Sean Barnard makes his DraftKings Pick6 selections for the Week 5 Monday Night Football matchup between the Chiefs and Saints.
The NFL season continues on with only one Monday night matchup to conclude Week 5. The New Orleans Saints will travel to Kansas City to face the reigning back-to-back Super Bowl champions.
New Orleans started the season producing 91 points through the opening two weeks but has cooled off since. It is coming off back-to-back losses and holds a 2-2 record entering this game. The Saints will need their offense to heat back up if they are to give the Chiefs a battle. Kansas City is a perfect 4-0 to start the season despite every game being decided by seven points or less.
The Chiefs enter this game as 5.5-point favorites and are -245 favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Saints hold +200 odds on the moneyline and the over/under for the game is set at 43.
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While you can’t argue with the 4-0 record, the Chiefs have not been as dominant to start this year. Through the first four weeks, they rank 14th in scoring and 15th in yards on the offensive end. Patrick Mahomes has also thrown five uncharacteristic interceptions in the first four weeks. Defensively, the Chiefs rank seventh in points allowed but 15th in yards given up.
New Orleans remains the top-scoring offense in the league but has cooled down from its impressive start. Through the first four games, the Saints rank 10th in yards and lead the NFL in rush attempts. Defensively, they rank sixth in points allowed and 17th in yards given up. They are also allowing the fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL thus far.
With the stage set, here are my top Pick6 choices for the Week 5 Monday night matchup.
The Chiefs had an unfortunate break last week when WR Rashee Rice suffered a significant knee injury set to keep him out for at least the next 6-8 weeks. All eyes will now be on Xavier Worthy, who the Chiefs selected with the 28th overall pick in this year’s draft. Worthy has flashed through the first four weeks of the season, but he is still refining his full skill set as a wide receiver. Through the opening four games, he has tallied nine receptions for 154 yards, five carries for 39 yards and three total touchdowns. Kansas City has made an effort to put the ball in his hands and Worthy has provided a unique aspect to the offense with his breakaway speed.
Heading into this week’s matchup, expect Worthy to be more involved in a traditional wide receiver role. Rice leads the team in targets (29) and receptions (24), leaving some significant production needing replacement. Expect Worthy to see an uptick in targets and for the Chiefs to put the ball in his hands often. The Texas product has recorded more than 42.5 receiving yards in two of the four games so far and will be in line for his highest usage so far in his NFL career. Expect Worthy to have no problem eclipsing 42.5 yards as this can happen on any given play with him.
The growing concern over Travis Kelce’s slow start to the season was put to bed last week. The three-time Super Bowl champion had his best game of the season tallying seven receptions on nine targets for 89 yards. This marked more yards through the air than the first three games combined.
Kelce will also be positively impacted by the injury to Rice. He currently ranks second on the team in both targets (21) and receptions (15) but has yet to record his first touchdown. While the end-zone results are due to start occurring, expect Kelce to be utilized all over the field. Whether it was an offseason hangover still wearing off, playing himself into shape or just some unfortunate matchups, Kelce’s slow start should officially be put in the past.
Expect Patrick Mahomes to target Kelce heavily as he is the most reliable pass catcher on the roster by a notable margin following the injury to Rice. Kelce recorded more than 5.5 catches in nine of the 15 games he played last season and 12 of the 17 games the year before. The four-time All-Pro has faced off with the Saints just twice in his career but tallied eight receptions in their last matchup. Expect similar success in tonight’s game and for Kelce to record at least six receptions.
When listing players who have impressed the most to start the 2024 season, there aren’t many names ahead of Alvin Kamara. The New Orleans Saints star has tallied 110 or more yards from scrimmage in all four games this season and recorded six total touchdowns. Entering tonight’s game, Kamara ranks eighth in the league in rushing, with every player ahead of him except for Saquon Barkley having played one more game than him.
Kamara has generated 40% of the Saints offensive touchdowns so far this season and should be expected to maintain this level of play. This is the same player who led the NFL with 21 touchdowns just a few years ago and New Orleans has found its identity as a run-oriented team.
The Chiefs have already allowed rushing touchdowns to Derrick Henry and Bijan Robinson this season in their matchups. Kamara should be expected to see a similar level of opportunity near the goal line. In addition, he is in the sweet spot of being involved in both the rushing and passing game. Kamara has had 20 or more touches in each game and is playing some of the best football of his career. Expect this to continue in the matchup with the Chiefs and for Kamara to find his way into the end zone for the seventh time this season.
Derek Carr has had a really nice start to the season. He has completed 72.0% of his pass attempts for 824 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions. Carr has thrown for 200 or more yards in three of the first four games, but this has come in big chunks. He has been held to 25 or fewer pass attempts in three of the four games, with last week’s loss to the Falcons marking the only game he has had more than 20.5 completions. Carr completed 19 passes in the season opener, 11 in Week 2, 14 in Week 3 and 28 last week.
The Saints have found their identity as a run-first team and this is leading to success. They lead the NFL in rush attempts this season and have tallied the second-most rushing touchdowns. Overall, New Orleans has run the ball 138 times this season while throwing 101 total pass attempts. Expect Kamara to set the tone in the offense and for Carr to be the complement to this.
The Chiefs have not flashed their typical ability to blow teams out this season. They have won their first four games by a combined margin of 20 points with all four being one-possession games. This limits the risk of a blowout, which would lead to more Carr pass attempts. Expect the Saints to stick to their script as a run-first team and for Carr’s impact in the game to be relatively minor. The 20.5-completion margin is too high for his level of opportunity, so expect him to fall short in the Monday night matchup.
While the 4-0 record makes the team hard to doubt, the Chiefs have yet to look like the peak version of themselves this season. At the heart of this has been the play of Patrick Mahomes, who has thrown five interceptions over the first four games. This also follows last season in which Mahomes threw a career-high 14 interceptions.
The two-time MVP has toed the line more than ever of trying to do too much at times and this has only been magnified by the lack of weapons around him. The injury to Rashee Rice takes away one of his few reliable weapons on the already slim list. This Saints defense has also had success taking away from their opponents this season. They have forced six interceptions in the opening four games and rank fourth in the NFL in turnovers overall.
It takes just one mistake for an interception to occur. With the Saints’ defense flashing the ability to make opposing quarterbacks pay and Mahomes showing an increased willingness to take risks, expect this to occur in Week 5.
There is a case to be made that Chris Olave is the most underrated wide receiver in the NFL. The Ohio State product has had over 1,000 yards receiving both seasons he has been in the NFL and is off to a hot start to this season. Olave had a quiet start to the year with just two receptions for 11 yards in the opening game. He then followed this up with three consecutive games with four or more receptions and 80+ yards through the air. Looking at his career as a whole, Olave has had 60 or more receiving yards in 20 of the 35 NFL games he has been active for.
Through the first four weeks of the season, the Chiefs have allowed five different pass catchers to record more than 60 yards and at least one in each game. Kansas City ranks 22nd in passing yards allowed and 17th in passing touchdowns. Olave will be responsible for the majority of the team’s production in the passing game and will surely get the most significant target share. Expect him to keep the streak of 60+ yard receivers going in this matchup and for Olave to continue his path toward another 1,000+ receiving yard season.
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