Sean Barnard makes his DraftKings Pick6 selections for the Week 9 Monday Night Football matchup between the Chiefs and Buccaneers.
The Week 9 NFL slate will be concluded by a Monday night matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City is the only remaining undefeated team while the Buccaneers enter with a 4-4 record ahead of this game.
The Chiefs enter as 8.5-point favorites and -395 favorites on the moneyline. The Buccaneers are +310 underdogs on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook while the game total is set at 45.5 points.
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While the Kansas City Chiefs enter with a perfect 7-0 record, they have yet to play their best football. Patrick Mahomes entered the week tied for the most interceptions and has only thrown eight touchdowns thus far. He also ranks just 23rd in overall passing yards and 24th in QB Rating. Instead, the Chiefs have had their success defensively as they rank third in points allowed and have given up the fifth-fewest yards.
Tampa Bay is constructed with an offensive identity. The Buccaneers rank third in points scored so far this season and fifth in yards produced. In contrast, they rank 27th in points allowed and 30th in yards given up. Injuries could change this as the Buccaneers will be without their top two pass catchers for tonight and moving forward. Mike Evans is battling a hamstring injury while Chris Godwin suffered a gruesome ankle injury in Week 7 that will keep him out for the season. This will be a huge issue moving forward and tonight will be one of the first looks at how the offense changes.
With the stage set, here are my top Pick6 choices for the Week 9 Monday night matchup.
While Patrick Mahomes has yet to have his breakout performance, the Buccaneers are a perfect opportunity for him to change this. Tampa Bay ranks 30th in yards allowed, 30th in passing yards allowed, 27th in passing touchdowns given up and 23rd in net yards per pass attempt.
Even amid his struggles, Mahomes is averaging 235.9 passing yards per game and has thrown for more than 249.5 passing yards in three of the seven games. He has also averaged 292.0 passing yards per game throughout his career and has averaged more than 249.5 passing yards in all seven seasons before this.
It is scary to think the undefeated Chiefs have not played their best football, but this is the reality of the situation. Expect Mahomes to begin inching back to the clear-cut best quarterback in the NFL. The Buccaneers’ defense provides a perfect opportunity to get back on track, so expect Mahomes to end up with more than 249.5 passing yards in this matchup.
Part of the holdup in the Chiefs’ offensive production has been their inability to use Xavier Worthy effectively. While this is strange to see in an Andy Reid offense, Worthy’s best days are ahead of him on a football field. The first-round speedster has tallied just 19 receptions for 235 yards and three receiving touchdowns while adding seven carries for 47 yards and a pair of rushing touchdowns.
For the time being, he has been reduced to more of a “gimmick” role within the offense, but there is room for him to grow into more of a traditional wide receiver role. Worthy has still tallied at least two receptions in each game and has been targeted at least three times as well. He is also coming off back-to-back games in which he was targeted eight times, which are career-highs.
Mahomes also deserves some blame for Worthy’s lack of box score impact, and both have a great opportunity for this to be their best game of the season. Worthy has big-play potential and can eclipse 37.5 receiving yards in just one opportunity. Expect him to have plenty of chances and for him to record more than 37.5 receiving yards in this matchup.
Without throwing a pass yet in Week 9, Baker Mayfield ranks fifth in the NFL in total passing yards with 2,189 passing yards this season. His 273.6 passing yards per game ranks second in the NFL and he has thrown for more than 238.5 passing yards in five of the eight games.
The stingy Kansas City defense and loss of his top two pass catchers have shrunk this number for the matchup. While it may not be the cleanest route to get there, Mayfield should still be expected to reach more than 238.5 passing yards. Names like Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer may not strike quite as much fear into the hearts of opposing defenses, but the offense should still allow Mayfield to air it out plenty.
Don’t expect it to be the prettiest route to get there, but Mayfield will have enough opportunity to reach this passing total. This game has blowout potential and, especially with the expected growing pains from the wide receiver changes, Tampa Bay will likely fall behind early. Tampa Bay has shown it will not just roll over and accept a loss and will continue to generate offense until the final whistle. Expect the Buccaneers to continue airing the ball out and for Mayfield to make his way to this number. He has attempted 45+ pass attempts in three games already this season and this has all the ingredients of the fourth.
There will be huge shoes for rookie Jalen McMillan to fill as he is forced into a more prominent role in the offense. So far this season, he has tallied just 10 receptions for 109 yards and one touchdown. McMillan has still logged 77% or greater of the offensive snaps in four of the six games he has suited up for and will have a clearer route to targets in this game.
While McMillan will undoubtedly be more involved in the offense, the 3.5-reception margin still feels lofty. He has cleared this number once this season but does not have the same familiarity with Mayfield as guys like Trey Palmer or Cade Otton.
Expect there to be some growing pains for the rookie as he steps into a different role from what he has been accustomed to. Count on McMillan to have a chance at a big play or two, but he will need some more time to develop before being looked at as a key pass catcher on regular downs. Expect McMillan to continue taking a backseat in the offense even despite the injuries.
Kareem Hunt has picked up right where he left off upon putting on a Chiefs jersey. The former Pro Bowl running back has suited up for four games for Kansas City this season, tallying 308 rushing yards and four touchdowns. He has recorded more than 65.5 rushing yards in three of his four games thus far and has carried the ball 21 or more times in each of the past three weeks.
While the Buccaneers defend the rush better than the pass, Hunt should have plenty of opportunity to reach this number. In contrast to the Buccaneers, who are expected to be playing from behind and looking to air it out, expect the Chiefs to be conscious of the clock and willing to keep the ball on the ground.
The last time Hunt played a full season in a Chiefs uniform, he led the NFL in rushing. While he should not be expected to reach quite these heights this season, the 65.5-rushing yard margin is too low based on the carries he will receive. Count on Hunt to record more than 65.5 rushing yards again this week.
Bucky Irving has emerged as the lead back in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers backfield. While Rachaad White has added 256 rushing yards of his own, Irving leads the Buccaneers with 76 carries, 395 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. He has also added 20 receptions for 164 yards through the air.
Heading into this matchup, expect both running backs to be involved in the game plan. While Irving has carried a questionable tag throughout the week, this is the same toe injury he played through last week and was still able to tally 84 yards from scrimmage.
Both White and Irving are capable of catching the ball out of the backfield, but Irving is coming off a seven-reception performance, which marks his most of the season. Expect the game script to force a pass-oriented attack and opt toward the combined rushing and receiving total for this game. Irving has tallied more than 51.5 combined rushing and receiving yards in seven of the eight games thus far and should be expected to maintain this against the Chiefs.
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