2024 Kentucky Derby predictions, odds, horses, contenders: Surprising picks from proven horse racing insider

Posted by Admin April 29, 2024 Horse Racing

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (CBS SPORTS) – Churchill Downs is hallowed ground in horse racing and the best three-year-olds in the country will assemble under the Twin Spires for the 2024 Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 4. This is the 150th Run for the Roses and you can expect additional flair from one of the most stories events in sports. Meanwhile, the 2024 Kentucky Derby field is set after post draw over the weekend, and Todd Pletcher drew the No. 17 stall for Fierceness. The two-time Kentucky Derby winner trains the Repole Stable-owned colt that has already piled up $1.6 million in career earnings. Fierceness won the Florida Derby by 13.5 lengths and is the 5-2 favorite in the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds.

He’s followed by Sierra Leone (3-1), Catching Freedom (8-1) and Forever Young (10-1) in the 2024 Kentucky Derby futures. The 2024 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. With the Kentucky Derby annually featuring the largest field in North American racing, you’ll want to see what Santa Anita-based racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, considering the success she’s had handicapping this race.

Few people in racing are as well-connected as Yu. An on-air host and reporter who has provided racing analysis for TVG, HRTV and the Breeders’ Cup, Yu has spent a lifetime in racing. Prior to her television career, she worked for trainers Steve Asmussen and Ron Moquett. She also is married to Santa Anita-based trainer Ryan Hanson.

Yu also has tremendous handicapping chops. In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, she gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager two years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won the Derby.

Yu enters this year’s Kentucky Derby on a roll. She correctly called National Treasure to win the Pegasus World Cup. In the month leading up to the Kentucky Derby, she predicted Stronghold’s upset win in the Santa Anita Derby and smashed the exacta in the Apple Blossom Handicap.

For the first leg of the Triple Crown, Yu has handicapped the 2024 Kentucky Derby lineup, made her picks and constructed her best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions

One surprise: Yu is fading Fierceness, even though he is the 5-2 Kentucky Derby favorite. Fierceness is coming off a victory in the Florida Derby, but with that comes a substantial drop in his value. The Florida Derby winner is guaranteed a spot in the Kentucky Derby field, but only three horses have won the Kentucky Derby after winning the Florida Derby since 2010. Always Dreaming was the last horse to win those races back-to-back.

Fierceness has won three of five career races, but this will be his first run at Churchill Downs. Fierceness is trained by Todd Pletcher, who has produced just two Kentucky Derby winners in 62 starts. Pletcher’s last Kentucky Derby victory came in 2017 with Always Dreaming. There’s a lot to like about Fierceness’ previous success, but Yu doesn’t see the value in playing him as a favorite in a large 2024 Kentucky Derby field.

Another curveball: Yu is high on Just a Touch, even though he’s a longshot at 10-1 in the Kentucky Derby odds 2024. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. One of three entries for local Louisville trainer Brad Cox, Just a Touch is a sire of Justify out of Tapit mare Touching Beauty. Those are two legendary horses coming together, with Justify winning the 2015 Triple Crown and Tapit setting stud records throughout his career.

Just a Touch began his career by breaking his maiden in a six-furlong run at Fair Grounds and followed up with runner-up finishes against quality fields at the Gotham Stakes and Blue Grass Stakes, where he was beaten by derby qualifiers Sierra Leone and Deterministic (bypassing). The bloodline is unquestionable; it’s just a matter of whether or not Cox can coax out more improvement over this six-week layoff. You can see all of Yu’s 2024 Kentucky Derby bets here.

How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks

Moreover, Yu’s top pick is a horse who “will be happy to get the added ground” at Churchill Downs. She’s also high on a massive double-digit longshot who “showed some grit” in his last race. She is including these horses in her 2024 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She’s sharing which 2024 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2024 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back? And how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out.

2024 Kentucky Derby odds, contenders

1. Dornoch, 20-1

2. Sierra Leone, 3-1

3. Mystik Dan, 20-1

4. Catching Freedom, 8-1

5. Catalytic, 30-1

6. Just Steel, 20-1

7. Honor Marie, 20-1

8. Just a Touch, 10-1

9. Encino, 20-1

10. T O Password (JPN), 30-1