PFF breaks down the Christmas Day matchups by looking at the teams’ records, key trends, and game overviews before delivering the best bets backed by PFF’s trusted betting model.
With the Chiefs just one win away from clinching the AFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, they’ve picked the right time to find their stride in betting markets. Kansas City has covered the spread in each of its last two games after failing to do so in seven consecutive matchups earlier this season.
However, covering as road favorites remains a challenge for the Chiefs, as they hold a 2-2-1 ATS record away from Arrowhead this season.
Conversely, the Steelers endured a disappointing weekend, seeing their hopes of capturing the AFC’s top seed vanish while opening the door for Baltimore to take control of the division. Pittsburgh has now failed to cover the spread in consecutive games as sizable road underdogs, a stark shift from their 5-0 ATS record when receiving points before Week 13.
The stakes couldn’t be higher as the Steelers return home with a simple mission: win out to claim the AFC North crown. Boasting an impressive 5-1 ATS record at home — their only miss coming in Week 5 — expect Mike Tomlin’s squad to bring maximum effort in this critical stretch.
December has been unkind to Wilson, with the veteran quarterback earning a 67.7 PFF passing grade since the start of the month. During this stretch, he has failed to surpass this passing yardage line in three consecutive games, averaging a mere 167 yards per contest.
This downturn aligns closely with the absence of WR George Pickens, who has missed the past three games due to a hamstring injury and remains a game-time decision on a short week.
Without Pickens, the Chiefs’ coverage unit is well-positioned to stifle the Steelers’ already limited passing attack. The Kansas City defense ranks second in EPA allowed per dropback since December began, holding opponents to just 6.5 yards per pass attempt.
With a playoff berth locked in, the Ravens now aim for the AFC North title. If Pittsburgh stumbles in the early Christmas Day matchup, Baltimore will have a chance to seize control of the division with just one game left in the regular season.
The Ravens have been a reliable team in betting markets, posting a 3-1 ATS record over their past four games. This stretch includes two covers as road favorites, improving their season mark to 5-2 ATS when laying points away from home.
With the AFC South title secured, the Texans are now focusing on climbing to the AFC’s No. 3 seed. A Pittsburgh loss earlier in the day could provide added motivation, as a win at home would give Houston the edge in conference victories and help them avoid a tough first-round playoff matchup against the AFC North.
Houston has been underdogs at home just once this season, a narrow loss to Detroit that ended on a game-winning field goal as time expired, though they managed to cover as four-point dogs. However, Texans bettors have faced mixed results in December, with the team posting a 1-1-1 ATS record this month.
The devastating injury to Tank Dell last week adds to a string of setbacks for the Texans’ receiver room, with Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and now Dell all missing time this season. These absences have contributed to the passing game’s inconsistency.
With Dell sidelined, Collins and Dalton Schultz will need to shoulder more responsibility. Schultz has surpassed this receiving yardage line in two of his last three games, showcasing his ability to step up when needed.
While the Ravens’ coverage has improved with Kyle Hamilton patrolling the back end, tight ends continue to find success against them. Baltimore has allowed a tight end to exceed 34.5 receiving yards in 12 of 15 games this season, making Schultz a strong candidate to hit the over.
