This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The third round of the French Open begins Friday. A pair of Canadian men will look to continue their resurgence against higher-ranked opponents. On the women’s side, past head-to-head history offers a potential preview of what’s to come in some of the more high-profile third-round matchups.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men’s singles matches at Grand Slams such as the French Open are best of five sets, while women’s singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players’ previous clay court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Paula Badosa (+290) vs. Aryna Sabalenka
This rivalry has had plenty of recent installments, as Sabalenka and Badosa are set for their third head-to-head meeting of 2024. Sabalenka has won their last four encounters to grab a 4-2 overall head-to-head edge, but their last match on the clay of Stuttgart in April was tied 3-3 in the third set when Badosa retired due to an injury. Sabalenka is the current world No. 2 and has been in far better form over the past year than the former world No. 2 Badosa, but Badosa will be playing with house money after already getting through two tight three-setters against top-40 opponents here, while all the pressure will be on Sabalenka against a player with a history of playing her tough.
Denis Shapovalov (+185) vs. Hubert Hurkacz
Hurkacz leads their head-to-head 4-1 and has a 110-spot edge in the rankings at No. 8, but these two are much closer in ability than that initial glance suggests. Shapovalov has been ranked as high as 10th in the world, and the 25-year-old Canadian is ascending again now that he finally seems recovered from a knee injury that affected his form for the past year. The last time these two played, it went five sets in the third round of the 2023 Australian Open, and this will be their first clay-court meeting. Both players have posted better results on faster surfaces, but the longer clay-court rallies should play into Shapovalov’s hands, as he’ll have more opportunities to go from defense to offense in the return game and utilize his superior power off the ground.
Honorable Mention
Matteo Arnaldi (+300) vs. Andrey Rublev
Elena Rybakina (-500) vs. Elise Mertens
Mertens is a high-floor, low-ceiling player, as this is the 23rd time she has reached at least the third round of a Grand Slam, but the 27th-ranked Belgian has made the quarterfinals or better only three times, with none of those deep runs coming after 2020. She’s unlikely to produce the superb level usually required to hang with Rybakina, who is 32-5 in 2024 and holds the No. 4 ranking. Rybakina leads their head-to-head 4-1, including three straight-sets Rybakina wins since Mertens notched her only victory just over three years ago.
Anastasia Potapova (-220) vs. Xinyu Wang
Potapova is ranked four spots behind Wang at No. 41, but the 23-year-old Russian has looked much more impressive than her 22-year-old Chinese opponent in this tournament. Neither has faced a seed yet, but Potapova has dropped only nine games through two matches, while Wang was pushed to a third set by each of her first two opponents. Potapova was ranked as high as No. 21 within the past year, and she’s in her second consecutive French Open third round, so this is a nice opportunity for her to finally break through to the second week of a major.
Honorable Mention
Liudmila Samsonova (-215) vs. Elisabetta Cocciaretto
Ons Jabeur (-155) vs. Leylah Fernandez
This matchup always seems to come down to the wire, but it has always ended in the same result. Jabeur is 3-0 against Fernandez, winning 6-3 in the third on hard court, 7-6 in the third on grass and 6-4 in the third on clay. The most recent match came just over a month ago on the clay courts of Madrid. It wouldn’t be surprising to see this one go the distance as well, but since Fernandez doesn’t have the power to hit through Jabeur, the diminutive Canadian gets stuck playing Jabeur’s cat-and-mouse game, so Jabeur’s able to dictate play in the biggest moments.
Felix Auger-Aliassime (-150) vs. Ben Shelton
Auger-Aliassime hasn’t been the same player since the start of 2023, but the 23-year-old Canadian is starting to emerge from that lengthy malaise. He reached the final of the Madrid Open, showing the clay-court bonafides that helped FAA become one of the few men to push Rafael Nadal to a fifth set at the French Open, which he did in the fourth round in 2022. Shelton is ranked 15th, which is six spots ahead of Auger-Aliassime at the moment, though Auger-Aliassime has been ranked as high as No. 6. The 21-year-old American hasn’t had much success on clay, though, with a 10-10 career record on the surface. Both are big servers with big forehands, and Shelton’s capable of going much bigger than FAA on the backhand, but Auger-Aliassime’s superior comfort and movement on clay should prove to be the difference.
Honorable Mention
Sofia Kenin (+115) vs. Clara Tauson
