Tennis betting tips: ATP Finals

4pts Jannik Sinner to win the title at 6/4 (Sky Bet, BoyleSports)

1pt e.w. Alex Zverev to win the title at 13/2 (General 1/2 1,2)

2pts Alex Zverev to win the Newcombe Group at 2/1 (bet365, BoyleSports)

1pt Taylor Fritz to qualify for the semi-finals at 8/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Nitto ATP Finals

• Turin, Italy (indoor hard)

The best players of the ATP Tour season gather in Turin this week for the season-ending ATP Finals.

While this has been a tournament which has disappointed on some occasions, its recent past has been strong with plenty of highly competitive matches between the stars of the men’s game.

The format – two groups of four with the top two in each progressing to the semi-finals – ensure fans get to see the best battle the best from gun to tape and it promises to be a good week.

The recent Paris Masters event was notable for its quick conditions and they should be replicated in northern Italy.

This has been one of the fastest venues on the tour since the Finals moved to Turin from London in 2021, the pacy Greenset Grand Prix court being aided by slight altitude.

Let’s move onto the players…

ILIE NASTASE GROUP

Jannik Sinner

• Best odds: Title – 6/4; Group – 4/7; Qualify – 1/8
• Race position: 1st
• 2024 win-loss record: 65-6
• 2024 win-loss record v top 10: 12-5
• 2024 titles: 7 – US Open, Australian Open, Rotterdam, Miami, Halle, Cincinnati, Shanghai
• ATP Finals record: 5-2 (23 RU, 21 Gp)
• Recent form: W Shanghai, RU Beijing
• Record v group opponents:
  Medvedev – overall: 7-7; all hard: 7-6; indoor hard: 2-5; 2024: 4-1
  Fritz – overall: 2-1; all hard: 2-1; indoor hard: 0-0; 2024: 1-0
  De Minaur – overall: 7-0; all hard: 6-0; indoor hard: 4-0; 2024: 1-0

The fact that Sinner locked down the year-end number one spot last month tells you all you need to know about his season – he’s been the best player in 2024. The Australian Open and US Open champion arrives here having won 21 of his last 22 ATP matches, a period during which he also won the 6 Kings Slam exhibition event, defeating Carlos Alcaraz in the final. Showed he can cope with the slick conditions here last year when, roared on by home support, he made the final. Will aim to go one better this time around and looks the man to beat.

Daniil Medvedev

• Best odds: Title – 12/1; Group – 4/1; Qualify – 19/20
• Race position: 4th
• 2024 win-loss record: 45-19
• 2024 win-loss record v top 10: 5-7
• 2024 titles: 0
• ATP Finals record: 11-9 (23 SF, 22 Gp, 21 RU, 20 W, 19 Gp)
• Recent form: L32 Paris, QF Shanghai, SF Beijing
• Record v group opponents:
  Sinner – overall: 7-7; all hard: 6-7; indoor hard: 5-2; 2024: 1-4
  Fritz – overall: 1-0; all hard: 1-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2024: 0-0
  De Minaur – overall: 6-3; all hard: 6-2; indoor hard: 1-1; 2024: 0-1

Won this event when it was last staged in London in 2020 and also made the final here in Turin the following year. But progress has stalled in recent times and Medvedev has not won a title in 18 months. Breaking that run in this company looks a tough ask. The fact that he’s a combined 1-7 against Sinner and Alcaraz this season says much – basically Medvedev isn’t quite operating at the very top level.

Taylor Fritz

• Best odds: Title – 20/1; Group – 15/2; Qualify – 8/5
• Race position: 5th
• 2024 win-loss record: 49-21
• 2024 win-loss record v top 10: 7-8
• 2024 titles: 2 – Delray Beach, Eastbourne
• ATP Finals record: 2-2 (22 SF)
• Recent form: L32 Paris, SF Shanghai, L32 Tokyo
• Record v group opponents:
  Sinner – overall: 1-2; all hard: 1-2; indoor hard: 0-0; 2024: 0-1
  Medvedev – overall: 0-1; all hard: 0-1; indoor hard: 0-0; 2024: 0-0
  De Minaur – overall: 3-5; all hard: 2-5; indoor hard: 0-2; 2024: 0-1

The fast court should suit Fritz’s big-serving game – he made the semis in slick Shanghai last month. The American certainly liked it on his only previous appearance here in 2022 when he reached the last four. Has improved his power and consistency off the ground this season, although he hasn’t beaten any of his group rivals in 2024. Has potential at a big price but there are more likely winners.

