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One of the great races on calendar is the Cox Plate (2040m) and the 2024 edition this Saturday at Moonee Valley highlights a bumper ten race card. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Back Me

This is a good test for the return with 6 Philosopher (Bet Now: $7.00) but I can’t ignore how well he is jumping out at Cranbourne. He has jumped out at Cranbourne a couple of Mondays on the bounce and each time he has gone like a rocket, moving with purpose and seemingly having plenty up the sleeve. Good record at The Valley, down in the weights, presses forward, takes beating.

Danger

2 Katsu (Bet Now: $4.40) is a Grahame Begg trained short course type that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since March 30 at Flemington when down the track over 1000m behind Sans Doute, who was flying at the time. Has trialled/jumped out very well for the return so keen to see how he goes.

Long Shot

7 Red Hot Nicc (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Phillip Stokes trained gelding that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since June 8 at Flemington down the straight when leading and tiring late to finish down the track behind Veloce Carro. Maps to stalk Katsu and if the breaks go his way, he can threaten.

Back Me

2 Pisces (Bet Now: $4.40) is a son of Frosted that resumes for James Cummings. This guy is first up, having not raced since the Taj Rossi Final at Flemington during the Winter when near the speed and fought on really well in defeat behind Jenni’s Meadow. The trial work to get ready has been strong and he should be strong at the end.

Danger

1 Bittercreek (Bet Now: $8.50) has to be given another look for the Corstens/Larkin camp. He resumed three weeks ago in the Danehill at Flemington when off the speed and did make up some ground without threatening behind First Settler. Fitter and up in trip, back to a bending track, he can run a much improved race.

Long Shot

4 Wolfgang (Bet Now: $20.00) is a very interesting runner. Kennewell/Yeomans trained three year old that resumes and returns to racing as a gelding, having not raced since Feb 17 at Flemington when contesting the Talindert and was outclassed but far from disgraced behind Aardvark. Trialled up well for the return and his best is more than good enough. Watch the market.

Back Me

8 Savagery Vibe (Bet Now: $4.60) is three weeks between runs for Nick Ryan since contesting the Danehill where she was rising sharply in grade/depth and while held behind First Settler, she didn’t disgrace herself in defeat at all. Back to this sort of set up and off the debut, she’s going to take beating.

Danger

1 Eneeza (Bet Now: $12.00) has the runs on the board to command respect. She resumed in the Danehill and was terrible, running tailed off last. The jumpout leading in was poor and she ran up to that, so the jury is out, but off her 2YO form, she has to be given one last chance.

Long Shot

6 Tessa’s Choice (Bet Now: $20.00) comes straight to Stakes grade after a first up win in a Ballarat maiden where she looked a good thing on paper and duly saluted under a confident steer from Lane. Loses not much I don’t think with Melham on, she maps perfect again and this isn’t a deep contest.

Back Me

7 Polymnia (Bet Now: $3.70) is still a maiden but she has an engine under the hood and can measure up. She ran in a Kenso maiden last time out when back in the run but J Mac was able to save ground and she drove hard late, just missing out on the win. Not a deep contest this re depth so keen to see how she goes.

Danger

9 Double Market (Bet Now: $5.00) looks a filly on the up for Team Hayes and off the debut win, commands some level of respect. She was kept quite safe in betting when debuting over 1400m at Ballarat where she gave them a start and a beating to win and win well. Gives every indication of appreciating 1600m and overall, this is a thin contest.

Long Shot

1 Cavity Bay (Bet Now: $3.60) is on the seven day back up after racing last Saturday at Morphettville in the Hill Smith when taking on the boys over 1800m and kept finding the line but was held late by a good one, Goldrush Guru. Back to the mile and back to her own sex, she appeals.

Back Me

4 Kingswood (Bet Now: $2.00) has been outstanding in two starts/wins this time in for Gavin Bedggood and you’d have to say is one of the hardest to beat. He won the Coongy last Wednesday, showing good change up speed when asked for the effort and was impressive to the line. Good test here against likely types, but confident he measures up.

Danger

5 Second To Nun (Bet Now: $5.50) can run a big race if they ride her with intent. She got too far out of her ground in the Seymour Cup last time out but I really liked the way she finished her race off in defeat. Think if she can land on the bunny, her best is more than good enough to take this out.

Long Shot

3 Gear Up (Bet Now: $6.00) is dangerous if there is petrol left in the tank. He ran in the Herbert Power where he did a mountain of work in the run and that burn told late in the piece, finishing down the track. The runs prior were very good and off those efforts, he takes beating.

Back Me

The Melbourne 3YO form beyond a mile looks crap. Tradition says the Caulfield Guineas form stands up here so with that, why is 1 Vianarra (Bet Now: $11.00) not closer to favourite? Yes, an 11 start maiden, but he was very good in defeat in the Guineas I thought. Prior form, beaten by a good one, Ndola, and prior to that, was good behind an Oaks filly, Too Darn Discreet. Think he’ll run a beauty here.

Danger

2 Red Aces (Bet Now: $3.30) should appreciate a rise to 2000m. He ran second to Keeneland in the Super Impose in the Flemington, trying his guts out to reel in the eventual winner but had to settle for a second. I do think the rise in trip is ideal and if he can settle closer, he takes beating I say.

Long Shot

4 Politely Dun (Bet Now: $3.10) looks a three year old on the up for Danny O’Brien. He didn’t beat much I thought when winning the Ballarat maiden last time but he was quite dominant the way he put them away late in the piece and was quite strong to the line. Has eyes on the Derby but is certainly going well enough to take this out.

Back Me

1 The Inferno (Bet Now: $15.00) hasn’t won since arriving from Singapore over three years ago but that said, he has run some ripping races previously and has class. He comes here for Cliff Brown two weeks between runs since contesting the Weekend Hussler when back and held up but was never a factor. Back to 1200m, back to The Valley, where he has a great record, he’s a knockout hope IMO.

Danger

2 Oscar’s Fortune (Bet Now: $3.50) looks like he is enjoying life in Victoria. He resumed in the Schillaci two weeks ago where he copped heat on speed but fended off other leaders and looked home, but was bloused late by a class filly, Bellatrix Star. If that hasn’t busted him, he’s taking beating here.

Long Shot

7 Celui (Bet Now: $26.00) is best suited when going jump/run from the outset so with that in mind, I think he can be dangerous at odds here. He was second up in the Schillaci when near the fast speed and that early burn just told on him late behind Bellatrix Star. He has a good record here, will press forward…hard to beat.

Back Me

7 Royal Champion (Bet Now: $4.80) has to be given another look. Team Freedman trained import that resumed over 1400m at Flemington when on speed and although beaten, I thought he stuck on really well in defeat in a good return at his first run down under. He gets in really well at the weights and I do think he’d be better with a bunny to chase.

Danger

2 Von Hauke (Bet Now: $18.00) is the big improver here. He got too far back at Caulfield two weeks ago but I really liked the way he found the line late despite being too far back in the run behind Jimmysstar. Maps to settle much closer in the run, has good upside and overall, this isn’t a deep contest.

Long Shot

3 Laws Of Indices (Bet Now: $18.00) is a good horse for Phillip Stokes and I think has returned in pretty good order. He ram threeweeks back down the straight at Flemington in the Gilgai where he got into a decent spot in transit and tried hard but condition just gave way late in the piece. Fitter and up in trip, he’s a big improver and off a hot speed, he’s an each way play.

Back Me

I have been hot on 2 Prognosis (Bet Now: $3.80) for this race for a couple of months and won’t be dropping off here. Star from Japan who brings the elite form and the Romantic Warrior form, which clearly reads well for this given that horse won the Cox Plate last year. This horse does have a bad habit of missing the kick but if he’s within range 400m out, I think his finale will be too much for his rivals.

Danger

6 Pride Of Jenni (Bet Now: $5.00) is going to look the winner for a long way. She was huge in defeat last Saturday in the King Charles, leading and giving an enormous kick from the front but was run down late by a potential star, Ceowulf. Been set for the race, she’ll lead, roll, look the winner…can she hold on?

Long Shot

8 Broadsiding (Bet Now: $6.00) has to be respected. On face value, just a run in the Caulfield Guineas, but he wasn’t helped by the negative ride and the race shape, which was clearly against him, but his finale was more than sound in defeat. The rise to 2040m looks ideal, and hopefully with a positive ride, he’ll be hard to beat.

Back Me

3 Molly Bloom (Bet Now: $9.50) is dangerous I think. I was keen on her running well in the Epsom but she let me down. She had a suck run on the fence and I thought was going to be strong late but she was plain in the straight and for mine, was disappointing. Hard fit now and back to Mares grade, I think she’s a big improver.

Danger

8 Private Legacy (Bet Now: $5.50) is racing like she will eat up 2040m and off the last run, she’s clearly the one to beat. She ran over the mile at Caulfield two weeks ago and rocketed to the line late, just missing out on the win when second to Grinzinger Belle. Hard fit and up in trip, if she handles The Valley, I think she wins.

Long Shot

4 Osmose (Bet Now: $35.00) has to be given another look for GaiBott. Market took a set against her when racing two weeks back at Caulfield and she ran accordingly when tailed off last behind Grinzinger Belle, not quite pulling up 100%. If she brings her best, she is more than good enough to take this out.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 2 Prognosis

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 1 Vianarra

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 1 The Inferno

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 2, 7, 9

Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 7

Leg Three: 2

Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 8, 10

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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