NFL Divisional Round picks: Why you should consider Texans, Lions, and Bills
Lorenzo Reyes is back with his three best bets for the NFL’s Divisional Round weekend.
Lorenzo’s Locks
The NFL’s divisional weekend is set to close with what looks like, on paper, one of the best potential games of the 2025 playoffs. The Buffalo Bills will host the Baltimore Ravens as the league’s top two MVP candidates battle for the right to go to the AFC championship game.
Josh Allen‘s Bills have earned the right to host the clash between the AFC’s No. 2 and No. 3 seed. They posted a 13-4 record during the regular season and were the only team to beat the Kansas City Chiefs during the regular season. Allen logged 4,262 total yards and 40 total touchdowns during the 2024 NFL season and tossed a career-low six interceptions in his most efficient season.
While Allen got a lot of love for his performance throughout the 2024 season, Lamar Jackson may have overtaken him in the MVP race late in the season. He was named a first-team All-Pro at quarterback after racking up 5,087 total yards and recording 45 total touchdowns and just four interceptions.
Allen and Jackson are playmakers through the air and can run for big gains and touchdowns. NFL bettors will be thrilled about the possibility of backing their offenses in this contest, even though the quarterback prop bets may not be the best to trust among those on the board.
What are the best bets for the Bills vs. Ravens NFL playoff game? Here’s a look at the top player props and anytime TD scorers to back in the final game of the league’s divisional weekend.
All odds are via BetMGM as of Friday.
Henry posted his best single-game output of the season in the Ravens’ Week 4 win over the Bills. He racked up 199 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries while routinely busting through to the second level of a Buffalo defense that endured some early-season struggles against the run.
The Bills aren’t as easy to run on now as early in the year. Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard are healthy, giving the team a couple of do-it-all linebackers to contain runners better.
Still, Henry is on a heater. He has posted at least 138 rushing yards in four consecutive games while scoring five times on the ground during that span. It’s hard to recommend doubting the powerfully built running back, especially in cold-weather conditions that will make it even harder to tackle him.
The Ravens started the season shakily on the defensive side of the ball. However, since midseason, Zach Orr’s unit has emerged as one of the best in football, buttoning down its issues against top-flight receivers and quarterbacks, so that may make it difficult for Buffalo’s receiver-by-committee approach to work well in this contest.
That said, the Ravens have had issues containing good pass-catching backs. They allowed the fourth-most receiving yards (674) to running backs during the 2024 regular season and have allowed an average of 36.8 receiving yards to running backs per game since Week 9. That includes the 60 combined they surrendered to Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren in their wild-card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Cook figures to be more involved in Buffalo’s passing game in what could be a tightly contested battle. Ty Johnson may take away some of his targets, but there’s little doubt Allen and Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady will try to get the ball into Cook’s hands early to jumpstart the Buffalo offense. That should allow the Bills’ top back to exceed this relatively low total easily.
Baltimore hasn’t just been beaten by pass-catching running backs this year. The Ravens have also been below-average against tight ends, allowing the ninth-most receiving yards to the position.
Kincaid was a bust for those who trusted him in fantasy football this season because he wasn’t a touchdown threat. However, in four games since returning from a knee injury, he has averaged 4.75 targets per game for 3.25 catches and 34.75 receiving yards per game.
Those numbers may not seem like anything special, but Kincaid has an average depth of target (ADOT) of 7.9. That ranks ninth among tight ends and should allow him to rip off some chunk plays against a Ravens defense that doesn’t always corral tight ends well.
OK, let’s get nuts. Hill certainly isn’t the first player you think of when discussing the Baltimore offense, but he has a great matchup against a Bills defense that allowed a league-high 750 receiving yards to running backs in 2024. Buffalo is one of just five teams to allow six receiving touchdowns to running backs, so Hill’s skill set matches well with one of the Bills’ most significant defensive weaknesses.
Hill doesn’t get a lot of opportunities to run the ball behind the bruising Henry, but he has enjoyed a rock-solid year as a pass-catching complement to the veteran. Hill has racked up four receiving touchdowns this season, including one in the Ravens’ wild-card win over the Steelers, and averaged a healthy 3.4 targets per game during the regular season despite a limited role behind Henry.
Hill had six catches for 78 yards in Baltimore’s early season decimation of the Bills, so he should be poised for another quality outing. He could take on more of a workload in the red zone with Zay Flowers doubtful for the contest because of a knee injury. Don’t be surprised to see if Hill finds a way into the end zone in this one.