Alex de Minaur

• Best odds: Title – 40/1; Group – 14/1; Qualify – 13/5
• Race position: 8th
• 2024 win-loss record: 47-16
• 2024 win-loss record v top 10: 5-6
• 2024 titles: 2 – Acapulco, Den Bosch
• ATP Finals record: Debut
• Recent form: QF Paris, SF Vienna, QF Antwerp
• Record v group opponents:
  Sinner – overall: 0-7; all hard: 0-6; indoor hard: 0-4; 2024: 0-1
  Medvedev – overall: 3-6; all hard: 2-6; indoor hard: 1-1; 2024: 1-0
  Fritz – overall: 5-3; all hard: 5-2; indoor hard: 2-0; 2024: 1-0

The only debutant in this year’s field, De Minaur was impressive during the first half of season but injury struck at Wimbledon and he then faced a battle to qualify, eventually getting in earlier this week. There have been some encouraging signs during the recent indoor swing but things get tougher now given the quality of opponent. Not without a chance of making it out of this group but an awful record against Sinner leaves him with little wriggle room.

JOHN NEWCOMBE GROUP

Alex Zverev

• Best odds: Title – 13/2; Group – 2/1; Qualify – 4/9
• Race position: 2nd
• 2024 win-loss record: 66-20
• 2024 win-loss record v top 10: 5-6
• 2024 titles: 2 – Rome, Paris
• ATP Finals record: 14-9 (23 Gp, W 21, Gp 20, SF 19, W 18, Gp 17)
• Recent form: W Paris, QF Vienna, L16 Shanghai
• Record v group opponents:
  Alcaraz – overall: 5-5; all hard: 4-2; indoor hard: 2-0; 2024: 1-2
  Ruud – overall: 3-2; all hard: 2-1; indoor hard: 1-0; 2024: 1-0
  Rublev – overall: 6-3; all hard: 5-2; indoor hard: 1-1; 2024: 0-0

With Djokovic absent, Zverev is the only two-time winner of this event in the field. Significantly, one of those victories came here in Turin in 2021. With his big serve, the German, who leads the ATP Tour for matches won this season, should enjoy the conditions. He recently won on the speedy Paris Masters court to dampen concerns about a lung issue and now looks well set to contend here.

Carlos Alcaraz

• Best odds: Title – 5/2; Group – evens; Qualify – 1/4
• Race position: 3rd
• 2024 win-loss record: 52-11
• 2024 win-loss record v top 10: 11-3
• 2024 titles: 4 – Wimbledon, French Open, Indian Wells, Beijing
• ATP Finals record: 2-2 (23 SF)
• Recent form: L16 Paris, QF Shanghai, W Beijing
• Record v group opponents:
  Zverev – overall: 5-5; all hard: 2-4; indoor hard: 0-2; 2024: 2-1
  Ruud – overall: 4-0; all hard: 3-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2024: 0-0
  Rublev – overall: 1-1; all hard: 1-0; indoor hard: 1-0; 2024: 0-1

Twice a Grand Slam champion this season and unbeaten against title favourite Sinner on the main tour in 2024, you can see why Alcaraz is pretty short in the betting. Yet the fact is he’s never played in an ATP final indoors, let alone won such a tournament. Like the man he’s often been compared to, Rafael Nadal, Alcaraz has so far struggled (relatively speaking) in the post-US Open part of the season. It’s also quicker than ideal here for the Spaniard and I don’t see much value in his price.

