This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
While Americans celebrate July 4th, the remaining second-round matches at Wimbledon are scheduled to be played Thursday from the grass courts of the All England Club across the pond. A few players who have been hot over the past couple months are well positioned to keep the good times rolling, while a battle of the Brits could produce an upset and an American seed may be in trouble.
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All men’s singles matches at Grand Slams such as Wimbledon are best of five sets, while women’s singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players’ previous grass court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Cameron Norrie (+220) vs. Jack Draper
Draper won’t have a couple of his usual advantages in this intriguing second-round clash. The normally partisan Wimbledon crowd will be split in this battle of Brits, and more importantly, both players are lefties. The 28-year-old Norrie’s far more experienced than the 22-year-old Draper, so the veteran will be better equipped to adjust to the unusual lefty-on-lefty rally patterns. Draper’s just 3-7 in his career against other lefties, while Norrie has a 28-18 career record in lefty-on-lefty matches. Norrie reached the Wimbledon semifinals in 2022, and while he has dropped from the top 10 that year to 42nd currently, he’s still capable of conjuring up high-level tennis. The 28th-seeded Draper didn’t handle the pressure of high expectations well in the first round here, as he was pushed to five sets by Mikael Ymer.
Francisco Comesana (+185) vs. Adam Walton
Comesana just pulled off a stunning first-round upset over No. 6 seed Andrey Rublev, defying the Argentine stereotype of defense-first tennis by smashing 21 aces in the 6-4, 5-7, 6-2, 7-6 (5) win. It’s surprising that he remains a clear underdog in the second round against Walton in this battle of players ranked outside the top 100. The victory over Rublev improved the 122nd-ranked Comesana to 1-3 on the ATP Tour level in his career, while Walton’s 2-5 after his first-round win over Comesana’s countryman Federico Coria. Unlike Comesana, Coria is a stereotypical clay-court specialist, with a career 0-4 record on grass and 6-23 on hard courts, so Comesana is coming off the far more impressive first-round victory between these two unexpected second-round combatants.
Honorable Mention
Arthur Fils (+270) vs. Hubert Hurkacz
Alejandro Tabilo (-230) vs. Flavio Cobolli
Tabilo has been playing at a borderline top-10 level over the past two months, notching an ATP title, a Challenger title and a Masters 1000 semifinal run that included a win over Novak Djokovic. A surprise first-round exit at the French Open has kept him from getting proper recognition for the recent run of success, but Tabilo has bounced back with a 6-1 record on grass. He won a title in Mallorca, and the Chilean’s loss at Queen’s Club came against eventual champion Tommy Paul. If the 19th-ranked Tabilo maintains his recent grass-court level, he should have little trouble getting by the 48th-ranked Cobolli, who hadn’t played a grass-court match in his career prior to this year and hasn’t beaten a player ranked higher than 68th on this surface.
Ons Jabeur (-425) vs. Robin Montgomery
Jabeur is arguably the best grass-court player on the WTA Tour, having reached the Wimbledon final each of the last two years. The No. 10 seed cruised past Moyuka Uchijima 6-3, 6-1 in the first round and should make similarly short work of the 161st-ranked Montgomery. The 19-year-old American did well to get through qualifying and then pick up her first career Grand Slam main-draw win over Olivia Gadecki, but Montgomery isn’t ready to go toe-to-toe with the likes of Jabeur on the Tunisian’s favorite surface.
Honorable Mention
Beatriz Haddad Maia (-210) vs. Camila Osorio
Lloyd Harris (+115) vs. Ben Shelton
Harris has a great comeback story going, as he climbed to No. 31 in the rankings coming off a U.S. Open quarterfinal showing in 2021 but has subsequently been held back by injuries, including one to his wrist that required season-ending surgery in 2022. Finally back and healthy, the big-serving South African produced an impressive first-round win over 19-year-old American Alex Michelsen, coming from two sets down to win a match tiebreak, which he capped with what could be the point of the year. Harris has a nice opportunity to keep his run going against another young American in Ben Shelton, who is still learning how to move and return on grass. The 14th-seeded Shelton went 1-3 on grass in the lead-up to Wimbledon, including two losses to players outside the top 100, and he needed five sets to get by 148th-ranked Mattia Bellucci in the first round.
Yulia Putintseva (+115) vs. Katerina Siniakova
Putintseva has been flying under the radar as a really tough out for the better part of 2024. She reached the quarterfinals in two of the last three WTA 1000 events and is 6-0 this grass-court season. After winning a grass-court title at the Rothesay Classic and beating former Wimbledon champion Angelique Kerber in the first round here, Putintseva will have plenty of confidence heading into this matchup with Siniakova. Due to the cutoff date used for seeding, Siniakova is seeded No. 27 and Putintseva is unseeded, even though Putintseva is actually ranked one spot ahead of Siniakova at No. 35.
Honorable Mention
Alexei Popyrin (-135) vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry
