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Today’s Best BetToday’s Best Long Shot

Eight races will be run and won at Warwick Farm on Monday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Back Me

1 Golden Smile (Bet Now: $20.00) is the way I am leaning in the opener but not a whole lot of interest here in a thin maiden. Kris Lees trained imported mare that made her Australian debut over 1400m at Newcastle where she got back in the run and while she was never a winning threat, she did make up decent headway and was pretty good in defeat. If she can settle closer in the run, I think she’ll run a much improved race.

Danger

5 Peschiera (Bet Now: $4.20) is knocking on the door to win for Team Hawkes. This mare ran over 1400m at Newcastle when off the speed and was held up at times but she got clear air and found the line with real purpose late in the piece in a good piece of work when third. Like her up in trip and is hard to beat.

Long Shot

2 Viktor (Bet Now: $4.00) will put himself on speed and look to give his all. That was the case at Newcastle last time and he gave a decent sight from the front but just felt the pinch late in the piece behind Firm Agreement. If he finds the front and gets some form of control, he’ll take running down.

Back Me

3 Amelita (Bet Now: $4.60) on top. Chris Waller trained filly that resumed with a spank job win at Canterbury, leading throughout and gave nothing else a look in, winning quite impressively. The depth here, as a whole, isn’t overly deep, she should land near the front and be hard to get past.

Danger

1 Tartaglia (Bet Now: $7.00) is a son of Too Darn Hot that resumes for James Cummings. He returns to racing as a gelding for James Cummings, having not raced since June 5 when a strong winner at this track/distance on testing ground. Spelled, been gelded and has trialled up really well for his return. One of the hardest to beat.

Long Shot

4 Insist (Bet Now: $20.00) is a knockout hope. Michael Freedman trained colt that resumed at Kembla where he gave them a start and a beating, getting better as the race went on and was impressive. Harder here, more depth, but with good upside, rates highly I say.

Back Me

1 Aristonous (Bet Now: $4.60) is bursting to win and I think he gets his chance here. He ran over this track/distance last time out where he was held up at times before eventually getting clear and worked home with real purpose late when second to Alalcance. The depth here is very thin and with luck in running, I think good luck beating him.

Danger

2 Bengal Boy (Bet Now: $5.50) looks like he is enjoying life under the care of Kris Lees. First run for the stable came over 1800m on the Kenso where he got off the speed and worked to the line strongly in defeat behind Captain Maverick. Like him up in trip and has good upside compared to most.

Long Shot

5 Lady Redwood (Bet Now: $27.00) is one I can entertain at odds. This mare ran behind Alalcance in the race mentioned above where she got back in the run and was held up at times before getting clear and while she was never a winning threat, she found the line well enough in defeat. That was her first run in a month so with good upside, rates highly as a knockout hope.

Back Me

8 Noises (Bet Now: $8.00) rises a bit in grade/depth but she is a filly heading in the right direction for Brad Widdup and confident she can measure up. She has won two on the bounce, both at Hawkesbury, firstly over 1500m before going to 1800m and was impressive each time. Does she have eyes on the Oaks? Perhaps, and a tick over trial was quite good. Keen to see how she goes.

Danger

6 Kingston Charm (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) looks on track for John Thompson. She ran in the Midway won by El Castello a fortnight back, getting into a decent spot just off the speed and tried hard but couldn’t quite get there when a close up fourth. Has to be respected in what looks a winnable race.

Long Shot

3 Serene Nic (Bet Now: $11.00) is a track/distance winner and has home track advantage so she commands respect. She ran over this track/distance at the midweeks last time when back near last in the run and while she was never a winning threat, she kept finding the line in a good effort. Dangerous if she can settle closer.

Back Me

4 Apollo Mission (Bet Now: $7.00) is rising in grade/depth, but I think he is absolutely humming for Mitch Beer and has earned a crack in town. He is 2/2 this time in, both on the home deck at Kembla where each time he has given them a start and a beating and has been impressive. Trialled up really well at Nowra and although he’ll concede a start, he should be quite strong at the end.

Danger

3 True To Form (Bet Now: $2.50) commands respect. Ciaron Maher trained gelding that put together a couple of wins on the bounce before going to the Kenso when leading and giving a very strong kick and sight but couldn’t quite see it through when second to Rock Empire. Right racing style, he’ll take running down.

Long Shot

8 Cmon Mate (Bet Now: $12.00) doesn’t have the best of winning strike rates but he does have solid enough form lines around him. He ran over 1400m at Kembla last time and was as game as ever but just couldn’t quite see it through, but was beaten by Harlem Queen, a quality filly. That form reads well for this.

Back Me

2 Bonita Queen (Bet Now: $2.60) just picks herself here doesn’t she? She has been dynamic her past two, both over this track/distance, with sustained speed coming to the fore each time. Has been freshened up since last start but a tick over trial win has kept her up to the mark. Only has to hold her form and she wins again.

Danger

11 Fire Star (Bet Now: $4.20) doesn’t have the best of winning strike rates but is a consistent animal that is rarely far away. That was the case at Canterbury last time and he tried hard but couldn’t finish the job behind Boston Rocks. He commands respect outside the favourite.

Long Shot

6 Custo (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) is on the quick back up for Cam Crockett after racing last Sunday at Dubbo in a feature sprint when on speed and was game in defeat when third. Not sure he wins but one to include in wider exotics given his racing style.

Back Me

1 Hard To Say (Bet Now: $4.50) has class on his side and I’ll bank on that class getting him home. Jason Deamer trained sprinter that resumes, having not raced since the Autumn when down the track but far from disgraced in the Ortensia at Scone behind Opal Ridge. Bomb fresh horse, trialled well and he does click with Nash.

Danger

3 The Bopper (Bet Now: $9.50) is a talented galloper for Kris Lees that resumes. He is first up, having not raced since August 12 last year at Eagle Farm when a close up fourth to Rubiquitous. Jury was out on him after the first trial but the second trial was quite good. Market watch and see what happens.

Long Shot

There looks to be clear intent here with 4 Renosu (Bet Now: $6.00), who resumes for James Cummings. He hasn’t raced since April 27 at Rosehill when down the track behind Hard To Say but I reckon that was an end of prep run. He isn’t a noted fresh horse but gee his trials have been electric and the stable traditionally like this race as a kick off point for a good sprinter.

Back Me

12 Anderson Bridge (Bet Now: $4.60) is better suited over a bit further but he looks ready to rock and roll fresh for Chris Waller. He resumes, having not raced since the Queensland Derby when down the track and outclassed behind Warmonger. He has come back in super order off his trial work and J Mac is riding fresh, which signals intent.

Danger

10 Cormac T (Bet Now: $7.50) should appreciate a rise to the mile. He resumed over 1500m at Newcastle when on speed and tried hard to get there but first up, condition just gave way late in the piece when fourth to Behind The Storm, beaten under a length. Fitter, good racing style, he appeals.

Long Shot

5 Ambassadorial (Bet Now: $12.00) is a son of Fiorente that resumes for GaiBott. He hasn’t been seen since March 16 at Caulfield when down the track in the VOBIS Gold Reef behind Fistsoffury. 1600m fresh I like for him, his trial work has been encouraging and with his racing style, he’ll give himself every chance.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 2 Bonita Queen

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 1 Aristonous

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 4 Apollo Mission

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 8

Leg Two: 2

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 3, 5, 6, 10, 12

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