The Mavericks were more like marauders in Game 1, stealing home court with the 108-105 win. Their defense was great, packing the paint and limiting Minnesota to 42.7% shooting. Anthony Edwards ($11,400) was held to 6-of-16 from the field and said that he needed to adjust to the Mavericks playing lower than Denver. On offense, the drop coverage of Minnesota was put in quite the conundrum with Luka Doncic ($13,400) and Kyrie Irving ($9,800) wading into the paint like blood-smelling sharks. Daniel Gafford ($5,200) and Dereck Lively ($5,400) were soaring like hawks, ready to pounce on any balls floating into the atmosphere. I can’t wait to see what adjustments will be implemented.
DraftKings Sportsbook has MIN -5.5 over DAL at home. The total is 207.5. Mike Conley ($7,000) is questionable. Keep track of injury updates at DK Live.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $500K Shootaround [$100K to 1st] (DAL vs MIN)
Jaden McDaniels ($9,000 CP): Over the last 10 games, McDaniels has exceeded point expectations 80% of the time. He has scored at least 20 points in each of the last three contests and the usage rate has increased from 18% to 24.1%. Known as a defensive maven, McDaniels has confidently knocked down the open J while attacking closeouts with ferocity. Barring injury or foul trouble, he is going to play a ton of minutes (40 and 39 in the last two contests) and should continue to get open looks as the Mavericks have been packing in the paint to neutralize slashing lanes for Edwards. McDaniels has put up 35, 39.5 and 37 DKFP in the last three games and should get opportunities to get there again.
Luka Doncic ($20,100 CP): Doncic has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate. I probably won’t be going down this path due to the high cost, but I have made lineups that are viable and would choose Doncic if paying up. He’s a threat to triple-double in any game, will likely stuff the stat sheet and is basically unguardable—even with the length that Minnesota possesses. The issues are that he’s such a good ball handler, an excellent shooter and has the girth to body his way down into the paint. With Lively and Gafford as lob threats, there is always space for him to operate. So, he’s either going to shoot and have a good chance of converting, or will dish out a dime for an easy bucket. Either way, it’s fantasy goodies.
Anthony Edwards ($11,400): Edwards was held to 6-of-16 shooting in Game 1. He ended with 19 points, but also contributed 11 rebounds, eight assists and two steals. That was still good for 51.25 DKFP. He has a better idea of how Dallas is defending him now and will likely make the necessary adjustments, which likely entails pulling up for middies to bring the defense out a bit. Once that happens, then he could start attacking the rim. I expect an aggressive Edwards tonight, with a 40-burger well within the range of outcomes.
Derrick Jones Jr. ($5,000): Jones is out there for his defense, which means he will likely be on the floor for over 30 minutes. He’s a low usage player but should get plenty of open looks as the Minnesota defense focuses on Irving and Doncic. In Game 1, he attempted nine shots and only put up 16 DKFP, but he went for at least 30 DKFP in two the last three games of the OKC series.
Naz Reid ($4,600): Reid will likely play around 22 to 24 minutes, but when he’s on the court, he produces with points, rebounds and some defensive stats. His ability to make it rain from downtown spaces out the floor. With Dallas packing the paint to limit driving lanes, Reid should get plenty of good looks. In Game 1, he shot 5-of-9 from the field and 3-of-6 from downtown.
PJ Washington ($8,000): Washington has shown he has 50-DKFP upside in the OKC series because he can do work on the boards and score, especially from beyond the arc. He was getting close to 20 shots a game in the games he went bonkers. Minnesota left him alone at times, but Washington ended with 10 shot attempts in Game 1. Washington is a very streaky shooter and it’s highly unlikely he gets close to 20 shots in this one. He will have his moments, especially since he’ll be on the court a ton, but the price feels a little elevated for the expected production.
I expect this to be a close, grind-it-out affair. Doncic should continue exploiting the drop coverage defense from Gobert, while I like Edwards to have one of those ANT games. That said, I like the role players to hit the necessary shots for Minnesota while those from Dallas to struggle a bit.
Final Score: Timberwolves 103, Mavericks 98
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $500K Shootaround [$100K to 1st] (DAL vs MIN)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mbarner51) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
