is a blowout, Tatum will have likely been a big reason why.
TJ McConnell ($9,000 CP): If going with a cheaper option, McConnell is my huckleberry. The range of outcomes is wide, as he could play in the teens and put up 15 DKFP. While he will never play 30 minutes, there are scenarios in which he plays around 25 minutes and puts up 40 DKFP. As mentioned in the Tatum section, there is a chance that this game turns into a blowout for Indiana, which would likely provide McConnell with more playing time. McConnell allows for more salary to be allocated to the UTIL slots and, if he hits a ceiling outcome, could vault one to the promised land.
Derrick White ($8,000): White won’t garner a high usage rate. Those honors go to Tatum and Brown for the Celtics. What White does, though, is contribute a little something something in every category. He will likely end up in the high-20 to 30 DKFP range, but it’s not out of the question that he will put up 40 to 50 DKFP if everything breaks right.
Aaron Nesmith ($5,000): Nesmith is a low-usage player who is primarily out there for his defense. Barring foul trouble or injury, Nesmith is one of the few in the price range who will likely play at least 30 minutes. He will probably only score in the 20 DKFP range, but he did put up 57 DKFP against the Celtics during the regular season, going for 26 points, 12 rebounds, seven assists and a block.
Andrew Nembhard ($5,400): Nembhard has provided defense and become a complementary offensive hub for the Pacers. He can hit the open J, slash to the open spots when teams double of play zone and navigate ball screen actions when called upon. While he has put up 20 points a few times in these playoffs, he will more than likely score around 10 points while providing some boards, assists and defensive stats. More importantly, he will likely play around 30 minutes. In the last two games of the New York series, Nembhard contributed 35 and 35.75 DKFP.
Myles Turner ($7,800): Stretch bigs aren’t as productive against the Celtics due to their ability to switch on the perimeter and recover to shooters. Sure, Turner will get some looks, as he’s attempted at least 10 shots in every game against the Celtics this season, but he has failed to score over 17 points in any of those contests. He’s gone over 30 DKFP just once.
The Pacers have had one day to recover from their seven-game series with the Knicks. The Celtics are well-rested since they haven’t played since last Wednesday. There’s a chance that Indiana has some momentum to carry over into the first game of this series while the Celtics are a little rusty, but Boston has played well in Game 1s during these playoffs and had a six-game rest between the first round and conference semifinals, so this is not unchartered territory. I’m expecting Boston to come out firing on all cylinders with a raucous crowd cheering them on.
Final Score: Celtics 122, Pacers 110
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $500K Shootaround [$100K to 1st] (IND vs BOS)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mbarner51) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