Casper Ruud

• Best odds: Title – 50/1; Group – 20/1; Qualify – 11/2
• Race position: 7th
• 2024 win-loss record: 49-23
• 2024 win-loss record v top 10: 4-2
• 2024 titles: 2 – Barcelona, Geneva
• ATP Finals record: 5-4 (22 RU, 21 SF)
• Recent form: L16 Metz, L32 Paris, L32 Basel, QF Stockholm, L64 Shanghai, L32 Tokyo
• Record v group opponents:
  Zverev – overall: 2-3; all hard: 1-2; indoor hard: 0-1; 2024: 0-1
  Alcaraz – overall: 0-4; all hard: 0-3; indoor hard: 0-0; 2024: 0-0
  Rublev – overall: 2-5; all hard: 2-1; indoor hard: 2-0; 2024: 0-0

Looking for positives, Ruud holds a winning record against top-10 players in 2024 but he hasn’t played one since Roland Garros. After that, I’m struggling. Ruud arrives having lost eight of his 10 matches since the US Open – that’s wretched form. The chance of him turning things around in this company look slim, especially given his losing record against all three group foes. Did make the semis in Turin two years ago but it’s hard to make a case for a repeat.

Andrey Rublev

• Best odds: Title – 40/1; Group – 7/1; Qualify – 21/10
• Race position: 9th
• 2024 win-loss record: 43-23
• 2024 win-loss record v top 10: 3-3
• 2024 titles: 2 – Hong Kong, Madrid
• ATP Finals record: 4-9 (23 Gp, 22 SF, 21 Gp, 20 Gp)
• Recent form: QF Metz, L32 Paris, QF Basel, QF Stockholm, L64 Shanghai, QF Beijing
• Record v group opponents:
  Zverev – overall: 3-6; all hard: 2-5; indoor hard: 1-1; 2024: 0-0
  Alcaraz – overall: 1-1; all hard: 0-1; indoor hard: 0-1; 2024: 1-0
  Ruud – overall: 5-2; all hard: 1-2; indoor hard: 0-2; 2024: 0-0

Rublev has the fewest wins and most losses of any player in this field and is only here due to Novak Djokovic’s withdrawal. Could he still contend? It seems unlikely. Rublev has struggled in this company in the past – this will be his fifth ATP Finals appearance but he’s only made it out of the group stage once before, going 4-9. That stat sums up the career of player who is yet to reach a Grand Slam semi-final – not quite good enough against the elite.

VERDICT

JANNIK SINNER looks a worthy favourite in Turin where he played so well last year, beating Novak Djokovic in the group stage before the Serb took his revenge in the final.

He’s been the best player in the world this season, certainly on a hardcourt, and should be able to prove it here.

Some will look at his reason for withdrawing from Paris – illness – and balk, but that was almost certainly a precaution with this huge event on home soil the priority for him, while the Davis Cup Finals are still to come.

CLICK HERE to back Sinner with Sky Bet

His main title rival as far as the bookies are concerned is Carlos Alcaraz, but I’m ready to oppose the Spaniard, who looks too short to me at 5/2.

This is a player yet to win a tour-level title indoors and it’s almost certainly going to be quicker than ideal for Alcaraz this week.

The good news is he’s in a group from which he should be able to qualify even if not at his best – Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev look the weakest players in the field to me – but I don’t see him going all the way.

In fact, I’ll happily take him on in the Newcombe Group with ALEX ZVEREV.

The winner of the recent Paris Masters has won the title in Turin before and his big serve is well suited to the slick conditions.

He leads Alcaraz 4-2 on a hardcourt and has won both matches on indoor hard, including here in Turin last year.

That group showdown could well decide the pool and I don’t see why Zverev is twice the price of Alcaraz to win the section.

I’ll back the German to win the group and also have a dabble on him each way in the outright market at 13/2 – I think he’ll have a strong chance of making the final if he can avoid Sinner at the semi-final stage.

CLICK HERE to back Zverev with Sky Bet

Finally, TAYLOR FRITZ may be the one to spring a bit of a surprise in the Nastase Group.

I’m expecting Sinner to dominate here but I don’t see there being that much between the other three players.

Medvedev is the odds-on favourite to make the semis but he’s been well below his best for some time now.

He lost to Alexei Popyrin in Paris, a player not dissimilar to Fritz, whose big serve worked well here two years ago when he reached the last four.

A small bet on Fritz to qualify for the knockout stages at 8/5 is the call.

• The action gets under way on Sunday, with the first singles match taking place at 1300 GMT. You can watch it all live in the UK on Sky Sports.

Posted at 1350 GMT on 08/11/24

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